Earlier quoted context omitted.
They're still solid in the supercomputer space, no? BlueGene, and Summit and Sierra more recently are IBM projects. Admittedly though given their pretty large size I can't name much else.
> Admittedly though given their pretty large size I can't name much else. Exactly. Even if 20,000 people worked on those supercomputers, mainframes and Watson, what do the other 350,000 employees work on? Consulting, and it's been that way since Gerstner.
IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
31–40 of 127 posts
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#32I worked on this project and there were a lot of issues. Two of the biggest were: * Whatever the quality of the technology (which I personally never saw as that compelling) was wrapped up in terribly written research code, making it practically impossible to setup and use. * The Jeopardy demo was made possible by the existence of a marked-up source of general knowledge (Wikipedia), a ready-made bank of questions and…
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#33I think quite a few companies(and maybe even a good majority of them) will end up overpromising and underdelivering when it comes to AI products.
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#34I worked on this project and there were a lot of issues. Two of the biggest were: * Whatever the quality of the technology (which I personally never saw as that compelling) was wrapped up in terribly written research code, making it practically impossible to setup and use. * The Jeopardy demo was made possible by the existence of a marked-up source of general knowledge (Wikipedia), a ready-made bank of questions and…
That's not really true. The UMLS has a large graph of marked up medical domain knowledge that can be used. It's not as specific as one might want for developing an AI autodoc, but it's quite a bit better than what is available in most fields. It's actually quite similar to what one can derive from Wikipedia.
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#35To me, the main mistake was the series of commercials giving the strong impression that IBM already had this incredible Artificial General Intelligence that was indistinguishable from a highly intelligent human and was solving a myriad of difficult practical problems better than any expert. I suspect that most who were well-versed in AI felt the ads were disingenuous from the start. I know I did. I think the marketin…
- if you're a generally competent, learned person
- and the new product feels like a giant leap from anything that exists already
- it's likely not all it claims to be.
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#36I mean, GPT-2 still often produces nonsense more similar to dream imagery than useful reasoning, but I gather most medical residency students are half-asleep most of the time anyway, so... :)
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#37You could point it at your data and it would tell you the answer before you'd even thought of a question.
No wonder we're disappointed.
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#38I figure we’re going to be reading articles similar to this about blockchain in a couple of years.
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#39What actually is so hard about AI in health care? Why not just take a set of diagnostic indicators for inputs, map to conditions/treatments as outputs and train a neural net?
To make this concrete: I used to do a lot of HIV testing and counseling. Whenever I'd ask someone "how often do you use condoms?" they'd 100% of the time say "every time!" When I'd then switch to asking "when was the last time you didn't use a condom?" they'd often reply along the lines of "last week."
This kind of issue happens not just with awkward questions, but also with more "objective" data like labs and medications.
- Was the antibiotic script written for a patient necessary for their condition, or was the physician tired and couldn't fend off a particularly assertive patient who was convinced antibiotics would solve their viral infection?
- Are labs randomly ordered, or ordered in a targeted fashion based on the "hunch" of a physician? If the latter, then the presence of lab result would itself be correlated with having some disease, and could thus throw off your entire model.
- How does the patient's insurance status influence the tests they have ordered? At one clinic I'm aware of, they typically order HIV/GC/Chlam screenings as a bundle, but if the patient has a PPO insurance they are also more likely to throw in a syphilis screening.
- How does patient preference factor into what gets diagnosed, ordered, and treated? You might have two early stage, equal risk breast cancer patients, one whom opts for a double mastectomy because she saw what happened to a coworker who had breast cancer and doesn't want to risk recurrences, whereas the other opts for a lumpectomy because she thinks her risks are low enough to be more conservative in treatment.
These issues are all solvable, but for AI to have a useful impact in healthcare, there's a lot more work than just throwing a bunch of data into a deep learning model.
Re: IBM Watson Overpromised and Underdelivered on AI Health Care
#40What actually is so hard about AI in health care? Why not just take a set of diagnostic indicators for inputs, map to conditions/treatments as outputs and train a neural net?
The problem is that the numerous easy cases do not result in a useful network ... any 1st-year intern will get the easy results already. The hard cases, which would be useful to a doctor, occur very rarely. My father's unusual reaction to a post-bypass drug regimen was something like the 3rd time that happened in Canada. How do you "train" that into a neural network?