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Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

governor.wa.gov

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Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#291

Post by jandrewrogers »

jumelles wrote: post #198
jandrewrogers wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No precedent for it, and a lot of Supreme Court precedent against it. Nonetheless, as an also Seattle resident, it has dramatically changed the city through voluntary behavior of the population. This has been an incredibly destructive blow to everyone in the formerly thriving restaurant and bar industry in the city.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/us/coronavirus-quarantine... > The C.D.C. rewrote its quarantine guidelines in 2017 and they have never been tested in court. The Supreme Court has also never dealt with an infectious disease quarantine case, [Lawrence O. Gostin, a professor at Georgetown University Law School who specializes in public health law] said.

Freedom of travel, upon which quarantine rests, has been thoroughly adjudicated in diverse public safety contexts. It is unlikely that the court will deviate dramatically in this specific case from centuries of precedent regarding restrictions on travel relating to public safety. The CDC's guidelines may be new but not unprecedented.

The outliers where the courts allowed the kind of special reasoning being proposed here, which has happened on occasion, have almost universally enabled shameful chapters in American history e.g. Japanese internment. Courts are understandably reluctant to allow this kind of expedient violation of Constitutional rights.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#292

Post by briandear »

smt88 wrote: post #174
dragonwriter wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The bailout of the banks has started with 0% rates and massive QE, which at the end of the day while I think necessary to prevent a credit crisis Well, no, if you bailed out businesses and consumers directly, there also wouldn't be a credit crisis. Structurally, though, that's fiscal stimulus, which isn't the Feds job, and good luck getting much of that through Congress, and by that I mostly mean the Senate Republi…

HN's culture against partisan political statements looks particularly like sticking one's head in the sand these days. Coronavirus is not a political thing, but our (partisan) elected leaders had an enormous amount of power over how prepared we were, and their agendas shape the on-going response. It's impossible to talk accurately about the problem or solution without mentioning parties and politicians by name.

Are we going to blame politics on the Italian or other European countries’ responses too? What’s Italy’s excuse for being so unprepared? The simple fact is that partisanship is relevant: Democrats claimed travel bans were xenophobic however Taiwan issued one on Dec 31 and have very few cases. Denmark and Poland closed their borders. When Trump does it, it’s automatically “bad,” when Europe does it, it’s automatically good. That’s what we are dealing with. Trump could cure cancer and the Democrats and the media would turn it into a civil war. The US is actually doing really well with this right now, relatively speaking: look at Italy as an example. Their first case was Feb 20. The US’s first case was Jan 21. Yet Italy has a dramatically higher death rate, despite “better” healthcare.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#293

Post by sdkaufman »

boznz wrote: post #88

My Daughter was working as a temp between jobs and the work has now been stopped, she had two second interviews planned in Sydney this week now both positions have been retracted and nobody hiring or interviewing, she has about 7 weeks of cash savings and 4 months lease on a rental. Oh and no unemployment benefit or subsidies as she is New Zealander working in Australia. Young People at the lowest risk from this viru…

Case A: No drastic action, your daughter gets her job in Sydney, you catch the virus in a few weeks and die.

Case B: Drastic lock down, your daughter lives on your dime for a few months or a year before she gets a job. You live to see your grand kids grow up.

And you'd rather risk case A?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#294

Post by pbourke »

tayo42 wrote: post #82

How long does this go on for? Realistically we can't just live with the world shut down (can we?) with a vaccine far off, this can't be the new normal?

If you do it properly (flattening the curve), it takes longer than getting hit with the full-height wave.

You have to “keep your foot on the brakes” until the disease is no longer a threat. Take a look at countries where there is success - Taiwan, Mainland China outside Hubei, HK, Singapore, SK - they must keep whatever countermeasures are working for them in place to some degree or risk another wave of infections. I think the culture of wearing masks really helps, despite the public messaging to the contrary. It seems like it would be good if mask manufacturing spins up enough to totally saturate the world over the next few months, and western cultures get over themselves and start making it common to wear them in public.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#295

Post by briandear »

sb8244 wrote: post #250
abtinf wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who will provide the safety net when the entire economy is shut down? Production precedes consumption, always.

Those are the questions we need to figure out as a country or even as a world. Realistically, the govt needs to provide that safety net for its citizens. However, let's start with the decision that lives are more important than money.

Where does that safety net come from if there is no economic activity to tax?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#296

Post by briandear »

pinot wrote: post #243
hartator wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current total deaths are 6,000 with China already saying the worst is behind them. Why the US would have 4M deaths?

China nipped this before they spent much time in the exponential phase: http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#g8 US is tracking highly with Italy, but 12 days behind.

How is the US 12 days behind? Where does that number come from? The first Italian case was a month after the first US case.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#297

Post by listsfrin »

Taek wrote: post #77
reedx8 wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The relevant facts are, one, only much older people have to worry about it, and two, the cure already exists in washing yourself. This common flu is here to stay, the absolute risk to vast majority of people is extremely insignificant.

Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients. Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people assumes access to an ICU. All of New York State only has about 600 unoccupied ICU beds. If the number of infections in New York breaches 6,000, the fatality rate among young people…

I've never seen studies that say anything about "permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients". Where did you read this?

"young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%."

Any links?

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#298

Post by tathougies »

eyegor wrote: post #152
cavisne wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Such a bailout is feasible. During the financial crisis houses were physically built and purchased without enough people with the income to cover the loan. The difference here is that there is no underlying financial issue. People will still want to go to restaurants and bars after this is over, and it will end.

There may be no underlying financial issue, but percentage wise we're going down much faster. September to Oct 2008 was a 9.5% drop (steepest month drop). Past 30 days was a 20.5% drop. Tracking s&p 500.

That's because of people panic selling, and it's a wonderful opportunity to buy cheap stocks.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#299

Post by listenallyall »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #239
listenallyall wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it's not the same set, and it's not limited. Employees have different shifts, days off, vacation, callouts, etc. They all still go home after work and interact with their family. And the working conditions essentially guarantee that if one person is carrying the virus, everyone in the kitchen will get it, which is certainly not true in front-of-house. This is a government policy that essentially tells low-paid li…

You’re looking at this through a very weird lens. Low paid line cooks and kitchen staff are the ones who most need this, because they don’t have savings or a month of food stocked - where are they going to get their own food for the duration of the shutdown? It’s absolutely true that it’s still a transmission vector, but human society can’t function with zero transmission vectors.

Yes, they need to work, but they -- and front-of-house staff -- would be far better off with restaurants that are open and functioning. Perhaps not at 100%, but they could certainly allow half-capacity or "shift seating".

I'm sorry but it's simply a very bad look, when it is mandated by the government. Nearly everyone else has the luxury of remaining isolated and avoiding exposure, except for this small segment of vulnerable and low-paid workers, whose workplace has almost zero protection, to provide the most essential human necessity -- food.

Re: Washington governor announces shutdown of restaurants, bars

#300

Post by sb8244 »

briandear wrote: post #295
sb8244 wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are the questions we need to figure out as a country or even as a world. Realistically, the govt needs to provide that safety net for its citizens. However, let's start with the decision that lives are more important than money.

Where does that safety net come from if there is no economic activity to tax?

There is economic activity still going on. A complete economic collapse is different than what I'd expect to see.

A relevant question is "how much would this cost?", to which I have no clue. If we're talking billions of dollars, that's essentially a write-off amount at the federal level.

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