Why the Amazon Is on Fire • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#31

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:47 AM UTC

vfc1 wrote: post #16

endorphone wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The Amazon is on fire in order for Brasil to be able to provide cheap meat for western countries." The largest markets for Brazil beef are, in order, Hong Kong, China, Russia, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Chile, and Venezuela. I don't think this qualifies as "Western Countries". A very small amount, relative to those consumers, goes to the EU. Close to none goes to the United States or Canada -- a minuscule novelty am…

And where do those countries and the west get their soy? The top export of Brasil are soy beans (for cattle feed), it's a 26 billion market - https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra/#targetText=The%20t... .

[deleted]

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#32

Post by vfc1 » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:47 AM UTC

f00zz wrote: post #23

vfc1 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And where do those countries and the west get their soy? The top export of Brasil are soy beans (for cattle feed), it's a 26 billion market - https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra/#targetText=The%20t... .

US is the largest soybean producer in the world

The US trade wars with China is one of the main reasons why the Soy bean production in Brasil has increased in recent years - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-grains/brazil-ride...

I know that the US is self-sufficient in meat, both in terms of raising the cattle and the soy and corn crops that feed it.

Actually, a large portion of the US is dedicated to meat production, both in pasture land and feed crops - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/

Which is insane if you ask me, a horrendous waste of resources.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#33

Post by erikw » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:48 AM UTC

vfc1 wrote: post #5

The main responsibility of the Amazon fires lies in the west. The Amazon is on fire in order for Brasil to be able to provide cheap meat for western countries. This comes under two main forms, one is to make room for soy crops, used mostly for cattle feed and not for direct human consumption, the other is for creating pasture land. The west, as well as China, encourage the Amazon fires by favorable trade agreements w…

Anyone familiar with a low carbon footprint meat brand or certification? Seems like an interesting market opportunity. I didn't find a source for child comment re "the West" not being a primary market for Brazilian beef exports, but it doesn't sound unreasonable. Nevertheless, my understanding is that the entire beef supply chain has a massive carbon footprint, and I would think that there is a market for upscale US-raised carbon neutral beef.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#34

Post by tannhaeuser » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:48 AM UTC

vfc1 wrote: post #5

The main responsibility of the Amazon fires lies in the west. The Amazon is on fire in order for Brasil to be able to provide cheap meat for western countries. This comes under two main forms, one is to make room for soy crops, used mostly for cattle feed and not for direct human consumption, the other is for creating pasture land. The west, as well as China, encourage the Amazon fires by favorable trade agreements w…

France and Ireland are on the brink to block ratification of the Mercosur free-trade treaties so there's that. I believe Germany (and Scandinavian countries eg. Norway has already cancelled paying into the Amazonas found, though not sure this is counter-productive) could be pressured by public opinion as well.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#35

Post by glogla » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:48 AM UTC

wsxcde wrote: post #9

If you are seriously concerned about climate change, pressure your government to impose a large tax on beef and pay the proceeds from that tax directly to the people living in the amazon basin. That will incentivize them against deforestation. Expecting poor people to voluntarily give up on the opportunity to make money because you are threatened about your children's future but can't even be arsed to reduce your own…

Beef is like 2 % of humanity's emissions. Gasoline-based transportation and electricity (mostly from coal power plants) are together like 60 %.

It's obvious which one we need to focus on. Stop it with the beef already. We need data driven approach. We really really don't need hysteria based approach where something (like beef) is declared sinful.

(see https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emis...)

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#36

Post by vfc1 » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:51 AM UTC

endorphone wrote: post #29

vfc1 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And where do those countries and the west get their soy? The top export of Brasil are soy beans (for cattle feed), it's a 26 billion market - https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra/#targetText=The%20t... .

Since you've edited your comment to now be about soy, the US and Canada are both entirely self-sufficient with soy and are major exporters. The EU does import soy from Brazil but it is a tiny consumer (and dropping) relative to China. Again, not the West. What's next? Adam Smith and the creation of capitalism?

