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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#281

Post by TechBro8615 »

netsharc wrote: post #256
TechBro8615 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had personally decided by April 2020 that there was sufficient information for me to believe that Covid was a lab-enhanced pathogen that was accidentally released by researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. My "source" was mainly common sense (the simplest solution is usually the right one, and guilty people doth protest too much), an understanding of probability (there is a lab studying the pathogen right n…

I'm "agnostic" whether it's lab leak or natural/from the market, but I'd like to ask how you can be certain that your gut feeling is right? I think to be certain is to be ignorant/dismiss other possibilites, and confirmation bias doesn't help in that regard, you start dismissing evidence that don't conform to your "gut feeling". I also shook my head at all the scientists that loudly proclaimed that "I'm certain it ca…

Well, I suppose I'm "agnostic," too. That's my point. I have no need to be certain one way or the other, so it's better to have "good enough" confidence, which I prefer to get from a (well-informed!) "gut feeling," rather than delegating my confidence metrics to some authority who can deliver me the latest proclamations of truth from on high.

Did it actually impact me in any way to decide whether I thought a natural or lab origin was more likely? No, probably not. But I'm an avid internet commenter and so naturally I spent time reading and posting about this stuff.

But there is one tangible benefit to the time I invest in researching controversies like this when the news story first breaks: I can save time in the future when the narrative changes, by skimming stories to see if they contain new information or merely reframe existing data. At least, that's how I justify the amount of time I spent reading about this stuff in 2020...

Fun fact, I created this pseudononymous HN account to post wrongthink about Covid origins - one of my first posts [0] about it was flagged (and unflagged about a year later when I complained about it in a similar comment to this one).

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22912353

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#282

Post by ajross »

cscurmudgeon wrote: post #271
ethbr0 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People need to start thinking of politically-impactful truths in terms of probability distributions and outcome possibility spaces, rather than absolutely. If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Any information (not leak; was leak) would have serious ramifications to the political systems of the two largest economies in the world (the US and China). What are the chances that we'll ever h…

> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible? OTOH if we knew that China was responsible, won't the future be better served by putting safeguards to prevent a worse thing happening again?

Seems like the future would be better served by putting safeguards in whether or not China was responsible. What safeguards specifically are you proposing, and why do they demand a culprit?

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#283

Post by hwillis »

sixQuarks wrote: post #47
hwillis wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very. This was put out in the state department Jan 2021, 2.5 years ago: https://2017-2021.state.gov/fact-sheet-activity-at-the-wuhan... > The U.S. government has reason to believe that several researchers inside the WIV became sick in autumn 2019, before the first identified case of the outbreak, with symptoms consistent with both COVID-19 and common seasonal illnesses.

You’re very giddy to try to brush this under the rug. The truth is that big tech and Fauci colluded to suppress the lab leak theory, there are leaked emails that prove it. YouTube and Twitter were censoring and demonetizing channels that would talk about the lab leak theory. What do you have to say about that?

> What do you have to say about that?

I think that despite the efforts of any of those people, I never stop hearing about these "bombshells" which are trivially disproven. There has been no new evidence or anything of lab leaks since early 2020 and I am just tired of hearing the same things over and over.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#284

Post by wonderwonder »

MarkMarine wrote: post #72

It's pretty incredible to see the US Government shift around these conflicting narratives, moving toward (apparently 3 letter agency by agency) this lab leak origin. Especially considering the vilification of anyone (including the president at the time) for saying things that were in this vein. I think they owe us a complete release of the data they have and an actual assessment, from the government, explained by the…

Remember when insinuating the Chinese lab leak theory meant you were a racist? Good times, really united the country during a time of crisis.

Country has become so divided that if the other side says the sky is blue, then you have to believe it's red.

Orange man bad though right...

