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The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

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Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#31

Post by athenot »

taneq wrote: post #22
js8 wrote: post #5

I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious! So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.

The advice my mum gave me was similar: If you don't know which way to choose, flip a coin, and see how you feel about the outcome . That will tell you what you really wanted to choose.

That is also the poem in the conclusion of the article:

Whenever you’re called on to make up your mind,

and you’re hampered by not having any,

the best way to solve the dilemma, you’ll find,

is simply by spinning a penny.

No—not so that chance shall decide the affair while you’re passively standing there moping;

but the moment the penny is up in the air, you suddenly know what you’re hoping.

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#32

Post by gowld »

taneq wrote: post #22
js8 wrote: post #5

I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious! So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.

The advice my mum gave me was similar: If you don't know which way to choose, flip a coin, and see how you feel about the outcome . That will tell you what you really wanted to choose.

That could be a psychological trick that uses buyer's remorse to push you to choose whichever the coin did not choose. And also what you "feel you want" is not the same was what you will be happy having chosen. (Forecasted utility vs experienced utility vs remembered utility is a researcher program in behavioral economics).

I do seem to recall a research paper that showed that the coin trick worked well, in an experimental setting with people deciding whether to get married or break up!

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#33

Post by gowld »

amboo7 wrote: post #6
js8 wrote: post #5

I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious! So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.

Better, take both if possible.

cf. Never Split the Difference

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#34

Post by gowld »

kekebo wrote: post #21
kaybe wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there a good way to notice you're doing subvocal speech?

Mindfulness type exercises / learning internal silence was the only effective strategy i found. I can still get carried away in my thoughts but there's a learned recurring return into silence that also gives room for meta cognitions of various sorts. The more I "practice" the more subconscious those silent moments appear, the higher their frequency and the easier it is to maintain longer stretches of them - and the m…

Doea that help you notice , or help you get better at suppressing it via practice and "muscle memory"?

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#35

Post by tayo42 »

mistermann wrote: post #24
kekebo wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mindfulness type exercises / learning internal silence was the only effective strategy i found. I can still get carried away in my thoughts but there's a learned recurring return into silence that also gives room for meta cognitions of various sorts. The more I "practice" the more subconscious those silent moments appear, the higher their frequency and the easier it is to maintain longer stretches of them - and the m…

There is also growing evidence that microdosing psychedelics like LSD or psilocybin can be beneficial: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willburns/2018/02/26/the-beckle... What's happening in the brain exactly that gives people an advantage? What is the brain science behind microdosing LSD? The effects of microdosing in the brain are not known, which is why I am setting up an international research program to investigate…

This sounds interesting, I wish I knew enough to critically analyze it.

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#36

Post by smallnamespace »

Is 'thinking about thinking' correctly actually an unsolvable problem?

Let's say I'm trying to do X.

- Level 0 might be: do the first thing that comes to mind

- Level 1 may be 'consider your possible choices and do a cost-benefit analysis'

Most people would say that Level 1 is preferable, but only for 'weighty' decisions where the cost of thinking is outweighed by the benefit of making a better decision. For example, nobody does rational deliberation for 'should I brake at this red light?'

So in practice, we seem to do some level of rational metacognition that takes into account the cost of thinking about a problem.

What about level 3? Are there large classes of problems where it's not really worth it to 'think about whether to think' - you should always ponder them, or never? And what about levels beyond yet?

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#37

Post by mercer »

Bartweiss wrote: post #27
thisoneworks wrote: post #17

Thinking should be a time boxed activity, with time proportional to the priority of the thing at hand. As a classic overthinker I've realized my overthinking is a weird amalgamation of perfectionism and procrastination. That took me a long time to accept, since I've always rationalized my overthinking as ultimately a good thing. If you assume that action (instead of thinking) is the primary unit in the world, then yo…

This was a hugely helpful insight for me. First, because I found it much easier to accept "deliberating has a cost, factor that in" than a generalized claim of "stop thinking so much". Second, because thinking more really does help sometimes. "Go with your gut" doesn't sit well with me; every once so often I think about a decision and notice that I've made some major oversight in my first assessment. Aiming for the '…

I think going with your gut can be a fine solution, but it's probably worth assessing how well your gut has served you historically.

