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Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

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Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#291

Post by ajross »

kakwa_ wrote: post #289
jppope wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here's what you're missing... Most of the major automakers: Ford, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, etc do not have viable business models in the near future. They are so far behind in sustainable transportation its only a matter of time until they lose their economies of scale and are no longer viable businesses. It's an "Iphone moment"... the other car companies have great "flip phones" right now.

Well, in truth they most likely have something like a decade or so to adjust which is both not a lot and enough for such organizations to adjust. Sure some manufacturers will go bust and collapse, but other will adapt, and new ones will be created. I'm quite puzzled by Tesla's valuation, such a valuation is betting on it becoming a huge actor in the post IC automobile industry which is not a given. I'm also skeptical…

> Iphone was a huge step forward (basically having a small computer in your pocket vs having something just doing phone calls, SMSes and snake)

The iPhone wasn't the first smartphone. In fact when released it was significantly inferior to existing Symbian and Nokia offering in terms of "objectively useful" stuff like browser behavior, modem bandwidth and third party app support. Obviously it was transformatively better, in ways that the established players didn't understand enough to emulate, but it's not correct to imagine it as a first mover.

In fact the Tesla/Apple comparison seems almost perfectly apt to me.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#292

Post by mjamesaustin »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I have been very happy with the quality of mine!

Due to software updates, my car is faster, safer, and more efficient than when I bought it 9 months ago. That's pretty wild, and something I've never seen with another car.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#293

Post by OrangeMango »

mmaurizi wrote: post #268
OrangeMango wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options The building that I live in is going to run out of physical space for electric meters long before it has issues with electrical capacity. My neighbor opted to forgo having a charger for his Model 3 and instead put one into the garage of his weekend home (he doesn't drive much during the week so he'll be ok). Given existing equ…

Isn't the solution to put smart meters that can track usage on a common meter and bill the condo owners for their share of the electrical bill?

Do you have an example of a purchasable product that works with existing electrical systems?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#294

Post by 205guy »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I recently rented 2 different Model S cars (through Turo), one 4 years old, the other 6. The 4-year old car was in great shape, and worked perfectly, but it also needed some software updates. The 6-year old car was a bit worn inside and had some technical issues, but mechanically solid on a 1500-mile road trip (including one 500-mile day with 3 charger stops).

The issues with the older car were rear door handles that didn't work (they would not present from the outside), and the central display getting glitchy. "Rebooting" the car fixed the display, and the owner said that it needed rebooting about once a week. The door-handle issue never went away, and it wasn't clear if it was software or a mechanical issue. Software is more likely because both were not working in the same way (doors could be open from the inside).

Those problems aside, we had 4 adults and one teenager in the car for hours on end, also carrying 5 suitcases and 5 small backpacks, along with bags of food, etc--the frunk is really big. That is easily 1000 lbs of payload. We drove freeways and small paved roads for miles, and the weather was cold, from 50 to 5 Fahrenheit (10 to -15 C). We didn't have any stuck windows, and other than some range impact[1], the cold was not a factor. So we were really happy with the car, the drivetrain and road handling were rock solid in all cases.

I know Teslas can have mechanical problems, and they can go into the shop for days/weeks (just like BMWs I hear), but having a reliable electric drive-train to drive my family through the winter weather was somehow reassuring.

Edited to add: people are saying Teslas only have the price of a luxury car, but they have one other critical thing: the power. In our fully loaded rental S, I had no problem getting up hills or "dealing" with traffic (heh), including huge trucks on small roads.

[1] Note that cold reduces range in 2 separate ways: it affects the battery chemistry so there is less charge available (about 10% less), and it requires some of the available energy to heat the cabin (no waste heat from an inefficient ICE). Seat heaters make you warmer with less energy than heating the air, but the model we had didn't have back-seat heaters, so we used the cabin heat (probably created by a heat pump).

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#295

Post by javagram »

vardump wrote: post #281
notJim wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This seems really optimistic about the adoption of electric cars. I suspect adoption will be drastically slower than you're imagining, and hybrids as well as gas vehicles will remain relevant for a long time still. Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. Ford was in the #2 spot and Toyota was again in the #3. Honda takes #5. I think the thesis of these automakers…

> Toyota of course has the top-selling hybrid, and introduced a plug-in hybrid version recently. I thought that was in 2012? Of course "recently" is kind of subjective. Edit: Ah, so they only introduced plug-in hybrids in the United States in 2016. Wonder what took them so long.

