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IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

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Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#31
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're still solid in the supercomputer space, no? BlueGene, and Summit and Sierra more recently are IBM projects. Admittedly though given their pretty large size I can't name much else.

> Admittedly though given their pretty large size I can't name much else. Exactly. Even if 20,000 people worked on those supercomputers, mainframes and Watson, what do the other 350,000 employees work on? Consulting, and it's been that way since Gerstner.

and what is "consulting"?

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#32

I worked on this project and there were a lot of issues. Two of the biggest were: * Whatever the quality of the technology (which I personally never saw as that compelling) was wrapped up in terribly written research code, making it practically impossible to setup and use. * The Jeopardy demo was made possible by the existence of a marked-up source of general knowledge (Wikipedia), a ready-made bank of questions and…

That's not really true. The UMLS has a large graph of marked up medical domain knowledge that can be used. It's not as specific as one might want for developing an AI autodoc, but it's quite a bit better than what is available in most fields. It's actually quite similar to what one can derive from Wikipedia.

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#33
post #17

I think quite a few companies(and maybe even a good majority of them) will end up overpromising and underdelivering when it comes to AI products.

That will likely include Google with their effort to use "AI" in data analysis and search.

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#34
post #32

I worked on this project and there were a lot of issues. Two of the biggest were: * Whatever the quality of the technology (which I personally never saw as that compelling) was wrapped up in terribly written research code, making it practically impossible to setup and use. * The Jeopardy demo was made possible by the existence of a marked-up source of general knowledge (Wikipedia), a ready-made bank of questions and…

That's not really true. The UMLS has a large graph of marked up medical domain knowledge that can be used. It's not as specific as one might want for developing an AI autodoc, but it's quite a bit better than what is available in most fields. It's actually quite similar to what one can derive from Wikipedia.

Unfortunately UMLS and Wikipedia are not good enough for drug information. Structuring that data requires a fine balance of tooling (with some NLP) and a good team of biocurators (doctors, pharmacists, pharmacologists and domain experts).

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#35
post #21

To me, the main mistake was the series of commercials giving the strong impression that IBM already had this incredible Artificial General Intelligence that was indistinguishable from a highly intelligent human and was solving a myriad of difficult practical problems better than any expert. I suspect that most who were well-versed in AI felt the ads were disingenuous from the start. I know I did. I think the marketin…

In my opinion you don't even need to be an expert.

- if you're a generally competent, learned person

- and the new product feels like a giant leap from anything that exists already

- it's likely not all it claims to be.

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#36
A bunch of the projects described, and the (technical) difficulties encountered, make me wonder if GPT-2-style systems would have better odds. Is anyone looking into applying that to medical/scientific text NLP problems?

I mean, GPT-2 still often produces nonsense more similar to dream imagery than useful reasoning, but I gather most medical residency students are half-asleep most of the time anyway, so... :)

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#39

What actually is so hard about AI in health care? Why not just take a set of diagnostic indicators for inputs, map to conditions/treatments as outputs and train a neural net?

In addition to what other commenters have written, you also have the problem that your inputs aren't clean or straightforward. People don't always answer fully truthfully, and sometimes give extraneous information that's not germane to their particular complaint. So, even if you get past the regulatory hurdles of obtaining and using data, and you have enough data to train your neural network, and you've handled the huge class imbalance issue with rare diseases, you still have to deal with the fact that the inputs to your model are subject to all kinds of bias and confounding that's associated with human-generated data.

To make this concrete: I used to do a lot of HIV testing and counseling. Whenever I'd ask someone "how often do you use condoms?" they'd 100% of the time say "every time!" When I'd then switch to asking "when was the last time you didn't use a condom?" they'd often reply along the lines of "last week."

This kind of issue happens not just with awkward questions, but also with more "objective" data like labs and medications.

- Was the antibiotic script written for a patient necessary for their condition, or was the physician tired and couldn't fend off a particularly assertive patient who was convinced antibiotics would solve their viral infection?

- Are labs randomly ordered, or ordered in a targeted fashion based on the "hunch" of a physician? If the latter, then the presence of lab result would itself be correlated with having some disease, and could thus throw off your entire model.

- How does the patient's insurance status influence the tests they have ordered? At one clinic I'm aware of, they typically order HIV/GC/Chlam screenings as a bundle, but if the patient has a PPO insurance they are also more likely to throw in a syphilis screening.

- How does patient preference factor into what gets diagnosed, ordered, and treated? You might have two early stage, equal risk breast cancer patients, one whom opts for a double mastectomy because she saw what happened to a coworker who had breast cancer and doesn't want to risk recurrences, whereas the other opts for a lumpectomy because she thinks her risks are low enough to be more conservative in treatment.

These issues are all solvable, but for AI to have a useful impact in healthcare, there's a lot more work than just throwing a bunch of data into a deep learning model.

Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care

#40

What actually is so hard about AI in health care? Why not just take a set of diagnostic indicators for inputs, map to conditions/treatments as outputs and train a neural net?

The problem is that the numerous easy cases do not result in a useful network ... any 1st-year intern will get the easy results already. The hard cases, which would be useful to a doctor, occur very rarely. My father's unusual reaction to a post-bypass drug regimen was something like the 3rd time that happened in Canada. How do you "train" that into a neural network?

Sounds like anomaly detection would be quite useful for monitoring the expected reactions and comparing with actual outcomes. It may not be the answer to "what is the right drug?" but it may be enough to say "what he got ain't right for him"
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