I voted for Biden before everyone piles on.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#285

Post by burnished »

hwillis wrote: post #16

Note that this is NOT the Wuhan CDC, which is the building across the river from the wet market. They did not do any research there. This building is ~10 miles south, well outside the main city. https://geohack.toolforge.org/geohack.php?pagename=Wuhan_Ins... The fact that researchers were sick with flu-like symptoms has been openly stated by the US for a long time. This was put out in the state department Jan 2021, 2…

Neat, thanks for that last link. It could use a table of contents but it did contain more information related to the DEFUSE grant proposal which is what I have thought of as being indicative of a lab leak.

Sadly that article doesn't disprove that theory, but it does detail its weaknesses which is a good enough jumping off point for further reading.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#286

Post by Reason077 »

ZoomerCretin wrote: post #265
letmevoteplease wrote: post #258

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You won't have to wait long for confirmation. The Director of National Intelligence will be required by law to declassify information about the infected researchers on June 18th, including their names, symptoms, date of onset and role at WIV.[1] [1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/619...

>You won't have to wait long for confirmation. Confirmation that they were sick. Not confirmation of what they were sick with.

Given the location, the timing, the symptoms, the severity of the illness (it's unusual for 'flu to put healthy young adults in hospital) I think we can be pretty confident in our guess.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#287

Post by mock-possum »

wsatb wrote: post #274
geuis wrote: post #225

I don't trust this article at all . > Sources within the US government say that three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. All were members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus. > It is unclear who in the U.S. government had access to the intelligence about the sick WIV workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the pub…

All you need to do is take a quick look at one of the author's other stories[1] and your skepticism will grow further. [1] https://substack.com/@shellenberger

> Why Politicians Are Trying To Take Your Children

> California legislation would punish parents who don't affirm gender dysphoria

wow yeah that's a take

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#288

Post by tap-snap-or-nap »

karmicthreat wrote: post #260
swang wrote: post #223

Earlier quoted context omitted.

a close family member swore they got covid at CES 2020. they went to vegas and came back real sick for a couple of days. i remember in 2020 or so they were also talking about covid being in the sewage in some european city (i think in italy? and/or spain?) but my assumption was they were detecting things that were also common in other influenza strains.

There was a really bad flu that went around just before Covid. It was a bad enough flu for me that I actually had to take a Ventolin inhaler. When I finally got covid in late 2022, I would say the flu I picked up in 2020 was worse.

We can only guess, RSV also seems to have worse effect on people than covid and flu and it is not uncommon to encounter this monster. Unless we have the sample of the pathogen to analyse, it is all hearsay.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#289

Post by kneebonian »

ethbr0 wrote: post #261
geuis wrote: post #225

I don't trust this article at all . > Sources within the US government say that three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. All were members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus. > It is unclear who in the U.S. government had access to the intelligence about the sick WIV workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the pub…

People need to start thinking of politically-impactful truths in terms of probability distributions and outcome possibility spaces, rather than absolutely. If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Any information (not leak; was leak) would have serious ramifications to the political systems of the two largest economies in the world (the US and China). What are the chances that we'll ever h…

For me it isn't about the effectiveness or the blame it was that we spent 2 years where many fundamental and basic rights were suspended because of fear. For me it is not about blame it is about reminding people how fragile our rights are and that there are people all to willing and eager to take them.

Combined with the massive redistribution of wealth that happened as a direct result of government action that further widened wealth inequality.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#290

Post by baja_blast »

StanislavPetrov wrote: post #88
hotpotamus wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I'm referring to the gain of function research currently being funded by the US government. We funded the gain of function research in Wuhan through the Eco Health Alliance. I don't mean to suggest we have any power to stop other countries from engaging in this dangerous research, but certainly we can stop being a party to it (and likely would have stopped if people knew there was a strong possibility that Covid resu…

We could stop this research in it's tracks if the US government forced journals to not only refuse to publish dangerous research but also report the researchers to the authorities. Once you remove this incentive the whole demand and motivation for such reckless research collapses.
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