Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock • Hacker News Board

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#31

Post by jessriedel » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:02 PM UTC

adamjc wrote: post #2

I thought the current thinking was that building more roads means that there will be more roads to use, and therefore more cars on the road. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

Induced demand often happens, but certainly not always. It just depends on latent demand and network effects.

More importantly, the appearance of induced demand is not a general argument against building roads! People get value out of getting to places. If we build road B intending to relieve congestion on road A, but road A stays just as congested, we nevertheless have enabled people to get places with road B that they would not otherwise have been able to reach. That increases utility.

All of this applies to mass transit as well. The BART is currently at capacity during rush hour; if a parallel transit line was built, this would probably fill up with people without reducing congestion on BART, but it would still be creating value!

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#32

Post by throwanem » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:02 PM UTC

antihero wrote: post #28

throwanem wrote: post #3

Light rail solves urban congestion, too, and a city that doesn't already have a subway isn't all that likely also to be so densely involute that rights of way can't be secured for the trackage. Elevated electric trams are a thing, too, and require a much smaller ground footprint. Not that I don't get what he's saying, and I do get that existing and well proven systems aren't sexy, but I feel like either of those is g…

I think light rail is fantastic - in London we have the DLR which is fully automated (there is an assistant onboard who can override), and it's a thoroughly pleasant experience. We fondly call it the smallest rollercoaster :)

Same! You actually get to meet people and have conversations with people like a normal human being instead of a filter-bubbled Internet habitué. And it's much easier to be in the world when you don't spend all your time looking at it through panes of glass.

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#33

Post by RichardHeart » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:04 PM UTC

RodericDay wrote: post #11

I've become completely disenchanted with Elon Musk over time. I used to be a huge fan and cheerleader, and enthusiastically pointed to him as inspiration. But slowly I started to realize that I was buying a lot into carefully crafted propaganda. The way SpaceX used lawyers to keep PSLV at bay, all the while Musk gassed on about free markets and competition made me a bit mad. Then he had that quip where he said he was…

His company makes the quickest, safest family car ever made. His rocket company has greatly reduced the cost of getting into space. Now he wants to revolutionize tunneling. Maybe it's good that you separate the man from the great achievements of the engineers that actually design and build the great things.

It's not the CEO's job to be an engineer. Seems like Elon is doing his CEO job fabulously.

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#34

Post by elbigbad » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:04 PM UTC

jessriedel wrote: post #31

adamjc wrote: post #2

I thought the current thinking was that building more roads means that there will be more roads to use, and therefore more cars on the road. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Induced_demand

Induced demand often happens, but certainly not always. It just depends on latent demand and network effects. More importantly, the appearance of induced demand is not a general argument against building roads! People get value out of getting to places. If we build road B intending to relieve congestion on road A, but road A stays just as congested, we nevertheless have enabled people to get places with road B that t…

Do you happen to have any examples of where induced demand has not happened? My understanding is that it is pretty much guaranteed, especially in larger cities. I think New York's bridges and tunnels are the canonical examples of this. I say pretty much because I assume there must be cases where it didn't happen, but I am unaware of them.

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#35

Post by AYBABTME » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:05 PM UTC

RodericDay wrote: post #11

I've become completely disenchanted with Elon Musk over time. I used to be a huge fan and cheerleader, and enthusiastically pointed to him as inspiration. But slowly I started to realize that I was buying a lot into carefully crafted propaganda. The way SpaceX used lawyers to keep PSLV at bay, all the while Musk gassed on about free markets and competition made me a bit mad. Then he had that quip where he said he was…

You've managed to let cynicism overcome the actual good his companies do. We now have good electric cars, we now can launch stuff to space at a fraction of the price.

Assume that you're right and he's not that nice a person: still because of him we're now somewhere we would not be otherwise. I think what he brings to the table far outweight any thing like "doesn't like unions" or "is an opportunistic campaign donor".

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#36

Post by AYBABTME » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:08 PM UTC

metafex wrote: post #26

This is just a wild guess, but could there be more to it than just solving traffic problems? I mean, the best solution for a permanent settlement on Mars would be underground, as to shield from radiation etc. It's a funny thought, but it would make sense to aquire experience with large earth-moving operations to improve on the technology and study the feasibility.

Pretty sure he stated that being a large reason why they're doing that.

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#37

Post by vidanay » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:08 PM UTC

Robotbeat wrote: post #24

thecolorblue wrote: post #4

This is a good idea, and I like to watch Elon be ambitious, but it's probably pretty annoying to work at SpaceX right now. One day you show up to work and, where you used to park your car, there is a giant hole in the ground. It's there because the CEO of the company you work for, who is already splitting his time between two companies, wants to put some of his energy towards a third unrelated company. You are spendi…

Not at all. The reason for wanting a tunnel at SpaceX headquarters specifically is to help the employees access their parking structures without being run over crossing the street: http://www.parabolicarc.com/2016/12/30/video-3-spacex-employ... "A news report about three SpaceX employees who were hit by a car on Dec. 17 after leaving work. The incident occurred at 2:15 a.m. About three hours later, SpaceX CEO Elon Mu…

Meh. He probably could have had a pedestrian bridge approved and installed by now for the same cost as the exploratory hole.

Or even built over a weekend, then deal with the consequences and approval process after. You can get a way with a lot when it comes to personal safety.

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#38

Post by pitt1980 » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:09 PM UTC

wolfram74 wrote: post #25

asendra wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And solar panels. And electric vehicles..

Note though that solar panels are half as effective on mars given it's distance to the sun, nuclear is even more important on Mars than on Earth.

is that true? how much effectiveness are you gaining with the thinner atmosphere?

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#39

Post by monodeldiablo » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:10 PM UTC

I generally find Elon Musk to be an offputting individual, but I struggle to disagree with most of his ideas. In dense urban areas, skyrocketing property costs and the erosion of eminent domain have made mass transit expansion unsustainable in terms of time and money. Tunneling under it all has the potential to sidestep so many costs.

To do so, of course, he'll need to reduce the costs of tunnel boring by an order of magnitude. As the economist quoted in the article noted, though, the construction industry has been famously stagnant for decades. Commoditizing boring machines would bring down costs substantially. Speeding them up would also reduce costs. And if he gets costs down by a factor of two or more, he could be the preferred vendor for a truly massive market worldwide.

It might be his least crazy idea, honestly.

Re: Elon Musk is boring a tunnel to skirt gridlock

#40

Post by tgb » Thu, Feb 16, 2017, 2:15 PM UTC

elbigbad wrote: post #34

jessriedel wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Induced demand often happens, but certainly not always. It just depends on latent demand and network effects. More importantly, the appearance of induced demand is not a general argument against building roads! People get value out of getting to places. If we build road B intending to relieve congestion on road A, but road A stays just as congested, we nevertheless have enabled people to get places with road B that t…

Do you happen to have any examples of where induced demand has not happened? My understanding is that it is pretty much guaranteed, especially in larger cities. I think New York's bridges and tunnels are the canonical examples of this. I say pretty much because I assume there must be cases where it didn't happen, but I am unaware of them.

Maybe induced demand has always happened, in the sense of demand increasing when the product is more available. But it's plenty common for the amount that demand increases to be less than the amount of extra capacity available. Furthermore, is induced demand that bad? If you double the capacity and it again gets filled to the point of gridlock, well then at least twice as many people are now able to be in gridlock, which they apparently prefer to the alternatives.