I've been looking at the infection rates in the US falling over the past few weeks, and I'm wondering if it's because we achieved herd immunity for the current r0, people changed their behavior when they saw cases rising, or fewer people are getting tested because with the lag in processing time, a positive result isn't actionable.
Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
31–40 of 73 posts
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#32> 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310)
So between 1000 and 14 million. Got it.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#33I've been looking at the infection rates in the US falling over the past few weeks, and I'm wondering if it's because we achieved herd immunity for the current r0, people changed their behavior when they saw cases rising, or fewer people are getting tested because with the lag in processing time, a positive result isn't actionable.
The way that the areas that are now most resilient are the same areas with high population density which were hit very hard early on (NY, NJ, for example) tells me that we have somehow hit herd immunity. There is some evidence coming out that other coronaviruses (which cause the common cold) could have causes immunity in some unknown percentage of the population, meaning the percentage of SARS-CoV-2 infection required to reach herd immunity is much lower than thought.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#34> 108,689 (95% posterior predictive interval [95% PPI]: 1,023 to 14,182,310) So between 1000 and 14 million. Got it.
Not all of those numbers are equally likely though.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
The core result is > Simulating from 1 January, we obtained 108,689 (95% PPI: 1,023 to 14,182,310) local infections cumulatively in the United States by 12 March (Fig. 1A). What that means is that they don't really know - that confidence interval is absurd - but they have reason to think there could have been 100k Americans with the coronavirus on March 12.
Results with such confidence intervals should not be allowed to be published. As if we don't have enough fake news/hype going around.
Who’s the gatekeeper we trust to decide what can and can’t be published?
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#36I've been looking at the infection rates in the US falling over the past few weeks, and I'm wondering if it's because we achieved herd immunity for the current r0, people changed their behavior when they saw cases rising, or fewer people are getting tested because with the lag in processing time, a positive result isn't actionable.
In my area, the lag in testing results is only 24-36 hours (that’s for free city-provided testing without a requirement to suspect you have it or have been exposed [so utterly routine processing])
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#37It seems cases and pandemic related deaths are likely dramatically under reported and detected:
https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-death...
Real deaths seem to be closer to 250-300k at this point (whereas officially it’s 170k-180k).
Also testing is down for those curious... about 25% down from a month ago.
edit: added “pandemic related deaths” - not all deaths are necessarily covid, but could be from lack of healthcare availability, etc.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#38It seems cases and pandemic related deaths are likely dramatically under reported and detected: https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-death... Real deaths seem to be closer to 250-300k at this point (whereas officially it’s 170k-180k). Also testing is down for those curious... about 25% down from a month ago. edit : added “pandemic related deaths” - not all deaths are necessarily covid, but could be…
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm... has a similar graph as your link, but you can mouseover to get weekly numbers.
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#39It seems cases and pandemic related deaths are likely dramatically under reported and detected: https://austingwalters.com/u-s-covid19-less-tests-more-death... Real deaths seem to be closer to 250-300k at this point (whereas officially it’s 170k-180k). Also testing is down for those curious... about 25% down from a month ago. edit : added “pandemic related deaths” - not all deaths are necessarily covid, but could be…
I know for a fact deaths are dramatically under reported (at least in FL) because I have relatives that died of COVID and the nursing homes put congestive heart failure and respiratory failure as cause of death and not COVID. After receiving positive COVID test results...
Re: Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States
#40I've been looking at the infection rates in the US falling over the past few weeks, and I'm wondering if it's because we achieved herd immunity for the current r0, people changed their behavior when they saw cases rising, or fewer people are getting tested because with the lag in processing time, a positive result isn't actionable.
The way that the areas that are now most resilient are the same areas with high population density which were hit very hard early on (NY, NJ, for example) tells me that we have somehow hit herd immunity. There is some evidence coming out that other coronaviruses (which cause the common cold) could have causes immunity in some unknown percentage of the population, meaning the percentage of SARS-CoV-2 infection require…
Share the evidence or delete the comment as misinformation.