Fuel prices in the USA are quite low. There isn’t much demand for a plugin hybrid. People looking for “green” cred and branding may go straight to an electric car, while everyone else buys SUVs and light trucks.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#296

Post by gwbas1c »

brenden2 wrote: post #7

How do Tesla owners feel about the quality of their cars? I'm genuinely curious. This is merely an anecdote, but in my experience it seems like the overall quality of similarly priced automobiles from more traditional luxury carmakers is much higher. The only significant advantage of the Tesla is the fact that it's 100% electric. Also, this is merely a subjective personal preference, but I just don't like the style o…

I love my Model 3, but dealing with Tesla is like dealing with any other startup running on hot air. Sometimes the employees don't have good accountability, and sometimes the company runs so fast they don't realize that they dropped customers in the shuffle.

(Basically, Tesla needs better-defined internal processes and better customer feedback loops. Common problems when startups are moving so fast that their rear view mirror is a blur.)

How does that relate to quality? Overall, it's a great car. Most of my problems are software-related, and trying to get Tesla service to even acknowledge the problem requires a few rain dances and magic tweets to the divine Elon Musk god.

That being said, I've had a few other "real" quality problems with other cars. So far, nothing major with my Model 3.

For example, my Chrysler plug-in hybrid randomly stops charging on a 30-amp charger. Chrysler service just blames my equipment instead of fixing the problem. If I had a similar problem with Tesla, I'm quite confident that they would fix it without any hassle.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#297

Post by bdamm »

OrangeMango wrote: post #219
bdamm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

> Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options The building that I live in is going to run out of physical space for electric meters long before it has issues with electrical capacity. My neighbor opted to forgo having a charger for his Model 3 and instead put one into the garage of his weekend home (he doesn't drive much during the week so he'll be ok). Given existing equ…

Why not just put the meter at the charging station?

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#298

Post by bdamm »

FireBeyond wrote: post #216
bdamm wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you need to look closer. A long range model 3 can go 310 miles and charge quickly at superchargers. Condo dwellers can basically treat this car just like a gas car with fewer fillup options. A lot of people should do the math on the model 3. The math is current car payment + 90% gas payment = new car payment on a model 3. The remaining 10% is what you pay for electricity.

I love the implicit assumption that electric vehicle adoption will run rampant, but at the same time, electricity costs will remain "negligible" and charging/pricing won't adapt to the increased demand...

Higher costs for electricity would be a great problem to have because solar is already competitive at current prices. Costs would have to go up 5x at least to make even a bad EV in an expensive kW/h locale cost as much as a gasoline car. At that rate almost anybody could make money deploying solar generation and storage in a remote locale, and of course for those with the luxury of having a roof.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#299

Post by slumdev »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #269
slumdev wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only sort of. John Q. Public has no reason to buy an EV. Today's gas prices don't put the same dent in his pocket that $5/gallon* gas did. And there's good reason to believe that $5/gallon gas is probably never coming back. I am for EVs, Tesla, and anything that can keep us from making large portions of Earth unarable and uninhabitable. But most people's car-buying decisions are driven by economic realities, not envi…

Which is why the cybertruck announcement was so huge. The styling dominated the headline, but IMO the biggest news was the pricing. $40K for a full size medium duty crew cab pickup is cheaper than the equivalent gasoline truck.

Yeah, the cybertruck gives me hope, too.

If the $40K model had a longer range, I'd place a preorder.

Re: Tesla Surges Above $500, Leaving Analyst Targets in the Dust

#300

Post by ivanhoe »

hobofan wrote: post #275
buttersbrian wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this ignoring other parts of the world? Europe single handidly can drive this market. Also large portions of asia that would love affordable electric vehicles (not ness "cars") for their densely populated cities. Never mind the short range cargo vehicle market throughout the world.

Europe currently faces a bit of an chicken and egg problem with the EV market. European manufacturers don't produce meaningful EVs which results in no subsidies that would accelerate the market (or those subsidies are also available to hybrids in their lineup which won't be driven in EV mode). In turn they don't have any incentive to move forward with their EV lineup, as most people are loyal to their local manufactu…

> as most people are loyal to their local manufacturers.

This is perhaps true for a few countries making good cars. The rest of EU is more than happy to drive German and French cars (if they can afford it, of course).

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