Had no idea that we could trace tiny differences so elaborately, this is amazing and gives me hope.
Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
31–40 of 44 posts
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or people having just a mild variant which does not cause fever and airway problems. If they think it is something else, or don't care, it is just as well a transfer risk as asymptomatic individuals and in my opinion at least as likely.
Well, what are you supposed to do? If you have the snuffles, are you supposed to react like it's COVID, or react like it's just one of the million other colds and such going around every winter until things get bad enough that your symptoms concern you? If you react like it's COVID, then what - go to a hospital or otherwise burden the health system? All they can tell you is to quarantine yourself, unless/until it get…
> If you have the snuffles
If you just have the sniffles you probably shouldn't panic and go to the ER, but you should stay the hell away from big conventions and not go to work, at least within reason.
I work for a company that has unmetered sick leave (that you can take without people judging you), great VPN/work from home policy, and will actively shun people who come to work sick (that is, no one is even remotely close to being pressured to come for butt in seat time).
And people still come to work sniffling and coughing. I keep having to kick them back home day after day. Like, wtf, seriously.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#33Has anyone tried to play the "movie" in the map. As I understand it, there has already been back-propagation of the virus from North America back to Asia. Can anyone confirm this is actually the case? Edit: On a separate note, this tool is one of the best "web meets science" websites I've ever seen. Really nice work for those involved in its creation.
That backprop is most likely an artifact of a sample on a lineage being sequenced in North America, but the lineage also continues in Asia, where that lineage had not been sequenced yet. As in, someone in Asia spread COVID-19 to two people, one of whom traveled to North American and had their virus sequenced. The lineage also continued in Asia and was eventually sequenced days/weeks later, so the inferred tree includ…
My father in law is a pilot (currently not showing any systems virus) has been back and forth between China, Korea, HK (Guangzou most recently) at least 3 times since January. His last trip he was one of only 30 people in the hotel, being monitored every 30 minutes or so for fever while on a layover. His company is still scheduling him trips there, so I have no doubt with companies still requiring similar travel that it could have easily gotten back to China from someone who has been in the US over the past few months, now that we know it has been in the wild here for at LEAST 6 weeks.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
Iran isn't represented in this dataset. Neither is Africa or New Zealand. I'm not sure what's meant to be ominous about any of this.
We know the virus is widespread in Iran. We don't know if it is widespread in Africa or New Zealand.
Here in New Zealand we are at 3 confirmed cases, one of which was an individual who recently return from Iran. There is a case that there are more yet undetected cases, but I suspect we are currently talking about dozens of people rather than "widespread" outbreak.
Most of the initial testing was sent to Australia and I'm not sure what capability NZ medical labs have yet and I doubt they are sequencing much. There is a chance that the Iranian was sequenced, with media referred to a "deeper" testing protocol after initial tests where negative.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or people having just a mild variant which does not cause fever and airway problems. If they think it is something else, or don't care, it is just as well a transfer risk as asymptomatic individuals and in my opinion at least as likely.
This variant has killed two people already, so it's not too mild.
If it has only killed two (either one or both patients at a nursing home) after spreading undetected for 6 weeks, then there is reason to hope it is a less fatal variant.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Estimates are dropping down from 2% as we discover lots of cases that were mild or asymptomatic. The New England Journal of Medicine says it may likely be considerably less than 1%: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387 People should remember the context of a respiratory disease in China. 2/3rds of men smoke, and air pollution is common. Things also spread faster there as it’s densely populated with lowe…
Suppose you're right about reasons why it spreads fast & lethally in China. How do you explain the fast spread and lethality outside China?
The latest numbers from the WHO say that although CFR was much higher in January, a new case in China in March will have a CFR of 0.7%.
They are guessing this shift could be due to a combination of reduced transmission load and refining treatment protocols.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well, what are you supposed to do? If you have the snuffles, are you supposed to react like it's COVID, or react like it's just one of the million other colds and such going around every winter until things get bad enough that your symptoms concern you? If you react like it's COVID, then what - go to a hospital or otherwise burden the health system? All they can tell you is to quarantine yourself, unless/until it get…
> If you have the snuffles If you just have the sniffles you probably shouldn't panic and go to the ER, but you should stay the hell away from big conventions and not go to work, at least within reason. I work for a company that has unmetered sick leave (that you can take without people judging you), great VPN/work from home policy, and will actively shun people who come to work sick (that is, no one is even remotely…
I agree 100% for myself - I always self quarantine and work remote when I have a cold. However, you gotta remember that the vast majority of people still need to be physically present and can't work remote; and most of them have far more limited sick leave policies, sometimes including only partial pay, etc.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
That backprop is most likely an artifact of a sample on a lineage being sequenced in North America, but the lineage also continues in Asia, where that lineage had not been sequenced yet. As in, someone in Asia spread COVID-19 to two people, one of whom traveled to North American and had their virus sequenced. The lineage also continued in Asia and was eventually sequenced days/weeks later, so the inferred tree includ…
My father in law is a pilot (currently not showing any systems virus) has been back and forth between China, Korea, HK (Guangzou most recently) at least 3 times since January. His last trip he was one of only 30 people in the hotel, being monitored every 30 minutes or so for fever while on a layover. His company is still scheduling him trips there, so I have no doubt with companies still requiring similar travel that…
mmmrtl's explanation seems more parsimonious.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
This variant has killed two people already, so it's not too mild.
If it has only killed two (either one or both patients at a nursing home) after spreading undetected for 6 weeks, then there is reason to hope it is a less fatal variant.
It takes several weeks to kill. It just killed 4 more people overnight.
Re: Genomic epidemiology of novel coronavirus (HCoV-19)
#40China always wants to be seen as a global influencer. Now they certainly are, to their great shame.
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