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Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

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Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#31
post #18
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

then what happened in 2018 and 2013 where it lost 90% of its value?

What happened to Amazon in the two cases where it has drawn down 90% from a high?

yes this analogy works because amazon ships billions in packages with almost a trillion in revenue and btc can be replicated by a sql database

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#32
Don't know if anyone else made this mistake but: author is not saying bitcoin will 50/50 collapse tonight just some night this year.

> So the next time someone tries to explain to you that “Bitcoin is a store of value”, when the chances of it getting utterly destroyed overnight before the year is over are around 50/50, try not to shoot coffee through your nose laughing.

EDIT: Not saying I agree with the prediction, it's just a far more timid prediction than I initially thought.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#33
We're living in an era when it is easy to create new "currencies". Bitcoin is only the first, as some others have already been developed. The "value" of such currencies is a social construct. So, the price of BC will continue to grow as long as people have expectation that it will be valuable in the future.

The only problem I see in "investing" in BC is the counterpart risk, i.e., I don't trust any of the companies that do trading in BC. I think this problem is currently bigger than the "currency" itself.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it is intrinsically valuable How? As an intrinsically valuable means of speculation because sound investment opportunities are absent?

It has a social network effect of people who agree that it's the store of value for the future. Your paper dollar bill has very little intrinsic value. It's just a shared acceptance.

MMT people would say the intrinsic value of dollar is that you can pay your taxes in them. And if you can not you go to jail

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Crashes are just discounts” is one of the more pernicious financial memes around.

Crashes have always been discounts.

In theory that’s true if you’re holding long term instruments with reasonably stable value and growth (which is not guaranteed for crypto currencies) and happen to have the liquid cash to buy. But in practice it’s often not true, as most investors who try to “time the market” end up underperforming the actual instruments they trade in.

It’s really not true if you have any leverage at all, where a crash might increase your margin requirements or wipe you out entirely.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#37

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

It's primary purpose is a store of value that can't be manipulated by the government. It's succeeding wildly at this.

There's a lot of extreme Bitcoin hate on this site, but BTC is helping a ton of people right now, as evidenced by the rapidly increasing demand and money flowing into Bitcoin investment.

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#39

I hope the price tanks so that BTC will be primarily used for its intended purpose, like it was in the Silk Road days.

I’m far more selfish, I would just like to hear amateur investors stop talking about it. I’d really like for people to stop suggesting a database (blockchain) will fix any problem, even when problems are explicitly not database issues. I think we’re well past either of those things being possibilities though.

> I’d really like for people to stop suggesting a database (blockchain) will fix any problem

I'm developing a blockchain to block these people using sustainable AI. Want to get in on the initial coin offering?

Re: Bitcoin’s Overnight Collapse Probability Is About 50%

#40
post #23
post #5

Bitcoin is powered by a shared belief in its value. While it has been powered by scams as well, couch couch Tether, tt seems to be getting more adherents to believing that it is intrinsically valuable. The fact that it tends to go up so quickly also yields to FOMO. Because Bitcoin is just shared belief, it is hard to dispel that belief via real-world events such as earnings releases and other things that affect more…

Gold doesn't have earnings releases either.

It at least is tied to a physical thing. There are then limits to how high gold can go in price as higher prices means more will come to the market to sell it because the higher prices are not viewed as sustainable.

Whereas with bitcoin, it is fairly unmoored from physical constraints.

There is no natural price for bitcoin.

It could go up forever or drop to nothing and both are acceptable valuations that would be hard to question -- because it is merely shared belief.

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