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Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

reuters.com

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Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#281

Post by Palmik »

jlaporte wrote: post #11
zzzeek wrote: post #2

yeah, they're going to have to build a new NATO-like alliance and go it alone. Seems like it would be a good thing if the EU had some military teeth of their own to give them more leverage in all the Bad Things going on now.

Macron has been advocating for a European Army for around a decade. With the recent EU defence spending announcements the idea of a unified command structure in Europe is becoming likely. The French offer to extend their nuclear umbrella seems to me to have two purposes: 1. Deal with the immediate vulnerability opened by questions over U.S. Article 5 commitments to NATO 2. Try to get ahead of potential nuclear weapon…

I don't think (2) would really work out in practice. I have hard time believing that France would use nuclear weapons if one of the smaller states gets attacked. At the end of the day, when SHTF, you're on your own and Putin or some other aggressor might well call their bluff.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#282

Post by t_mann »

mrighele wrote: post #273
t_mann wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost nothing of relevance can be done overnight, but the first step is always the most important one. I haven't heard of that comment by vdL yet, maybe they're ready to take it, but the proof is in the pudding.

"Von der Leyen outlined the five-point plan at a critical time for the future of Europe's security. One of them is a proposal to suspend strict budget rules to allow member states to ramp up "their defence expenditures without triggering the excessive deficit procedure," Von der Leyen said.[1]" [1] https://www.dw.com/en/eus-von-der-leyen-proposes-800-billion...

Thanks. That does sound like it could be a pragmatic solution, if they go through with it.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#284

Post by glimshe »

I see we've had hours of the European echo chamber here.

I'm an American but I obviously don't represent my country. I just want to say one thing...

You Europeans don't need to worry. We will not abandon you in case Russia shows up in NATO territory because we have too long of a history together and strong commercial relations. We are a large country and you can bet we have shared values. It's in our strongest interest to ensure that you don't become part of a Russian Empire. We'd go there again as we've done multiple times in the past. Even Trump would do it. Don't take our renewed relationship with Russia as indication that we trust Putin. We just decided it's not worth pushing them against a corner. Disrespecting Russia is a mistake and leads to bad and dangerous outcomes.

But one thing we will no longer do is bail you out on every little crisis in your continent. We are not your private security. YES, let France be your nuclear shield. YES, have the UK and its ships protecting you. German tanks. Italian airplanes. Polish artillery. Make sure you are armed to the teeth and Russian dictators won't dare to invade you.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#285

Post by throw0101d »

m4rtink wrote: post #200
Epa095 wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's called nuclear latency https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_latency Japan is considered a "paranuclear" state, with complete technical prowess to develop a nuclear weapon quickly, and is sometimes called being "one screwdriver's turn" from the bomb, as it is considered to have the materials and technical capacity to make a nuclear weapon at will.

Also the solid fueled orbital launch rockets Japan has are totally not ICBMs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-V#Potential_as_an_interconti... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket)#Vehicle_descr... "The Epsilon is expected to have a shorter launch preparation time than its predecessors;[11][12][13] a function called "mobile launch control" greatly shortens the launch preparation time, and needs only eight peo…

> Also the solid fueled orbital launch rockets Japan has are totally not ICBMs:

The biggest threats to Japan are China and North Korea: you do not need ICBMs for them.

Cruise missiles have ranges of >1500km:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile_family)

And with that, a missile launched from the north of Japan (e.g., Sapporo) can hit NK:

* http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=1500km@RJCC

Southern Japan (e.g., Nagasaki) can reach Beijing and Shanghai:

* http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=1500km@RJFU

Japan doesn't currently have any, but perhaps Taiwan and/or SK would be willing to sell them some existing design:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyunmoo-3

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hsiung_Feng_IIE

Though they seem to be working on updating their own design:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_12_surface-to-ship_missil...

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#286

Post by throw0101d »

bagpuss wrote: post #128
rodgerd wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And yet South Africa and Israel aren't glass.

what happened on Bouvet Island? will we ever know?

> what happened on Bouvet Island? will we ever know?

