Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping • Hacker News Board

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#31

Post by Robotbeat » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:05 PM UTC

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well.

There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage.

The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably pursuing pro-natalist policies as well), plus picking some of the best of what China is doing with investments in infrastructure and R&D while maintaining the freedom and vitalism that has helped the West in the past.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#32

Post by whimsicalism » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

statquontrarian wrote: post #17

rapsey wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with the west is that it is largely leaderless. Actions happen due to some interest group getting their way. China on the other hand is very much lead. I think the west constantly bringing up Chinese demographic and other issues is just the west being lazy and ignoring reality. China is becoming unstoppable. Democratic nations banding together or building new supply chains are pipe dreams.

Clearly leadership isn't sufficient. Central planning leadership under Mao led to poor results. Deng Xiaoping's reformation was to reduce centralized leadership. Nor is central planning leadership necessary. The early United States overtook Great Britain as the largest economy with minimal central planning leadership.

Central planning is not sufficient, but your comment doesn't show that it is not necessary.

Markets are fundamentally pretty different from when the US overtook GB as largest economy.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#33

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #6

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

It has been nearly impossible to find objective analysis of China. Most sources are either soft propaganda or irrational jingoism. What are some good sources for a rational discussion about China's growing dominance?

[deleted]

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#34

Post by zabardasth » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #22

simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#35

Post by est31 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:06 PM UTC

simonh wrote: post #12

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

Good luck building a phone outside of China.

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/shenzhen-global-hardware-capi...

Huawei had basically cornered the 5G technology, getting all competitors out of the market, but then Trump ended it.

China is buying strategically important technology companies from around the globe, like Kuka for example, and then moves the knowledge into their country.

If this trend continues, eventually we'll be in the same situation again where we have to imitate China, not vice versa. It's only a few hundred years ago when China sold extremely expensive porcelain to europe and we reverse engineered porcelain manufacturing (check out Johann Friedrich Böttger).

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#36

Post by lobotryas » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:07 PM UTC

RestlessMind wrote: post #28

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

Countries that want money. When you ally with China you get fat stacks for infrastructure and other development projects that those nations (Africa, SEA, Eastern Europe) simply can’t afford on their own. Now you owe China favor so you will do as they ask when they come to collect.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#37

Post by whimsicalism » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:09 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #31

echelon wrote: post #2

So is China going to surpass America to become the world's #1 economy? Or are the predictions that China's growth will decline true? Some analysts think China's population is too old and that youth will peter out, whereas others think that all the CCP has to do is ask its millennials to have more babies. Some analysts think that democratic nations will band together and give China the cold shoulder. China could just…

China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well. There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage. The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably…

One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China.

If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference between a scatter plot of "income vs. IQ in the US" and "wealth/assets vs. IQ in the US" to see at least part of the problem.

e: I'm downvoted, but concentration of hereditary wealth is definitely something dragging Western models down.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#38

Post by novok » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:09 PM UTC

est31 wrote: post #35

simonh wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is huge and powerful and still growing rapidly. It's nominal GDP is $15tn, compared to $20tn for the USA. However it's GDP per capita is 1/6th that of the USA because it has 4x the population. Of course the west, or the developed democracies are much more than just the USA. Also while China is catching up in many areas, it is far behind in many of the ones that really count. China's military infrastructure and…

Good luck building a phone outside of China. https://www.diamandis.com/blog/shenzhen-global-hardware-capi... Huawei had basically cornered the 5G technology, getting all competitors out of the market, but then Trump ended it. China is buying strategically important technology companies from around the globe, like Kuka for example, and then moves the knowledge into their country. If this trend continues, eventually we…

Porcelain isn't what runs the world. It's like citing how Italy has an expensive luxury good that they only know how to make there and therefore they are a top nation of the world, while they haven't been since the roman empire.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#39

Post by est31 » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:10 PM UTC

zabardasth wrote: post #34

whimsicalism wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It will take them another generation to catch up to the west in the ability to innovate in new technologies. I think you are in for a rude awakening.

Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.

China would be severely affected by such a measure as well. This is WTO's doing, and is a big reason why there has been no world war 3. It's easy to wage war if your economy is truly sovereign, but with a nation your economy is intertwined with, it's hard to wage with. Trump's anti-China policy, while it is sensible in many ways, could have the ill effect of enabling a major war in a few years.

Re: Dreams of a Red Emperor: The Relentless Rise of Xi Jinping

#40

Post by novok » Fri, Oct 23, 2020, 6:11 PM UTC

lobotryas wrote: post #36

RestlessMind wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China could just as easily form alliances. Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else. In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you t…

Countries that want money. When you ally with China you get fat stacks for infrastructure and other development projects that those nations (Africa, SEA, Eastern Europe) simply can’t afford on their own. Now you owe China favor so you will do as they ask when they come to collect.

What prevents countries from saying thanks china, we aren't going to pay and then allying with the rest of the west, or playing back and forth to negotiate ever better deals? The problem with infrastructure investment is it's hard to move.