For me, my gut has generally been more right than my over-analytical mind. But I have a number of friends where I think it's the other way around.

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#38

Post by tachyonbeam »

thisoneworks wrote: post #17

Thinking should be a time boxed activity, with time proportional to the priority of the thing at hand. As a classic overthinker I've realized my overthinking is a weird amalgamation of perfectionism and procrastination. That took me a long time to accept, since I've always rationalized my overthinking as ultimately a good thing. If you assume that action (instead of thinking) is the primary unit in the world, then yo…

I found it also useful to realize that there are many situations in life where there are just too many unknowns. You're faced with two possible futures: should I go to University A or B? This choice is necessarily going to radically alter your life: depending which university you pick, you'll make different friends, date different people, hang out in different spots, maybe live in different cities. Based on this choice, the life you'll have in 5 years will be completely different. How do you pick which future to choose from, which one is better?

The thing is, you simply have no way to know. What exact future you'll end up with is about as predictable as the weather on this day five years from now. You have no idea who are the people you haven't yet met that are going to change your life, what roadblocks you'll find on the way, whether you'll suddenly fall into a depression, etc. You can only rely on objective metrics (trends, statistics), testimonials, and general gut feeling.

For myself, 3 years ago, after my studies, I was wondering whether I should relocate to silicon valley for a big tech job or not. It was scary. I loved my hometown, had many friends, etc. I figured, however, that I might as well do this sort of experiment (moving to another city/country) while I'm young and have no spouse or property. I did make the move, and unfortunately, I didn't enjoy my big tech job, nor did I enjoy living in silicon valley, it wasn't a good experience, so I moved back, thankfully with a decent wad of cash to wipe my tears with.

I didn't like silicon valley, but I don't regret my decision to try it. Why, because I also knew that I kind of had to try it, because if I didn't, there might always be some FOMO in the back of my mind (what if I'd taken this big silicon valley job, would my live be better right now?). Now I've done it, I've been there, and I know what it's like. The pressure/temptation is gone. So my two cents are to trust your gut, do commit to decisions, and also don't be overly afraid of experimenting when you're young: it might not work out, but you'll learn something along the way.

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#39

Post by mistermann »

tayo42 wrote: post #35
mistermann wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is also growing evidence that microdosing psychedelics like LSD or psilocybin can be beneficial: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willburns/2018/02/26/the-beckle... What's happening in the brain exactly that gives people an advantage? What is the brain science behind microdosing LSD? The effects of microdosing in the brain are not known, which is why I am setting up an international research program to investigate…

This sounds interesting, I wish I knew enough to critically analyze it.

I believe we lack enough fundamental knowledge to critically analyse it with any sort of certainty, most of what is known comes from theory combined with individual experiences.

This book is often recommended:

https://www.amazon.com/Psychedelic-Explorers-Guide-Therapeut...

Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]

#40

Post by copperx »

tachyonbeam wrote: post #38
thisoneworks wrote: post #17

Thinking should be a time boxed activity, with time proportional to the priority of the thing at hand. As a classic overthinker I've realized my overthinking is a weird amalgamation of perfectionism and procrastination. That took me a long time to accept, since I've always rationalized my overthinking as ultimately a good thing. If you assume that action (instead of thinking) is the primary unit in the world, then yo…

I found it also useful to realize that there are many situations in life where there are just too many unknowns. You're faced with two possible futures: should I go to University A or B? This choice is necessarily going to radically alter your life: depending which university you pick, you'll make different friends, date different people, hang out in different spots, maybe live in different cities. Based on this choi…

I'm halfway reading "Stumbling on Happiness," and one takeaway is that indeed people are happier when they take action and it doesn't turn out to be as expected, than when they do nothing. Your experience fits exactly that.

Coincidentally, I'm reading the book because I'm trying to decide whether to leave my small city teaching job at a and move to SV to get a big tech job. And the book and your experience suggest that it is better to leave and fail to thrive than to never leave at all. But may I ask why didn't you like it, or what should I look out for?

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