241–250 of 321 posts
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> They also seem to be triggering extreme investor FOMO. Bubble's only bad if you get out at the wrong time.
Only for you as an individual, from an economic and societal perspective a bursting bubble is never good!
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Doubt he believes that. Getting AGI (whatever that actually means) means we are still far away from reversing ageing.
(Interestingly, some of the world's dictators do seem to have an interest in the current state of the art in prolonging life. For example Xi and Putin chatted about organ replacement https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr70rvrd41ko )
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If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize, bubbles aren't completely bad.
Sure who cares if we wipe out 15% of everyone’s retirement right as long as it’s got some schadenfreude involved.
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By asking random people on the internet what to do?
Yes, many recommended good index funds or FAANG companies.
The last decade has been pretty spectacular for stocks but that doesn’t most of us wizards at investing.
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> The deal automatically turns X$ into ~2X$ in books. No it doesn't. The revenue it gets back is valued only at a fraction, because it's only worth its profit . Revenue != profit. And your "the value of which will rapidly grow" is doing all the work here. That's not guaranteed. It might collapse as well. It's not money printing at all. It's tying up cash long-term in exchange for a much smaller amount of profit short…
To be precise I wrote 'in books' which record also revenue, not just profits. Increasing cloud revenue is one of the things that drives big corps share price up, the missing bit is that this revenue comes from big corps themself. The growth investors mantra is that as long as revenue is increasing rapidly, they don't care much about today's profits, this is why so many unprofitable companies have crazy high valuation…
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It's ironic that you described how the 2008 financial crisis came to be to illustrate how “normal” this circularity is.
Loans have happened long before 2008 and have continued ever since. This process is described in the Bible for example!
Perhaps it has some psalms discussing merits of MMT, or parables on Quantitative Easing.
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You can fake profits. Company A hands $1m to company B to buy equity in it. Company B hands the $1m to A to run ads on A. Under GAAP (normal accounting) A has a profit. In reality are they profiting? Who knows - it depends how A does as a business.
Damn. Didn't think of that. Seems I have a very naive definition of 'profit'. It's crazy how all these small subtleties in definitions of various terms can create something so abominable in the aggregate. Makes one want to reach for a tinfoil hat. Not sure I can even trust the company which makes the tinfoil at this point.
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It's worth noting Elisson is 2 years older than Trump. What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? Worst case, he got to be #1 for a bit for a few dozen billion, best case he's hoping AGI will extend his life before he croaks.
I miss the era when people like Dale Carnegie would sponsor some public buildings, instead of ruining the internet and the natural environment.
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Yes but this is by design. Wealthy people want bubbles, when they pop, you can gobble up all the value at all time lows. Then you hold until you don't feel like it anymore as the market goes back to growing. You see this as how private equity has bought up real estate across the USA to turn into rentals after 2008, for example.
Aren’t extremely wealthy people that wealthy due to the valuation of their stock? IIRC generally the higher the networth, the higher share is kept in stocks