A New Cold War Has Begun (2019) • Hacker News Board

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#31

Post by agumonkey » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:29 PM UTC

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #23

agumonkey wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Am I the only one to consider US massive economy as a lightyear remain ? It really seems that US (politics or companies) lost their ways and can't handle their own power. Inertia is not good enough.

The US economy has produced multiple new world-changing businesses every decade in living memory. The idea that it's solely coasting on inertia just doesn't make much sense.

Probably, I have only shallow gut feelings about this, but the financial blunders, the changes in education and technological differences around the globe (asia is becoming more and more independant and creative), the very very strange political state.. I'm not sure the thing will hold itself. I have this model where everything is non linear and if you stop claiming your position on the ladder, everything else will evaporate under your feet.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#32

Post by chrisco255 » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:32 PM UTC

NineStarPoint wrote: post #28

michaelborromeo wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control. I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy. To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political…

But what Trump represents to allies is not just an oscilating to conservative control. It represents the willingness of the american public to put someone in charge of foreign policy that has a complete disrespect for America’s allies, and a strong willingness to turn America more isolationist and less supportive of free trade. Ultimately, I don’t think Trump alone will really effect things long term though, no. If i…

We're in a cold war with China and our manufacturing base has eroded over the past 40 years thanks to free trade. Now we are in a relatively weak position to be fighting a cold war. Say what you will about Trump, but he did start calling out China with his 2016 run. I have no doubts about the U.S.'s adaptability but often times we have to get punched in the face before we really appreciate the gravity of the situation. Covid was that punch. If free trade costs you your autonomy and resiliency, then it's not worth it.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#33

Post by chrisco255 » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:35 PM UTC

loyukfai wrote: post #13

tibbydudeza wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that video is kind of dated ... we have the Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage.

There is a chance that the Americans can change that in a few months though. If so, Trump may become just a footnote in history, and hopefully a valuable lesson, at least for a few generations. Meanwhile, we people in Hong Kong and China can choose between "strongly support", "reluctantly support", "disapprovingly support", etc... Xi to continue as the head of PRC. Get out and vote. Ask the people around you to do so…

I see no evidence that Biden would be tough on China. He seems more likely to want to appease and try to profit from it than anything else.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#34

Post by sametmax » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:37 PM UTC

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #29

0x8BADF00D wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It so happens that whenever a country amasses more wealth than the US, they are maligned and considered evil. It happened in the 80s with Japan, and it is now happening with China. Except this time, the United States is broke. The US will Balkanize before anything happens to China.

It's probably the concentration camps, organ harvesting, and various other human rights violations, rather than the accumulation of wealth. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/asia/xinjiang-china-reeducati... https://nypost.com/2019/06/01/chinese-dissidents-are-being-e... https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/09/04/7570898...

There are many countries that do such things, but the US selectively chose who are the ennemy du jour, and most are not tagged as such. In fact, some of them are friends with the US.

What's more, I recall the US in the last 2 decades:

- went to a war by lying about WMD and against the entire world (at least the world represented by the UN) will, killing thousands

- deployed mass surveillance of its own people, introduced bypasses to Habeas corpus and legalized torture using the Patriot Act

- elected a man that is at the center of so many Clinton-size scandals in a row it became the new normal

Now, I don't even begin to claim I have a superior country, mine has done many terrible things.

But let's not pretend the US (or any other superpower's) behavior has anything to do with morality. It's either naive or dishonest.

However, labelling everything with "war" is, indeed, a very American thing to do.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#35

Post by 0x8BADF00D » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #29

0x8BADF00D wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It so happens that whenever a country amasses more wealth than the US, they are maligned and considered evil. It happened in the 80s with Japan, and it is now happening with China. Except this time, the United States is broke. The US will Balkanize before anything happens to China.

It's probably the concentration camps, organ harvesting, and various other human rights violations, rather than the accumulation of wealth. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/asia/xinjiang-china-reeducati... https://nypost.com/2019/06/01/chinese-dissidents-are-being-e... https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/09/04/7570898...