For those unaware:

> The Vela incident was an unidentified double flash of light detected by an American Vela Hotel satellite on 22 September 1979 near the South African territory of Prince Edward Islands in the Indian Ocean, roughly midway between Africa and Antarctica. Today, most independent researchers believe that the flash was caused by a nuclear explosion[1][2][3]—an undeclared joint nuclear test carried out by South Africa and Israel.[4][5]

> The cause of the flash remains officially unknown, and some information about the event remains classified by the US government.[5] While it has been suggested that the signal could have been caused by a meteoroid hitting the satellite, the previous 41 double flashes detected by the Vela satellites were caused by nuclear weapons tests.[6][7][8]

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vela_incident

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#287

Post by throw0101d »

tombert wrote: post #66
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the collapse of the US as "The World's Policeman", will result in the most nuclear proliferation since the 50s. That alone will make the world a much, much more dangerous place.

Makes me wonder if I should get the hell out of New York. Seriously, if someone decides to nuke the US, where would they start? Almost certainly Washington DC and NYC. The US is too big to bomb in its entirety. Maybe I should move to Boise, Idaho or something. I don't think they're going to get bombed, and it seems nice.

> Maybe I should move to Boise, Idaho or something. I don't think they're going to get bombed, and it seems nice.

There's a handy map in this article:

* https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/who-would-take-th...

* https://www.newsweek.com/safest-us-states-nuclear-war-attack...

In the US, the west coast and Florida seem to be the best candidates from fallout. See also perhaps:

* https://www.mirasafety.com/blogs/news/nuclear-attack-map

* https://old.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/yc0ho2/us_cities_a...

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#288

Post by ssssvd »

GeoAtreides wrote: post #274
ssssvd wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except Putin doesn’t need to outrun America — he just needs to outrun Ukraine. There’s a finite number of Ukrainians, and an even smaller number of Ukrainian men actually willing — or physically able — to fight. 20% of the population already left, and around 1.5 million of them went to Russia. Another 15% are stuck under occupation. Ukraine’s demographics were already a disaster after the WW2 wipe-out, the Soviet col…

> they’re the only EU country with anything resembling a real army ?????? guess France is out of EU or... ?

French land army is 77k total, with maybe 30k actually combat-capable — the rest are admin, logistics, and training. Add 9k Foreign Legion, but only a fraction of that is high-intensity capable.

With rotations, France can probably field about 15k troops on an actual frontline — and after that, it’s draft time.

For comparison:

* Russian armed forces: 1.1 million. * 500k deployed in Ukraine. * ~300k on the active frontline right now.

In terms of real land warfare capacity, France is in the same weight class as Belarus or Romania — and about 20 times behind Russia.

Even if you argue technical edge (better equipment per soldier), France has zero industrial mobilization capacity and no modern large-scale combat experience.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#289

Post by tim333 »

tombert wrote: post #66
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the collapse of the US as "The World's Policeman", will result in the most nuclear proliferation since the 50s. That alone will make the world a much, much more dangerous place.

Makes me wonder if I should get the hell out of New York. Seriously, if someone decides to nuke the US, where would they start? Almost certainly Washington DC and NYC. The US is too big to bomb in its entirety. Maybe I should move to Boise, Idaho or something. I don't think they're going to get bombed, and it seems nice.

The patriot missiles have been quite effective at taking out Russian missiles. I'd wait till that stuff happens before packing up and driving west. Typing this from central London which also gets Russian threats.

I think it's unlikely the Russians would nuke somewhere like that as they only have two decent cities which would be hit in retaliation. It's more likely if they went nuclear that they'd hit troops in Ukraine. Biden issued a lot of threats to Putin if they did that but under Trump I'm not sure much US retaliation would happen.

Re: Macron to open debate on extending French nuclear protection to European allies

#290

Post by tim333 »

pqtyw wrote: post #119
tombert wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Makes me wonder if I should get the hell out of New York. Seriously, if someone decides to nuke the US, where would they start? Almost certainly Washington DC and NYC. The US is too big to bomb in its entirety. Maybe I should move to Boise, Idaho or something. I don't think they're going to get bombed, and it seems nice.

Why do you think France or Britain would nuke New York? And there isn't that much point for Russia to nuke their new ally either.

Do you think us Brits just calmly accepted our loss in the war of independence?
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