Live data from Hacker News

Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

mikelovesrobots.substack.com

291–300 of 498 posts

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#291
Places where I got the most out of coding agents are:

- breaking through the analysis paralysis by creating the skeleton of a feature that I then rework (UI work is a good example)

- aggressive dev tooling for productivity on early stage projects, where the CI/CD pipeline is lacking and/or tools are clumsy. (Related XKCD: https://xkcd.com/1205/)

Otherwise, I find most of my time is understanding the client requirements and making sure they don't want conflicting features – both of which are difficult to speedup with AI. Coding is actually the easy part and even if it was sped up 100x a consistent end-to-end improvement of 2x would be a big win (see Amdahl's law).

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My opinion is that AI isn’t actually the root of the problem here. It’s that we are heading towards a big recession. As in all recessions, people come up with all sorts of reasons why everything is fine until it can’t be denied anymore. This time, AI was a useful narrative to have lying around.

I think a kind of AI complacency has set in. Companies are just in chill mode right now, laying off people here and there while waiting for AI to get good enough to do actual work.

Everyone is bracing for a labor supply shock. It will move in the direction opposite what investors expect.

2030 will be 2020 all over again.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#293
AI is the biggest threat to bs middle management/ba jobs in recent history. Those people panic and try to become "AI ambassadors/advocates" to survive. They are pushing the narrative so that they have answers and "metrics" of adoption to show to upper management and survive another round of layoffs. You can see how it works at YouTube, where someone decided for no good reason to "upscale" Shorts making them all look bad. This is done automatically, without asking for the creators' permission and you cannot turn it off. The results are crap, but who ever made that decision can brag about widespread adoption of AI and survive another annual review.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a kind of AI complacency has set in. Companies are just in chill mode right now, laying off people here and there while waiting for AI to get good enough to do actual work.

Everyone is bracing for a labor supply shock. It will move in the direction opposite what investors expect. 2030 will be 2020 all over again.

Why?

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#295
post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today a friend of mine connected me with his uncle who wanted to develop an MVP for his company. He claimed he didn’t want to distract his engineers on this project, but that “it shouldn’t take you more than 5hs to do this with vibe coding”. I promptly declined, if it takes 5hs why are you reaching out to me? It would take more than 5hs just to bring me into the loop of what you want vs your own engineers. If vibe co…

[flagged]

I'm sure they justify their strong opinions on the grounds that ChatGPT, no less, had individually and specifically told each and every one of them that they're the single most leading expert in immunology in the world.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#296

These claims wouldn't matter if the topic weren't so deadly serious. Tech leaders everywhere are buying into the FOMO, convinced their competitors are getting massive gains they're missing out on. This drives them to rebrand as AI-First companies, justify layoffs with newfound productivity narratives, and lowball developer salaries under the assumption that AI has fundamentally changed the value equation. This is my…

My opinion is that AI isn’t actually the root of the problem here. It’s that we are heading towards a big recession. As in all recessions, people come up with all sorts of reasons why everything is fine until it can’t be denied anymore. This time, AI was a useful narrative to have lying around.

First thing I thought of was Benioff saying he cut thousands of customer support roles because AI can do it better then turning around and giving lackluster earnings report with revised down guidance and the stock tanks

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#297
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think that there will be neurological fatigue occurring whereby if software engineers are not actively practicing problem-solving, discernment, and translation into computer code - those skills will atrophy... I've found this to be the case with most (if not all) skills, even riding a bike. Sure, you don't forget how to ride it, but your ability to expertly articulate with the bike in a synergistic and tool-like…

Yes and this is the placid version where lazy programmers elect to lighten their cognitive load by farming out to AI. An insidious version is AGI replacing human cognition. To replace human thought is to replace a biological ability which progresses on evolutionary timescales - not a Moore's law approximate curve. The issue in your skull will quite literally be as useful as a cow's for solving problems... think about…

AGI isn't going to come from Transformer LLMs. They are Statistical Turks.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Today you will learn what diminishing returns are :) You can only utilize so many people or so much action within a business or idea. Essentially it's throwing more stupid at a problem. The reason there are so many layoffs is because of AI creating efficiency. The thing that people don't realize is it's not that one AI robot or GPU is going to replace one human at a one to one ratio. It's going to replace the amount…

The reason there were so many layoffs is because cheap money dried up. Nothing to do with AI. Interest rates are still relatively high.

It might be more correct to say that interest rates are relatively normal, historically. Post-2008 we had a long period of abnormally low interest rates.

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#299
post #2

This makes some sense. We have CEOs saying they're not hiring developers because AI makes their existing ones 10X more productive. If that productivity enhancement was real, wouldn't they be trying to hire all the developers? If you're getting 10X the productivity for the same investment, wouldn't you pour cash into that engine like crazy? Perhaps these graphs show that management is indeed so finely tuned that they'…

As the rate of profit drops, value needs to be squeezed out of somewhere and that will come from the hiring/firing and compensation of labor, hence a strong bias towards that outcome. 99% of the draw of AI is cutting labor costs, and hiring goes against that. That said, I don't believe AI productivity claims, just pointing out a factor that could theoretically contribute to your hypothetical.

At the end of the day economy is king. Nothing else matters. But economy is not something you can plan and predict (shout out to my communist friends), it is a chaotic system full of emergent elements, chance-based actors and third-order effects and so it usually takes years for trends and patterns to emerge. All I'm going to say is that unless AI keeps improving exponentially (and there's definitely an argument to be made that it's not already) there is going to be a hell to pay a few years down the road.

I use Grok, Claude and Gemini every day, these "tools" are very useful to me (in the sense of how google and wikipedia changed the game) and I watch the LLM space closely, but what I'm seeing in terms of relative improvement is far removed from all the promises of the CEOs of these companies... Like, Grok 4 was supposed to be "close to AGI" but compared to Grok 3 it's just a small incremental improvement and the same goes for others...

Re: Where's the shovelware? Why AI coding claims don't add up

#300
post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bruce Tognazzini wrote that people always claim keyboard is faster than mouse but when researchers actually measured that, it turned out mouse was faster. Bruce explained that mousing is a low-cognition activity compared to keying so subjective perceptions are skewed.

This is highly misleading: https://danluu.com/keyboard-v-mouse/

Tognazzini wrote a magazine column with all the downsides: overly funny, non-academic, etc. I think Tog meant something like selecting commands from a menu vs using a command line across a range of applications. Anyway, studies like that must be somewhere in Proceedings of CHI, I guess. (Just checked bibliography in "Tog on interface", but nothing seemed to match. Found a comparison of different types of menus, but that's different. But also relevant: I guess most people would say using pop-up menu right at the mouse cursor will be faster than a fixed one at the top of the screen, yet the experiment shows the opposite.)

Mousing implies things are visible and you merely point to them. Keyboard implies things are non-visible and you recall commands from memory. These two must have a principal difference. Many animals use tools: inanimate objects lying around that can be employed for some gain. Yet no animal makes a tool. Making a tool is different from using it because to make a tool one must foresee the need for it. And this implies a mental model of the world and the future, i.e. a very big change compared to simply using a suitable object on the spot. (The simplest "making" could be just carrying an object when there is no immediate need for it, e.g. a sufficiently long distance. Looks very simple and I myself do not know if any animals exhibit such behavior, it seems to be on the fence. It would be telling if they don't.)

I think the difference between mousing and keying is about as big as of using a tool and making a tool. Of course, if we use the same app all day long, then its keys become motor movements, but this skill remains confined to the app.

Post reply on HN