I don't know the background to this but if I understand correctly, it kind of pivots on the probability that the mugger is indeed an Operator from the Seventh Dimension, that Pascal places at 1 in a quadrillion. In that case, I have to wonder where this estimate comes from? I get that it's just an arbitrary number and that any number would do, as long as it wasn't zero, but that's exactly the point: why can't Pascal…
If you set the probability at zero, you won't be convinced when they actually are an operator from the seventh dimension. That is to say, you run into the opposite problem of being Pascal's Muggle [1]. 1: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ap4KfkHyxjYPDiqh2/pascal-s-m... > A wind begins to blow about the alley, whipping the Mugger's loose clothes about him as they shift from ill-fitting shirt and jeans into robes of inf…
* Helping a googleplex of people immediately vs over a period of time are two different complexities of action.
* Recall that hypotheses are selected from an ambient pool of possibilities. Then we might imagine that some hypotheses dominate others, so that regardless of how much evidence is offered, we always insist that the evidence supports a simpler alternative. To wit:
"Well, if I'm not a Matrix Lord, then how do you explain my amazing powers?" asks the Mugger.
"Street magic," you say. "Very impressive sleight of hand. Perhaps some smoke, mirrors, lasers, assistants."
* A Matrix Lord asking $5 of a person on the street in order to commit miracles is inherently irrational. If they just wanted $5, or wanted to deprive the person of $5, or wanted to humiliate and embarrass the person, or force them to accept certain philosophical truths, then those all could be achieved via Matrix Lordery. Therefore the Lord in this story is being a pointless dick, and it's silly to expect rational arguments to be part of the conversation. To wit:
"Just give yourself $5. Give yourself any reward you like, for helping people; it's not my place to set or fulfill the price of such powerful entities, is it?" you ask.
"But...but don't you want the feeling of doing good?" asks the Mugger.
"Not really, no," you reply. "I have investments and equity already, and those dollars already have ripples that affect people far beyond my direct control. I don't feel much of anything about those investments. And it would be irrational for me to value a $5 investment more than $5. Really, if you can do all of this good, then you should turn yourself into an exchange-traded fund, and let people buy your time to do good in the world," you muse.
"But...but this offer is for you, and you alone," the Mugger insists.
"Okay, but why me? Let's talk about the Self-Sampling Assumption!" you say. The Mugger groans.
