Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth? • Hacker News Board

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#31

Post by pacala » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:34 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #17

mytailorisrich wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can have sustainability and prosperity. It's a triangle: prosperity, sustainability, population. Choose 2 (and obviously if you don't choose sustainability the sh*t is going to hit the fan at some point anyway). The key issue is the global population. (Edit: We're discussing life on this planet. Colonising space obviously means that human population may continue to grow, but not on Earth and not using Earth' resou…

why can humans not expand interplanetarily? Then, inter-stellarly, then finally, inter-galactically?

Because of interplanetary transportation costs, due to physically unavoidable planetary gravity wells, the existence of other inhabited planets has essentially zero effect on the prosperity of the average Earth inhabitant. There is physically no way to build the space equivalent of cheap maritime shipping.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#32

Post by Retric » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:34 PM UTC

samdung wrote: post #7

As long as you have short term growth targets (quarterly financial results) you cannot get big businesses to reckon with the environment. The only possible way is for people to stop buying unwanted stuff just because it is cheap.

Taxes can account for externalities. Smog is a great example where modern western cities have higher air quality and much stronger economies.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#33

Post by novalis78 » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:37 PM UTC

It’s fascinating how the reality of Earth being embedded in a vast ocean of resource is completely lost on so many. Human ingenuity is key. With every step we unlock another level of resource utilization driving prosperity. If anything social organization and financial frameworks need to support the unfolding of our technology tree. As humanity we just woke up. Enlightenment now.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#34

Post by beefield » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:38 PM UTC

chii wrote: post #15

_red wrote: post #2

Debt-based monetary systems will skew towards ever increasing growth.

The way I think of it is that in order for debt to exist, interest on the debt must be paid. But to pay interest, you must create more value than the debt you incurred, otherwise you'd not have enough to pay the interest! But the other side of debt is somebody's deposit. So if you summed the debt, it must be equal to all deposit. So from where would the interest come from? It must come from new production. But intere…

I think there is something wrong with your premises. There is no rule of law nor nature that interest must be paid. Negative or zero interest are completely possible.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#35

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:39 PM UTC

oblio wrote: post #22

atemerev wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, which country would you want to depopulate first?

I vote that we start with the country that uses the most resources per capita, and that pollutes the most per capita :-P

[deleted]

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#36

Post by nickik » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:39 PM UTC

b0rsuk wrote: post #28

Growth is an international arms race. I think the biggest problem is that economic growth gives countries a (military) advantage. If you opt out of growth-based economic system, your neighbors will have more army or resources or manpower. They will eventually invade you or dominate you economically. This is similar to the situation Africans were during Industrial Revolution. Europeans needed a lot of workers for fact…

> I think the biggest problem is that economic growth gives countries a (military) advantage. If you opt out of growth-based economic system, your neighbors will have more army or resources or manpower. They will eventually invade you or dominate you economically.

Or the population including the elites get sick of living poor country and the wont defend the government letting it be overthrown.

> Back to prosperity without growth. To resist pressure from neighboring states that practice economic growth, you would need to continuously improve efficiency and that's hard.

If you are improving efficiency your economy is growing. Unless you assume people will deliberately use less resources once efficiency grows and I don't think that has ever happened.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#37

Post by Double_a_92 » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:39 PM UTC

If an industry has grown so much that it can fulfill all the demand the market has for it, why does it need more growth?

So "growth" would come from changing demands eventually.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#38

Post by merpnderp » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:40 PM UTC

b0rsuk wrote: post #28

Growth is an international arms race. I think the biggest problem is that economic growth gives countries a (military) advantage. If you opt out of growth-based economic system, your neighbors will have more army or resources or manpower. They will eventually invade you or dominate you economically. This is similar to the situation Africans were during Industrial Revolution. Europeans needed a lot of workers for fact…

1% growth difference over 100 years is the difference between the per capita income of the US vs Mexico. So yes, unless you arbitrarily limit the entire globe to some level of prosperity like a novel about a disutopian world ruled by an evil anti-science theocracy, people are going to look at countries growing faster than them and wonder why they have to slum it like peasants without their flying cars and vacations on the moon.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#39

Post by fjfaase » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:40 PM UTC

I am getting the impression that growth is largely an illusion, because there is also something like inflation. And it also seems that it is mostly the (very) rich that benefit from the growth.

Re: Can We Have Prosperity Without Growth?

#40

Post by ericmay » Tue, Feb 04, 2020, 12:41 PM UTC

aww_dang wrote: post #25

mytailorisrich wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can have sustainability and prosperity. It's a triangle: prosperity, sustainability, population. Choose 2 (and obviously if you don't choose sustainability the sh*t is going to hit the fan at some point anyway). The key issue is the global population. (Edit: We're discussing life on this planet. Colonising space obviously means that human population may continue to grow, but not on Earth and not using Earth' resou…

Malthus was proven wrong by productivity gains. England did not starve due to a rising population, but went on to become an industrialized nation. Increased population allows for greater specialization. This only holds true as long as free markets are allowed to operate somewhat unimpeded. Typically the Malthusian position is one that advocates excessive government intervention. When taken to an extreme this can make…

> Increased population allows for greater specialization

Can you elaborate on this point w.r.t the OP you’re discussing?