Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla Q1 2021 Results

tesla-cdn.thron.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

291–300 of 591 posts

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#291

Post by nine_k »

ping_pong wrote: post #246
lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Tesla has already lost marketshare in almost every market so they won't be bigger than Ford in 2 years. They will likely lose their regulatory credits some time this year because VW, Audi, Porsche and Ford have strong offerings.

If the market expands faster than your market share shrinks, your business still grows.

Examples: IBM with IBM PC, Apple with iPhone.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#292

Post by 3dee »

lumost wrote: post #224
cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Right now Tesla is outperforming competition on three points:

  * 0-100km/h times
  * Range
  * Charging network
I believe most people don't care about the 0-100 speed. And most people can live with a little less range. So this leaves the network as a selling point. I believe it depends on the country how important this is. For example in the Netherlands you can cross the whole country on one charge. So you don't need a network.

Only recently competition is shifting focus to electric cars and more and more great EVs are being released. For example the new Hyundai Ioniq 5 is a car I personally would prefer over a Tesla.

So Tesla is doing great but I think they are becoming 'just another car brand'.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#293

Post by voqv »

blamazon wrote: post #222
ErikVandeWater wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since Lidar doesn't use moving parts I imagine it should be easy to make it last longer than the life of the vehicle.

You are confusing radar and lidar I think. True solid state automotive lidar is largely still in a research state. Most 'solid state' lidar sensors actually have very tiny moving parts in the form of MEMS assemblies. Even more delicate than a macro mechanical assembly. But for radar, correct, those modules are available as a commodity for automotive lifescales. The general problem is that simple, cost effective radar…

Looks like the 2022 Wey SUV from Great Wall Motors will have a true solid state lidar from Ibeo / ZF.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#294

Post by reducesuffering »

hkmurakami wrote: post #190
reducesuffering wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the day that the Y outsells GL class cars, then I’ll eat humble pie. Do you really have doubt this day isn't coming very soon? 2023 tops. Mercedes SUV are niche luxury. Tesla will only shed away price on the Y's due to declining battery prices, improved manufacturing with gigafactories, and their mission of reducing emissions by getting everyone into EV's.

Don't count out Mercedes' ability to come up with a seemingly overly robust lineup of models that cover every conceivable variation/combination of needs for the luxury SUV consumer. I mean sometimes I think "who the hell needs a GLB AMG??" but it's one of the few SUVs of that size that seats 7 passengers and serves a need for families in certain EU and Asia markets. Any given Mercedes SUV may be niche luxury but they…

> it's one of the few SUVs of that size that seats 7 passengers

Literally the Model Y also. Not sure if this is the need you're referring to or something else. But Mercedes is far behind on EV's and not even close to Tesla. This switch is happening now, if you haven't noticed all the SUV PHEV, ID.4 launch, and Toyota BZ4x announcement. Once the majority of developed nations aren't using much gasoline, taxes will be raised and Mercedes lack of EV will be critical. I mean they are almost dead last behind Tesla, VW, BMW, Nissan, Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM, etc.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#295

Post by kaba0 »

watt wrote: post #262
legulere wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if other companies aren’t growing faster. VW tripled electric car sales in 2020 compared to 2021: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2021/01/Volkswagen-bran...

When you sold 1 car yesterday, and sell 2 today, you have doubled your sales. It's misleading to talk about growth in terms of percentage points (or doubling/tripling, etc), if it's somewhat low numbers.

Are you seriously writing it under a comment that just linearly extrapolated tesla’s production?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#296

Post by kaba0 »

_ph_ wrote: post #247
rsj_hn wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obligatory xkcd https://xkcd.com/605/

Not quite to the point, as the growth of Tesla isn't just a single data point, but the growth is pretty constant over many years.

Because it’s the initial phase of the curve? COVID is exponential until it isn’t, on what basis do you think it’s fair to extrapolate?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#297

Post by kaba0 »

aero-glide2 wrote: post #272
habeebtc wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

Lets start with two assumptions. In 10 years, majority of cars sold will be electric. Majority of cars sold will have self driving capability. Tesla is a leader in both. Much of the traditional knowledge companies have about ICE engines do not help them build a better electric car. That knowledge is worthless for the future. Stock price represents future value.

In electric cars, the battery is the only “hard” part, and that is (or maybe just was) “third-party” even for Tesla.

And level 2 is not self-driving and is just dangerous. And I don’t see how would we get to level 3, let alone higher levels.

And stock price represents.. basically hype, which is remotely may be based on some figures.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#298

Post by erikstarck »

3dee wrote: post #292
lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Right now Tesla is outperforming competition on three points: * 0-100km/h times * Range * Charging network I believe most people don't care about the 0-100 speed. And most people can live with a little less range. So this leaves the network as a selling point. I believe it depends on the country how important this is. For example in the Netherlands you can cross the whole country on one charge. So you don't need a ne…

You forgot:

* Software

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#299

Post by t0mas88 »

fy20 wrote: post #178
dawnerd wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I don't get this. You bash the Model 3 for build quality but you support BMW which is notorious for having horrible reliability. I'd pick the car with just okay paint and maybe some not-so-perfect gaps over a car that I know is going to cost me thousands in maintenance.

OP could be in Europe. German premium cars are a lot cheaper to maintain there (still more than a Toyota though), and somehow seem to have less issues than the US.

In Europe indeed, no idea why American BMWs are so much worse. There is also a huge amount of complaining online about the dealers, that could be part of the problem.

Had a similar feeling driving a rental VW Passat in the US, it felt like they make a special US version. Most notable difference was a very very lazy feeling gearbox.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#300

Post by vesinisa »

kaba0 wrote: post #295
watt wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you sold 1 car yesterday, and sell 2 today, you have doubled your sales. It's misleading to talk about growth in terms of percentage points (or doubling/tripling, etc), if it's somewhat low numbers.

Are you seriously writing it under a comment that just linearly extrapolated tesla’s production?

I am not even downvoting that comment because it seems to be such a great example of the blatant cognitive dissonance Tesla and Musk evoke in many people.
Post reply on HN