At some point that’s true, but don’t they run the n-1 or 2 generation production lines for years after the next generation launches? There’s a significant capital investment there and my understanding is that the cost goes down significantly over the lifetime as they dial in the process so even though the price is lower it’s still profitable.
Unless plans have changed, the foundries making DDR4 are winding down, with the last shipments going out as we speak.
The specialty DRAM vendors (Nanya notably) will keep making DDR4 and earlier
I wonder if Apple will budge. The margins on their RAM upgrades were so ludicrous before that they're probably still RAM-profitable even without raising their prices, but do they want to give up those fat margins?
> I wonder if Apple will budge. Perhaps I don't understand something so clarification would be helpful: I was under the impression that Apple's RAM was on-die, and so baked in during chip manufacturing and not a 'stand alone' SKU that is grafted onto the die. So Apple does not go out to purchase third-party product, but rather self-makes it (via ASML) when the rest of the chip is made (CPU, GPU, I/O controller, etc )…
Sadly everything in the general direction of RAM or SSD chips is getting more expensive because a lot of production capacity is redistributed to serve AI chips and everything around.
Even lower end GPUs are getting more expensive even if they are not really useful for AI.
But they still contain chips and ram which is in high demand.
So yes, Apple will likely also have to pay higher priceses when they renew their contracts.
Unfortunately, older RAM also means an older motherboard, which also means older socket and older CPUs. It works, but it's not usually a drop in replacement.
Can't you use DDR3 in DDR5 compatible board?
No, the different generations have fundamentally incompatible interfaces, not just mechanically, but in terms of voltage and signaling.
I updated a $330 new HP laptop (it flexes like cardboard) from 8GB to 32GB in May. Cost back then: $44. Today, the same kit costs a ridiculous $180. https://tomverbeure.github.io/2025/03/12/HP-Laptop-17-RAM-Up...
Got to say, those prices were quite cheap.
I also upgraded my home server to 32GB RAM and paid something like 55€.
Now we can just wait for some bubble to pop...
China cannot buy ASML machines. All advanced semiconductor manufacturing in China is done with stockpiled ASML machines from before the ban.
As someone who knows next to nothing about this space, why can China not build their own machines? Is ASML the only company making those machines? If so, why? Is it a matter of patents, or is the knowledge required for this so specialized only they've built it up?
Designing such an advanced lithography machine is probably a Manhattan Project scale task. China is indeed trying to make progress and they will probably get there someday but for now ASML is the only company in the world that knows how to build these or anything remotely close.
If everyone went for DDR4 and DDR3, surely the cost would go up. There is no additional supply there, as they are no longer being made.
Currently trying to source a large amount of DDR4 to upgrade a 3 year old fleet of servers at a very unfortunate time. It's very difficult to source in quantity, and is going up in price more or less daily at this point. Vendor quotes are good for hours, not days when you can find it.
Have you considered dropping by in person to your nearest computer recycler/refurbisher? As a teen I worked at one, and the boxes and boxes of RAM sticks pulled from scrapped machines (usually scrapped due to bad main boards) made a strong impression. They tend to not even put the highest-spec stuff they pull into anything, as refurbished machines are mostly sold/donated in quantity (to schools and the like) and big customers want standardized SKUs with interchangeable specs for repairability more than they want performance. Workers at these places are often invited to build personal machines to take home out of these “too good” parts — and yet there’s so much that they can’t possibly use it all up that way. If someone showed up asking if they could have some DDR3, they might literally just let you dig through the box and then sell it to you by weight!
The big 3 memory manufacturers (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) are essentially all moving upmarket. They have limited capacity and want to use it for high margin HBM for GPUs and ddr5 for servers. At the same time CXMT, Winbond and Nanya are stepping in at the lower end of the market. I don't think there is a conspiracy or price fixing going on here. Demand for high profit margin memory is insatiable (at least until 2027…
Let's see if this demand truly holds.
I'm still unsure.
Currently nobody makes money with AI.
There will be a correction (if I can trust my magic crystal ball ;) )
I think the OpenAI deal to lock wafers was a wonderful coup. OpenAI is more and more losing ground against the regularity[0] of the improvements coming from Anthropic, Google and even the open weights models. By creating a chock point at the hardware level, OpenAI can prevent the competition from increasing their reach because of the lack of hardware. [0]: For me this is really an important part of working with Claud…
Is anyone else deeply perturbed by the realization that a single unprofitable corporation can basically buy out the entire world's supply of computing hardware so nobody else can have it? How did we get here? What went so wrong?
They're simply making a bet that they can put the DRAM dies to more valuable use than any of the existing alternatives, including e.g. average folks playing the latest videogames on their gaming rig. At this kind of scale, they had better be right or they are toast: they have essentially gone all-in on their bet that this whole AI thing is not going to 'pop' anytime soon.