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How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

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Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#31

Post by TheGrim-888 »

crooked-v wrote: post #4

The tl;dr: > So now all of a sudden, that “but it’s only 1% fatal!” becomes: > 3,282,000 people dead. > 62,358,000 hospitalized. > 59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage. > 32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage. > 9,846,000 people with strokes. > 6,564,000 people with muscle weakness. > 6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function.

Where are these rates coming from? They seem absolutely absurd. Are you suggesting that 17% of the US population is going to have permanent heart damage, and that 3% of the population is going to have a stroke, from contracting covid? That seems completely disconnected from reality.

3.5MM people in the US (at least) have already tested positive. Are you trying to imply that over 100,000 of these people have had a stroke?

More related to the article - isn't the latest IFR estimate from the CDC even less than 1%?

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#32

Post by 6nf »

vicosity wrote: post #29
6nf wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid

Yeah but children are getting that inflammatory syndrome.. Thats pretty devastating. A life ruined but still alive can basically be counted as a death.

Even if you count those it will still round to zero

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#33

Post by Consultant32452 »

Eric_WVGG wrote: post #5

I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…

Only about 1% of the people dying from covid are under 35. That's the big monkey wrench. If it was kids dying, I think the perception would be very different. There's other factors even more difficult to discuss than age.

The state is powerless to shape policy in a way that adequately fits the risk due to Western culture's focus on individual rights. It's up to us to shape our behavior. Are we adult enough to have that kind of conversation? I am doubtful.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#35

Post by 6nf »

chillfox wrote: post #30
6nf wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid

That feels like a lie considering I keep seeing articles about young people dying from covid.

A quick google search will show many studies for covid mortality by age. The news media likes to tug on heart strings by pointing to kids or LGBT or black or whatever people affected by covid even though the numbers are miniscule.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#36

Post by saurik »

FabHK wrote: post #22
Eric_WVGG wrote: post #5

I find it useful and illuminating to just come up with some common large spaces and make a few estimates… - remember the last time you were at the movies? Three people dropped dead during your screening of Avengers. - two people dying per subway car on your morning rush hour commute into the city - seven of the kids in your child’s high school graduating class die. he probably knew at least a couple by name. … but th…

Another comparison I like to make - it's in the same ballpark as going on a Space Shuttle mission (2/135 = 1.5% crashed). Would you want to send your loved ones on a Space Shuttle ride (minus the yay, going to space thing)? And that's not accounting for the massive side effects, or the fact that the fatality risk is much higher for vulnerable populations.

FWIW, massive side effects and increased fatality risks for vulnerable populations are also true of going on a Space Shuttle mission :(.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#37

Post by akira2501 »

> Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what.

Wouldn't that largely depend on the age of the victims? If the majority of victims are over retirement age, then this isn't likely to be true.

We've had nearly 1% of our population killed or wounded in a short period of time before, it's impact on the economy doesn't seem that obvious.

> 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives. > 10 will have permanent lung damage.

The extent of these doesn't seem clear either, looking back to the previous SARS epidemic, there was significant ARDS recovery after diagnoses over a period of several years; however, with other certain pre-existing conditions the organ damage was permanent.

Even in those cases, the rates are significantly lower than this suggests. It seems like a lot of small sample size studies were used to generate these numbers. I don't doubt COVID is horrific and requires special care to address, but I don't see any benefit in exaggeration.. particularly if your goal is to address an already skeptical audience.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#38

Post by stoksc »

> (out of a sample of 100 people) For every one person who dies: * 19 more require hospitalization. * 18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.

> One study published in March found that out of 416 hospitalized Covid-19 patients, 19% showed signs of heart damage.

Assuming 19 in 100 require hospitalization, according to the study: 19% of 19 will have heart damage or 3.61. Similar breakdown for other points.

Disclaimer: shutdown was the right call and the point is still valid with smaller numbers (they’re still huge). Just pointing it out.

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#39

Post by 6nf »

topkai22 wrote: post #20
6nf wrote: post #7

What is the mortality rate of one of the more severe stains of the common cold or the flu? I'm sure we've had one of those that got to 0.5% or more in recent history? Does that mean 0.5% is too low to shut everything down?

I'm pretty sure the last time the flu got anywhere near a 0.5% IFR rate was the 1918 pandemic, which also devested the economy and resulted in shutdowns. Covid-19 also is substantially more transmissible than flu. There is nothing since 1918 that is comparable to where we are now, at least within the US context. Even the polio outbreaks (where in schools, movie theaters, pools and other features were shutdown to prot…

The 1918 pandemic was 2.5%

Just wanted to point that out since the way you worded your comment could lead people to believe that it was closer to 0.5%

Re: How can a disease with 1% mortality shut down the United States?

#40

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

6nf wrote: post #14
FabHK wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First, the flu doesn't have the other severe consequences outlined in the article. Second, basically everyone except small children has had the flu, and has some immunity to it, while we're all "immunologically naive" vis-a-vis SARS-CoV-2.

Young people are basically at 0% mortality from covid

"Basically at 0%" doesn't cut it with a national population of 330M.

0.02% of school age children ... yeah, that indeed rounds to zero ... it also rounds to 14-15k dead children.

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