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Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

anthropic.com

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Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#281

Post by JacobAsmuth »

johnQdeveloper wrote: post #77
neovive wrote: post #22

If OpenAI and Anthropic eventually become public companies with trillion-dollar valuations, it will be interesting to see if their company ethos remains the same. With that much purchasing power, it's very tempting to gobble up competitors and raise prices.

They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

Opus 4.8 is a significant coding quality gain over 4.5 - I'm not sure there's any third party testing which indicates otherwise.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#282

Post by ecshafer »

radlad wrote: post #217
bwhiting2356 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Amazon was founded in 1994

As I recall, Amazon also famously didn't turn a profit for ages - but they were also capable of turning one much earlier than they did. Are AI companies capable of turning a profit today if they turn some knobs?

There is a big difference between "Every customer is a loss" and "We are profitable and re-investing all of our money". Amazon continued to grow, and reinvested its revenue with solid business fundamentals.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#283

Post by potsandpans »

Robdel12 wrote: post #182
satvikpendem wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They'll just lobby to ban Chinese models as they're already doing.

> Compounding the problem, labs in China often release dual-use capable models as open-weight. Once a model is open-weight, safeguards that do exist can be removed, making the model available to any state or non-state actor to use for malicious purposes, including the cyber and CBRN misuse those safeguards were built to prevent. https://www.anthropic.com/research/2028-ai-leadership They are already starting that now.

I have to hope they won't succeed. Maybe for a short time, but eventually open weights will prevail.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#284

Post by arw0n »

panarky wrote: post #224
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

If we're doing historical comparisons, there was so much hype for AOL and Yahoo that drove valuations far beyond the economics. In time, the hypesters were proved wrong. In contrast, there was overwhelming doom and gloom for Google's IPO, in spite of their incredible growth and margin economics. In time, the doomers were proved wrong. There's so much doom and gloom about Anthropic that directly contradicts their asto…

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes. Drawing these comparisons to the Dotcom bubble is only of limited utility. I think there's good reason to believe that recursive self-improvement is a bust, and LLM models will become a commodity. The real value lies in multi-modal integration and good harnesses. The current frontier labs are theoretically in a good position to capitalize on this, but it is far from obvious that they will succeed. I think Google and some of the chinese giants are in a far better position to actually go the last mile.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#285

Post by mixedbit »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #133
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

what is going to cause the market to “sneeze”?

one possibility is that some heavily indebted AI infrastructure company will be unable to meet its dept obligations, which will cause banks that become heavily exposed to AI-infrastructure related dept to tumble

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#286

Post by m3kw9 »

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

AI seem hard to go bust from the potential, but there is a point where it always can if numbers grow just right.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#287

Post by johnQdeveloper »

JacobAsmuth wrote: post #281
johnQdeveloper wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They already do both. The real competition is coming out of China right now and I doubt the Chinese government is going to let them buy out their "fast follower" AI companies that are consistently 6-12 months behind in terms of quality. That said, I'm factoring quality as in Opus 4.5/Sonnet 4.5/GPT-5.5 as break points since I haven't really seen an improvement since that point when using AI.

Opus 4.8 is a significant coding quality gain over 4.5 - I'm not sure there's any third party testing which indicates otherwise.

My experience isn't consistent with it being significant (or really any) quality gains on actual real world usage for me or the team I'm on.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#288

Post by sigmar »

lgfrbcsgo wrote: post #268
giancarlostoro wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic unlike OpenAI has reached an operating profit of 559 million, which is really telling. They've also been migrating enterprise customers to API pricing, which is likely part of why they've become so profitable.

SpaceX is selling their capacity to Anthrophic at a reduced rate in May and June [1]. It's possible that they're only profitable because of this discount. [1] https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle...

"capacity ramping" denotes that compute is increasing, which doesn't read like a discount, it reads like prorating.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#289

Post by system2 »

guluarte wrote: post #216
cmiles8 wrote: post #25

There is a mad rush to get these IPOs out the door before the market sneezes.

OpenAI, SpaceX, and this IPO: I don’t think there’s enough liquidity for all of them. Investors may pull money out of other investments, and hopefully that doesn’t cascade into a full market crash.

I think everyone is afraid of them, and that will slow down the bust.

Re: Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

#290

Post by ai_fry_ur_brain »

EugeneG wrote: post #260
pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Well we are far more corrupt and in the last stages of late stage capitalism. 15 day waiting period for Nasdaq 100. Your 401k is now the exit liquidty for the country's 5k richest people.

I really dont see how America doesnt collapse on the weight of its own corruption. But maybe the was the plan all along....

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