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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#291

Post by immibis »

ryandrake wrote: post #281
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

> Worst case all this triggers a recession. Recession is probably the best case scenario. If only we get through this with just a recession! The world's economic inter-dependence is one of the things that have kept World War 3 at bay for decades. Nobody's going to start a hot war with their neighbor when they rely on each other through trading. Russia shows what happens when you economically isolate a country with sa…

So what you're saying is, there still won't be a world war, but everyone else might go to war with the US.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#292

Post by pbronez »

robomartin wrote: post #269
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

> the elephants in the room: Intellectual property theft.

Yup. China has been systematically stealing the IP of anything made in their country since forever. Companies kept falling for it because the potential market looked so big. Now BYD makes cars as good as Tesla and it's all #ShockedPikachuFace

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#293

Post by projectazorian »

robomartin wrote: post #269
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

> I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best.

I've now been around long enough to remember people saying this 10-20 years ago. Seems to be plenty of manufacturing still happening.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#294

Post by aziaziazi »

pavon wrote: post #263
aziaziazi wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The smart ones will head to the hardware store instead of rushing to the paper: bidet-washing-tube will makes you free of toilet paper for life. Cost: 10-30$ Installation: 20min with basic tools on your existing toilet. Usage: tons and tons of online tutorials because 1/3 of the world already use that daily. But you can also figure it out yourself easely, it’s way easier than managing node_modules on a shared project…

Since we got a bidet we use more toilet paper for drying than we used to use for wiping. Perhaps the full-size ones work better, but the fans for add-on bidets are worthless.

Some people use 1 square of paper to check if they're clean then a normal towel to finish the job.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#295

Post by [deleted] »

perihelions wrote: post #41
thehoff wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hate to be so cynical these days....but if this is true, that would mean a lot of dockworkers/longshoreman are out of jobs or not working right? Truck drivers, and who knows what other jobs are just not doing anything at this point?

But, China itself is automating away most of those jobs. It's a stark difference between Chinese and Western—just look at the phraseology we're using, without thinking about it: "out of jobs"; in China's zeitgeist they wouldn't say they lost jobs to technology, they say they "saved 80 percent of manpower" [0]. [0] https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1304443.shtml ( "China’s first self-built fully automated dock en…

[deleted]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#296

Post by daveguy »

treis wrote: post #256
taylodl wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets don't work that way. Supply is tuned to demand. When the supply is artificially constrained while the demand remains constant, it further strains already limited supplies, leading to empty shelves and rising prices. This is a fundamental principle of market economics. It's important to understand how these dynamics operate to grasp the broader implications of reduced imports from China.

There's a lot of levers and people to squeeze along the way: Currency Manipulation to relatively increase Chinese manufacturing income Relocating manufacturing based on tariffs Retail margin US based design & engineering of products Advertising and other marketing activities Depending on the product some will be passed onto consumers. But for something like Nike's it's probably more like fewer shoe designers, Footloc…

Currency manipulation - No. Inflation concern.

Relocation of mfg - years long process won't help the shelves or the prices.

Retail margin - yeah... retail will balance price hikes to avoid hitting profits with not pricing too high to further reduce demand. This is just one of the reasons prices will go up. It will reduce the demand to less efficient and profitable levels, but won't increase the supply. Shelves will be sparsely filled with more expensive items.

US based engineering and design -- analogous to mfg. Not a near term solution.

Advertising -- it doesn't matter how much you tell people to go buy shit if they don't have money and/or the prices are too high.

Why are you still apologizing for Trump's absolutely incompetent policies?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#297

Post by dehrmann »

robomartin wrote: post #269
jillesvangurp wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Empty shelves are just one of the symptoms. The real pain will come from companies having to deal with increased taxes (that's what tariffs are) for Chinese components, decreased exports (counter tariffs, anti US sentiments), etc. and then their follow up to that would be using tools like layoffs, price increases, etc. Some of those companies might have to close doors and go bankrupt. If that happens a lot you get th…

I am very much on the fence on this one. I can tell you, without a shadow of a doubt, based on having been in manufacturing across various industries for over thirty years, that the US and Europe have been on a path to loose nearly all manufacturing capacity within ten years, maybe twenty at best. How do we compare the pain (and yes, some destruction) that we have to endure today against the devastation that is clear…

Why would the US and EU losing manufacturing be bad?

> How long can any country survive this kind of inequity?

What worries me more is that the US has been funding global military security through deficit spending funded by foreign investors (who got their dollars from US trade). We're cutting legs off that stool, so we might see more wars and a declining dollar, never mind fewer cheap imports.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#298

Post by projectazorian »

RandomBacon wrote: post #220
aziaziazi wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The smart ones will head to the hardware store instead of rushing to the paper: bidet-washing-tube will makes you free of toilet paper for life. Cost: 10-30$ Installation: 20min with basic tools on your existing toilet. Usage: tons and tons of online tutorials because 1/3 of the world already use that daily. But you can also figure it out yourself easely, it’s way easier than managing node_modules on a shared project…

As someone who has used real bidets, I've tried bidet attachments - they suck. I'm going to remain with my traditional toilet until I move into my "forever home" at which point I will install bidets.

You can get a Toto Washlet attachment for ~$300 (who knows what it costs now after tariffs) that as far as I can tell is almost exactly the same model used in Japan. Heated seat, remote control, dryer, etc.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#299

Post by sjsdaiuasgdia »

kergonath wrote: post #260
LiquidSky wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, that has only fueled this madness. Because there is a lead time for shipments, things didn't instantly go bad when the tariffs were announced, so many people mistakenly seem to believe there's no problem. A lot of people apparently need instant feedback to understand cause and effect.

Which is quite surprising, because we went through several stress tests for globalised logistics in recent years with Covid, the Red Sea situation, and the Ukraine invasion. You’d think people would remember what happened 3 years ago.

Read any of the "let's talk to a panel of people who voted for Trump and see how they feel now" articles that NYT, etc put out and you might be shocked at how short memories can be, and how little critical thinking many people are able to apply to the information available to them.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#300

Post by mezeek »

sbuttgereit wrote: post #155
trebligdivad wrote: post #21

The youtuber 'What's going on with shipping?' has a good description in; it includes pointers to loads of sites with the actual data. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2GgcIuQ4X5k

Sal Mercogliano who runs "What's Going On with Shipping?" is one of the best informed commentators in the subjects of logistics and shipping. He's also a skilled presenter... enough so that I subscribe to his channel and I've not got any real special interest in subject (but I do recognize it's economic importance). Also, in a different comment, his work at Campbell is mentioned, but I think that leaves open why he h…

this guy really blew up after that bridge went down in Baltimore
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