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Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

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Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#291

Post by cindyllm »

kakacik wrote: post #288
taurath wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We used to debate things like the harms to society of gambling, now it’s a silent decree that it’s not only legal but the basis for our economy. The same group who used to preach family values turned out to be the biggest casino pimps and pornographers.

You know what earns a lot of money rather effortlessly? Harvesting organs. I mean its just a cash flow, anyway for sure from sinners. Look at Chinese, always ahead of the curve. Bonus points for saving lives of some wealthy folks. Everybody (who matters) wins. I have some other ideas, all one needs is to flush morals down the drain for good. Clearly some folks are there already, we need to quickly jump on that rat ra…

[dead]

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#292

Post by toxik »

Yizahi wrote: post #224
YeahThisIsMe wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But these are "prediction markets", an entirely different thing that is definitely not gambling!

But if you somehow have a 100% correct prediction you are now "insider trading" and that is not allowed because all gambling.. ahem, all betting... hmm... All predicting much be "fair" and "random" and definitely not too good.

It's very simple. You can bet and lose as much as you like, but if you bet and win, you are clearly cheating somehow.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#293

Post by jfengel »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #270
expedition32 wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With gambling you should always play for entertainment. If you play to win you've already lost.

Making paper airplanes from dollar bills, and setting their backs on fire to give them jet engines, is likely cheaper and more entertaining, so if you're gambling anyway, you've already lost, period.

Cheaper, yes. More entertaining, not for a lot of people. Many play the same way you'd play a video game, with the actual stakes giving it a bigger rush. Enough that some become addicted.

If it weren't fun it wouldn't be nearly as big a problem.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#294

Post by felooboolooomba »

csomar wrote: post #130

I made an article a day back how Polymarket is not exactly fair when it comes to market resolution ( https://omarabid.com/polymarket-bet/ ) They actually don’t decide on market outcomes, they outsource that to UMA which is as opaque as it can get. Consider the probabilities in polymarket as the prob. of the polymarket market itself outcomes rather than reality.

Yes, an recent example here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Polymarket/comments/1ubxixr/am_i_in...

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#295

Post by felooboolooomba »

Saline9515 wrote: post #183
csomar wrote: post #130

I made an article a day back how Polymarket is not exactly fair when it comes to market resolution ( https://omarabid.com/polymarket-bet/ ) They actually don’t decide on market outcomes, they outsource that to UMA which is as opaque as it can get. Consider the probabilities in polymarket as the prob. of the polymarket market itself outcomes rather than reality.

Also UMA holders who get to judge do participate in markets.

Not a stretch to call that a conflict of interests.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#296

Post by gertrunde »

Lio wrote: post #239
cj wrote: post #12

I finally gave in to my curiosity and downloaded Kalshi last week to place a few bets on the World Cup. I was blown away how easy it was. I placed a bet with real money within 5 minutes of downloading the app. They allow instant deposits with credit card, and ID verification was real time. I can’t imagine that the extreme accessibility and the typical dark patterns deployed by every popular app won’t eventually end b…

> It Ain’t What You Don’t Know That Gets You Into Trouble. It’s What You Know for Sure That Just Ain’t So. My worry is that social media surveillance could be combined with Polymarket to tailor bets to individuals. This could be very subtle. You don't really need your punters to always be wrong either. Meaning that sometimes they'd win at the expense of other punters with the illusion they can make money. You just ne…

With "AWP" (Amusement with Prize, as opposed to SWP: Skill with Prize, i.e. quiz machines), they're often set to payout 80-85% of money taken in. (SWP's are usually around 30%).

And at that level they're still pocketing hundreds of pounds per week per machine.

The most lucrative ones I've seen (admittedly ~20 years ago now) were being emptied by the operator twice a week and taking out £600-800 every time, per machine, with 3-4 machines per location.

An eye opening industry - I'm sure there are businesses out there that pretend to be one thing (pub, club, etc), but their primary profit source is gambling.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#297

Post by streetfighter64 »

boelboel wrote: post #286
streetfighter64 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People have spend decades in prison for selling weed. Now it's legalized in more and more countries. Making things people like illegal rarely works, and it's far from a "solvable problem". Don't get me wrong, gambling is very bad, but if we were to analyze it statistically I think alcohol is way worse for society at large. And we all know how making alcohol illegal went.

Legal weed has been a disaster in the US, 20 million addicted (almost daily use/daily use) versus a few million before it was banned.

Note that I'm not in favor of either weed or alcohol being as readily accessible as they are now, but there are a few things making that claim a bit dubious. The first is that obviously people are less reluctant to self-report using weed if it's legal. Secondly, the causation could be reversed, i.e. there are other factors in society contributing to both higher usage and larger general support for legalization.

In any case, my point was that simply making something illegal with the threat of "decades in prison" isn't a very good solution. Gambling, drugs, social media, etc. are all "big business", there's money to be made because there's a demand for it. How to solve that I don't know, but just prohibiting it doesn't seem like a good fix.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#298

Post by mothballed »

brookst wrote: post #284
fragmede wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

because no one's ever had their wallet/purse with their ID in it stolen?

What percent of ID verifications do you think are from stolen wallets / purses?

Once information stolen its easy to produce a digital fake ID with the info thats sold on the dark web and used everywhere. Private KYC collecting merchants rarely have the ability to authenticate the full gamet of valid types of government IDs.

Re: Polymarket has flooded social media with deceptive videos by paid creators

#300

Post by trumpdong »

taurath wrote: post #254
cucumber3732842 wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You see sins. Politicians see sin taxes, political will to spin up regulatory beurocracies, etc, etc.

We used to debate things like the harms to society of gambling, now it’s a silent decree that it’s not only legal but the basis for our economy. The same group who used to preach family values turned out to be the biggest casino pimps and pornographers.

If gambling stops, the economy collapses.
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