The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
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The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
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Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#2My problem with thinking too much is when I'm faced with a decision, I find I often have a preferred course of action already in mind and whether that course happens to be objectively better than the alternative is completely immaterial to my ability to think long and abstractly enough about it to reason myself into believing that it is. I have had to train myself to turn off this abstract thinking as necessary. The upshot is when I do, the actual correct answer to the situation often strongly presents itself and immediately seems obvious.
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#3My problem with thinking too much is when I'm faced with a decision, I find I often have a preferred course of action already in mind and whether that course happens to be objectively better than the alternative is completely immaterial to my ability to think long and abstractly enough about it to reason myself into believing that it is. I have had to train myself to turn off this abstract thinking as necessary. The…
Reminds me how chess players (gm) don't calculate 15 moves (for one variation) ahead instead they see 3 moves ahead that are GOOD
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#4Like we learn how to use our hands one should learn how to use our brains when needed, and when not needed how to put it down, that's all.
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#5I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious!
So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#6I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious! So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.
Better, take both if possible.
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#7I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious! So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.
Better, take both if possible.
Or try to redefine the problem so you can widen your perspective and come up with other possible solutions.
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#8This made my day:
To be honest, the academic discussion doesn't shed much light on the practical problem. Here's an illustration: Some years ago I was trying to decide whether or not to move to Harvard from Stanford.I had bored my friends silly with endless discussion. Finally, one of them said, "You're one of our leading decision theorists. Maybe you should make a list of the costs and benefits and try to roughly calculate your expected utility. "Without thinking, I blurted out, "Come on, Sandy, this is serious."
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#9This made my day: To be honest, the academic discussion doesn't shed much light on the practical problem. Here's an illustration: Some years ago I was trying to decide whether or not to move to Harvard from Stanford.I had bored my friends silly with endless discussion. Finally, one of them said, "You're one of our leading decision theorists. Maybe you should make a list of the costs and benefits and try to roughly ca…
Thanks for this find!
The same story, minus the "Sandy", is attributed to the pseudonym Triffat in Antifragile. In light of this text, I think Taleb mischaracterized Diaconis. At least I never would have imagined that the quote was a story "Triffat" was telling about himself!
Re: The Problem of Thinking Too Much (2003) [pdf]
#10I have realized some time ago that when some decision is difficult to make, it is likely that both outcomes are equally good (or bad), or at least, equally indeterminable. If one of them was much better, then the decision would be obvious! So indeed, if you can't decide, spin a penny. You save time and the outcome will be similar.
In similar situations, I’ve often discovered that I’m hoping the penny will fall one particular way. When that happens, I don’t look at the actual answer and go with the one my subconscious apparently wanted.