Answered above in another comment, AFIK the Amazon is being torn down mostly for cattle feed crops, soy and others.

A lot of the soy is exported all over the world, to china due to the trade wars with the US, to western countries which need cattle feed but don't have the land to produce those crops.

Developing nations have limited meat consumption still, the biggest consumers of meat is the west in general. The cattle feed needs to come from somewhere, a lot of it comes from the Amazon.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#37

Post by bni » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:52 AM UTC

hu3 wrote: post #14

bni wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dry season just started.

It started in July.

And ends in November. My chart reading skills are notoriously bad, but I interpreted the linked chart as "year to date", not expected outcome.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#38

Post by endorphone » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:54 AM UTC

vfc1 wrote: post #36

endorphone wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since you've edited your comment to now be about soy, the US and Canada are both entirely self-sufficient with soy and are major exporters. The EU does import soy from Brazil but it is a tiny consumer (and dropping) relative to China. Again, not the West. What's next? Adam Smith and the creation of capitalism?

Answered above in another comment, AFIK the Amazon is being torn down mostly for cattle feed crops, soy and others. A lot of the soy is exported all over the world, to china due to the trade wars with the US, to western countries which need cattle feed but don't have the land to produce those crops. Developing nations have limited meat consumption still, the biggest consumers of meat is the west in general. The cattl…

That doesn't answer anything. Brazil's meat and soy exports are overwhelmingly to destinations that are not the West. China did indeed shift a lot of consumption from Canada and the US towards Brazil. That's not Canada and the US' fault, and is 100% the actions and malice of China in trying to be punitive.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#39

Post by xienze » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:54 AM UTC

vfc1 wrote: post #16

endorphone wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The Amazon is on fire in order for Brasil to be able to provide cheap meat for western countries." The largest markets for Brazil beef are, in order, Hong Kong, China, Russia, Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Chile, and Venezuela. I don't think this qualifies as "Western Countries". A very small amount, relative to those consumers, goes to the EU. Close to none goes to the United States or Canada -- a minuscule novelty am…

And where do those countries and the west get their soy? The top export of Brasil are soy beans (for cattle feed), it's a 26 billion market - https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra/#targetText=The%20t... .

From your link:

>The top exporters of Soybeans are Brazil ($25.9B), the United States ($22B), Argentina ($2.82B), Paraguay ($2.19B) and Canada ($1.91B). The top importers are China ($36.6B), Mexico ($1.72B), the Netherlands ($1.6B), Japan ($1.41B) and Spain ($1.31B).

It would appear China is the one with the insatiable appetite for soy, not the US and Canada.

Re: Why the Amazon Is on Fire

#40

Post by esailija » Fri, Aug 23, 2019, 11:55 AM UTC

wsxcde wrote: post #9

If you are seriously concerned about climate change, pressure your government to impose a large tax on beef and pay the proceeds from that tax directly to the people living in the amazon basin. That will incentivize them against deforestation. Expecting poor people to voluntarily give up on the opportunity to make money because you are threatened about your children's future but can't even be arsed to reduce your own…

Every "wallet voter" is in a kind of "prisoner's dilemma" with each other where it won't do anything if they stop unless everyone else stops too. But if everyone else stops then they can continue. Everoyne is aiming to be the one who can continue while everyone else stops thus nothing happens. Every collective downside of any consumption (and because of requirements for infinite growth there is always collective downside no matter what) will always go away if someone is the only one doing it.

So you cannot see or understand the system by looking at an individual. System that divides people into making rational individual decisions (called free market economy) without any real way to conspire co-operation is always going to result in something that is irrational for everyone as a whole. Everyone has to "defect" and for every person you convince against their self-interest to "co-operate" there will be 10 more "defecting". If you want best possible overall result you need entirely different system like centrally planned economy which for example walmart and amazon already uses.

If you attempt to fix the system instead changing it entirely you will just end up making it worse because of regulatory capture. The fault I described cannot be fixed because it would be contradictory to the very foundation, so instead of actually fixing anything it will make the system even more unfair and perverted.