No country is perfect, especially the United States. How many war crimes have been committed in the last 50 years? China is not the enemy. We could learn a lot of positive things from them.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#36

Post by loufe » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:39 PM UTC

jackcosgrove wrote: post #24

shasheene wrote: post #5

Due to decades of Deng Xiaoping's One Child Policy, China is a slow motion demographic car crash that's impossible to stop. China will "get old before it gets rich", and the days of 6% growth aren't coming back. I recommend anyone interested in geopolitics and the world over the next 30 years to watch this lecture: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_AvNT3vyzr0 It's the best overview of the future wealth and strength of…

Chinese birthrates would have fallen anyways due to increasing education and prosperity. The one child policy only accelerated the decline. When it was lifted, birthrates hardly budged. Every developed country is a slow motion demographic car crash. China is in a bad position, I'll grant, because the CCP's legitimacy depends upon demographic dividend-scale growth rates when the dividend has already peaked. Democratic…

I think it's easy to say their "legitimacy" or "stability" depends on high growth rates, but I don't think that's necessarily the case. I would love to hear even one genuine expert on the subject make the case for a revolution in even the 30 years following a drop from insane growth back to earth.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#37

Post by BurningFrog » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:43 PM UTC

michaelborromeo wrote: post #16

tibbydudeza wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that video is kind of dated ... we have the Trump administration who in 4 years totally managed to end the standing of the US on the world stage.

I think the world more or less understands that American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control. I don’t think the world has forgotten about America’s massive military or its massive economy. To say Trump has “ended America’s standing” is extremely short sighted... Whether you like him or not, he has not changed in any material way the military or the economy or the political…

> American politics oscillates between periods of conservative control and liberal control

Trump is not a conservative, and he's not enacting especially conservative policies.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#38

Post by sametmax » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

0x8BADF00D wrote: post #35

s_y_n_t_a_x wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably the concentration camps, organ harvesting, and various other human rights violations, rather than the accumulation of wealth. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/10/asia/xinjiang-china-reeducati... https://nypost.com/2019/06/01/chinese-dissidents-are-being-e... https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/09/04/7570898...

No country is perfect, especially the United States. How many war crimes have been committed in the last 50 years? China is not the enemy. We could learn a lot of positive things from them.

China is in competition with a lot of countries, and in a race for power.

And it is a bloody dictature.

That's not the point. The point is: why does the US has to formulate systematically its antagonist positions as a War?

Given they have the biggest army in the world, this is the best way to have the most violent resolution of this antagonism.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#39

Post by Retric » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:45 PM UTC

loufe wrote: post #36

jackcosgrove wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese birthrates would have fallen anyways due to increasing education and prosperity. The one child policy only accelerated the decline. When it was lifted, birthrates hardly budged. Every developed country is a slow motion demographic car crash. China is in a bad position, I'll grant, because the CCP's legitimacy depends upon demographic dividend-scale growth rates when the dividend has already peaked. Democratic…

I think it's easy to say their "legitimacy" or "stability" depends on high growth rates, but I don't think that's necessarily the case. I would love to hear even one genuine expert on the subject make the case for a revolution in even the 30 years following a drop from insane growth back to earth.

China growth rate during recovery was actually depressed compared to several developing nations. So even the basic premise doesn’t fit the actual data.

Long term compare the People's Republic of China (China) and the Republic of China (Taiwan) after the war based on per capita GDP and the mainland is still catching up. The CPP maintained power after completely wrecking the countries economy, so a period of stagnation seems unlikely to be a major issue. More recently you can see how the CPP is placing Hong Kong’s economy as a lower priority than increased control.

While dictatorships like China can fall surprisingly quickly, I doubt slower growth is that critical of an issue.

Re: A New Cold War Has Begun (2019)

#40

Post by BurningFrog » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 6:47 PM UTC

ipnon wrote: post #7

The low-tech economies of China and America are integrated, but what about the high-tech ones? Can American companies create sub-apps on WeChat like Chinese ones can? As far as I know, US-Soviet trade was not comparable in scale to US-China trade. Did a lack of trade prolong the Cold War of the 20th century?

The Soviets hardly produced anything worth trading for.