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OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

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Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#282

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Counterexample- Facebook made Threads which has similar # users as Twitter now.

…. Does anyone actually use Threads? I’ve never once seen a threads link and I understood the user count was just because every facebook or IG or whatever user automatically got a generated account?

My girlfriend loves it. She’s an immigrant from Kazakhstan and apparently the Kazakh community on Threads is very active. Reminds her of home.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#283

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Just holding Nasdaq 100 ETFs is enough? People get impressed by "doubled my money" but forget that the most important question is - how much time did it take? Even a super safe asset with 3% returns will double your money... in 24 years.

7%+ per year?

https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/performance.html

Nasdaq 100 -> 4.5x your money in 10y

S&P 500 -> 2.5x your money in 10y

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#284

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Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…

The real revenue opportunity for OpenAI is advertising. More than 25% of Americans use ChatGPT instead of Google, and OpenAI has already announced partnership with Shopify to directly list products. But for now they are focused on market share. Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there. Google has two other impediments to doing what ChatGPT does. Googles entire busi…

> Google does not really own the complete AI stack, NVDA is extracting a lot of the value there.

What are you saying..... Google is literally the only player that does not buy tons of Nvidia devices because they have TPUs.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

7%+ per year?

https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/performance.html Nasdaq 100 -> 4.5x your money in 10y S&P 500 -> 2.5x your money in 10y

Whew! Thanks!

(No really, I thought the "just invest" thing was a meme)

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#286
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly, the $200/m plan is at a loss, they'll make a profit on PAYG tokens, not plans. Secondly, this is looking very risky: they are at the bottom of the value chain and eventually they'll be running on razor thin margins like all actors who are at the bottom of the value chain. Anything they can offer is doable by their competitors (in Google's case, they can even do it cheaper due to ow ing the vertical which Ope…

I think you are correct, but my hot take is that they will capture most of the G7 through scummy regulatory capture and bundling with Microsoft. They will use this to mostly dominate the markets and run at small profitable margins. They will then pad out revenue by bundling in advertisement and agenda based pay to play messaging. They will also do a bunch of military and government contracts, take positions in profit…

I forgot to mention lucrative non-government enterprise contracts. Just commenting so I can point to these 2 comments in 5 years.

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#287
post #279
post #183

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I would argue that Google is even better place for advertising. All they need to do is enable advertising in Gemini. There is a whole ecosystem already in place for Google advertising.

Not that someone wouldn't try, but wtf would advertisements even be in ai chats but a giant distraction and interruption? (Moreso than web or video now). They are usually a call to link to something else.

I think it will be really sneaky. You ask for information and LLM will say " does what you want and it is also cheaper with these additional features."

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#288
post #206

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Sure, but this mentality always would result in missing out on the trillion dollar companies that followed these types of growth curves. Surely you must understand that prioritizing growth over profit makes economic sense in the long run for a company like OpenAI.

>prioritizing growth over profit makes economic sense in the long run only if you have a believable plan on how to reverse that, selling 2 dollars for 1 dollar isn't a business model and no amount of praying for the future is going to change that

People have said the same about all the big tech companies and now they all print cash and are worth trillions. Will it happen? Who knows. If investing was easy to predict we'd all be very rich ..

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#289
post #258
post #157

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Ok, and? Last I heard were talking about OpenAI, not Enron.

Surely you can spot the similarities if you try hard enough? If not, maybe we can ask ChatGPT about it (below is ChatGPT's "opinion" on the similarities between Enron and OpenAI): Structural Complexity & Opacity: - Enron was infamous for its convoluted corporate structure, which helped obscure financial realities. - OpenAI has a similarly complex setup: originally founded as a nonprofit, it now operates through a for…

I like how you clearly used AI to create this comparison. Probably used ChatGPT for it

Re: OpenAI raises $8.3B at $300B valuation

#290
post #289
post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely you can spot the similarities if you try hard enough? If not, maybe we can ask ChatGPT about it (below is ChatGPT's "opinion" on the similarities between Enron and OpenAI): Structural Complexity & Opacity: - Enron was infamous for its convoluted corporate structure, which helped obscure financial realities. - OpenAI has a similarly complex setup: originally founded as a nonprofit, it now operates through a for…

I like how you clearly used AI to create this comparison. Probably used ChatGPT for it

> I like how you clearly used AI to create this comparison. Probably used ChatGPT for it

Great catch! You should consider a career as a detective! I hope this sentence from the beginning of my post didn't make it too easy on your impressive deduction skills:

"If not, maybe we can ask ChatGPT about it (below is ChatGPT's "opinion" on the similarities between Enron and OpenAI):"

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