281–290 of 321 posts
Anyone remember the subprime crisis?
The other day I was helping somebody choose some funds to invest in. The majority of "global" or "index" funds we looked into either directly or indirectly had the largest share of holdings in Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, AMD. Often these were about 50-70% of their portfolio. The returns for the past year look great but the crash is going to be devastating and widespread because so many investments link back to…
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Yes, many recommended good index funds or FAANG companies.
Keep in mind that it’s easy to win in a market that’s just going up. You could pick random stocks and you’d probably get decent returns. The last decade has been pretty spectacular for stocks but that doesn’t most of us wizards at investing.
My worst losses have left me with maybe 0.5x-0.25x of my inital investment. But my big wins have been 10x+.
Even if you leveraged hard, brokers would close out your positions before you go negative.
Anecdotally, many people at OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, etc., sincerely believe their company's own hype . They remind me of the story about the oil prospector in Warren Buffett's year-end 1985 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: > An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for o…
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Equities in the US are priced in dollars. If you think the dollar is going to lose value(because the government is led by people who have repeatedly told you this is their goal) then you expect stocks to rise commensurate with the devaluation of the dollar. I am not a bitcoiner or saying the USD is done for, but it seems clear that the dollar is weakened and will continue to weaken and this is a significant risk for…
Why would stocks raise with commensurate devaluation of the dollar? Stocks financial positions (assets / liabilities / cash flow) are most likely denominated in dollars..... If companies' financial position would be denominated in something else (gold / Yen / Euros / CNY) this comment would make more sense to me....
as the usd devalues these stocks will also skyrocket profit/revenue
HN community predictions so far are 2000s: cloud bubble 2010s: crypto bubble 2020s: AI bubble Seems modern economy works different. I missed cloud and crypto and dont wana miss AI so im investing about 20% of my income.
a lot of comments dont really understand finance; and are just repeating gut feelings they align with
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When people buy a car they sometimes get a loan from the auto manufacturer’s financial services arm. What they don’t usually get are warrants struck at a penny for 10% of the manufacturer. You sound like you know what you’re talking about. I only think I know what I’m talking about. Help me understand: What am I missing in the OpenAI / AMD deal that makes it non circular?
> You sound like you know what you’re talking about. Honestly, I'm not an expert either, but I've run a company, and I can all but guarantee that credit_guy above really does not know what he is talking about.
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Yes but this is by design. Wealthy people want bubbles, when they pop, you can gobble up all the value at all time lows. Then you hold until you don't feel like it anymore as the market goes back to growing. You see this as how private equity has bought up real estate across the USA to turn into rentals after 2008, for example.
Aren’t extremely wealthy people that wealthy due to the valuation of their stock? IIRC generally the higher the networth, the higher share is kept in stocks
Very simple example, and not the only way to do it - but people need to remember net worth being 500B is not 500B in the bank, and at some point the number doesnt matter
Anecdotally, many people at OpenAI, Nvidia, Oracle, etc., sincerely believe their company's own hype . They remind me of the story about the oil prospector in Warren Buffett's year-end 1985 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders: > An oil prospector, moving to his heavenly reward, was met by St. Peter with bad news. “You’re qualified for residence”, said St. Peter, “but, as you can see, the compound reserved for o…
Both Jensen Huang and Sam Altman seem to believe. Here's them 2 weeks ago being interviewed https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVBzsg3yCK4&t=40s Also Brockman: >And so, you really want every person to be able to have their own dedicated GPU, right? So, you're talking order of 10 billion GPUs we're going to need. This deal we're talking about, it's for millions of GPUs. Like, we're still three orders of magnitude off of…
Is actually laughable.
There is a beautiful scene from "The Wolf of Wall Street", in which Matthew McConaughey outshines Leonardo DiCaprio. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4iBdIq0aaY I think it serves as a good commentary.
Amazing actor.
Upvote because can someone explain to someone as dense as me, whether or not this is likely to make some likely AI bubble worse? Is this just how industry allocates capital?
>AI bubble worse? Is it worse than the dot-com bubble? I remember everyone and their mom who knew HTML could get hired, and there were way more companies that went IPO during the dot-com bubble, like theglobe.com. AI is a bubble, but is it worse than the dot-com bubble or the real estate bubble in 2008?