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First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

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Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#271

Post by cscurmudgeon »

ethbr0 wrote: post #261
geuis wrote: post #225

I don't trust this article at all . > Sources within the US government say that three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. All were members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus. > It is unclear who in the U.S. government had access to the intelligence about the sick WIV workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the pub…

People need to start thinking of politically-impactful truths in terms of probability distributions and outcome possibility spaces, rather than absolutely. If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Any information (not leak; was leak) would have serious ramifications to the political systems of the two largest economies in the world (the US and China). What are the chances that we'll ever h…

> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible?

OTOH if we knew that China was responsible, won't the future be better served by putting safeguards to prevent a worse thing happening again?

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#273

Post by taeric »

lamontcg wrote: post #259
taeric wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oddly, I assumed I had it early in the waves. Never got a positive test, as folks weren't testing back then. Finally had our first positive test this year. And whatever I had at the start was way way worse than when I had covid. Such that I can understand a lot of folks being very confused on all of this.

A common cold that turns into bronchial pneumonia can be substantially worse than SARS-CoV-2 in any given person. That doesn't make the common cold worse than SARS-CoV-2 on average.

Honestly, odds are high I did have an early covid case. Was like an asthma attack with a few nights of fever. And I had every symptom. (Though, my understanding is loss of smell came and went as symptoms? I can't remember what the final call on that was.) I never got a confirmed test, as they weren't testing then.

Mostly irrelevant, as I don't think it would change anything else. Keep your distance and try not to get people sick is still good advice. I just offer it as understanding that there is a lot to be confused about on this. Kind of like early claims that kids couldn't get it. Which is asinine on evidence of everything kids spread through the family.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#274

Post by wsatb »

geuis wrote: post #225

I don't trust this article at all . > Sources within the US government say that three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. All were members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus. > It is unclear who in the U.S. government had access to the intelligence about the sick WIV workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the pub…

All you need to do is take a quick look at one of the author's other stories[1] and your skepticism will grow further.

[1] https://substack.com/@shellenberger

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#275

Post by lamontcg »

boomboomsubban wrote: post #86

Why name the researchers that got sick? Even if one of them is the source for COVID, which really isn't clear from this, I don't think they deserve the harassment articles like this are bound to cause.

Because that's really all the information the article has.

You boil it all down and the article is just rehashing everything for the hundredth time, along with claiming "US government sources say" and dropping the three names to make it appear to be credible.

There's no details about how these government sources know this.

It also seems to be a rehashing of a New York Times story from a year or so ago which also claimed that there were three workers that were sick (without having any details) and was written by the same journalist that wrote the Iraq/Niger Yellow cake Uranium story back around 2002 that led us into the War in Iraq (and the same plot line that led to the Valerie Plame/Joseph Wilson/Dick Cheney affair).

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#276

Post by ethbr0 »

cscurmudgeon wrote: post #271
ethbr0 wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People need to start thinking of politically-impactful truths in terms of probability distributions and outcome possibility spaces, rather than absolutely. If it were a lab leak, there are probably a handful of eyewitnesses. Any information (not leak; was leak) would have serious ramifications to the political systems of the two largest economies in the world (the US and China). What are the chances that we'll ever h…

> Can you imagine how many scarce resources would have been mispent if SARS-CoV-2 had begun with worldwide knowledge that China was responsible? OTOH if we knew that China was responsible, won't the future be better served by putting safeguards to prevent a worse thing happening again?

I'm of two minds on that.

On one hand: yes, more data will inform future technical approaches and procedures.

On the other hand: no, people are technically ignorant, xenophobic, and more willing to scapegoat and project anger than reflect on their own behavior.

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#277

Post by ajross »

wsatb wrote: post #274
geuis wrote: post #225

I don't trust this article at all . > Sources within the US government say that three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. All were members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus. > It is unclear who in the U.S. government had access to the intelligence about the sick WIV workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the pub…

All you need to do is take a quick look at one of the author's other stories[1] and your skepticism will grow further. [1] https://substack.com/@shellenberger

[flagged]

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#278

Post by websap »

geuis wrote: post #225

I don't trust this article at all . > Sources within the US government say that three of the earliest people to become infected with SARS-CoV-2 were Ben Hu, Yu Ping, and Yan Zhu. All were members of the Wuhan lab suspected to have leaked the pandemic virus. > It is unclear who in the U.S. government had access to the intelligence about the sick WIV workers, how long they had it, and why it was not shared with the pub…

> Just moments ago, an NGO called U.S. Right to Know released heavily-redacted U.S. State Department cables that it obtained under the Freedom of Information Act. One July 2020 cable reads, “Initial Outbreak Could Have Been Contained in China if Beijing Had Not Covered It Up.”

From - https://substack.com/@shellenberger

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#279

Post by unyttigfjelltol »

n4r9 wrote: post #207
unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 2020 Luc Montagnier identified Covid-19 as a lab creation and predicted that, because the original strain was unnatural, later strains would be less problematic as the virus reverted to its true (less problematic) nature. In contrast, the public health conversation was about a permanent threat and how much worse can it get and generally government running around hair-on-fire. Maybe the initial quarantine recommend…

How does the virus have a "true nature", and why would it revert to it? My understanding is that that viruses are well known to become more infectious and less symptomatic as they mutate over time. The reason for this is that causing the host to quickly hole up reduces the chance of replication.

Unfortunately Luc's hypothesis was not explored because, as you will see from googling his name, he became the topic of debunking and adhomenim. And maybe some of his views on other topics were wrong, but his comments on this subject have aged well.

After an hour of googling I finally found a reference to his original hypothesis.

"According to him, the altered elements of this virus are eliminated as it spreads: “Nature does not accept any molecular tinkering, it will eliminate these unnatural changes and even if nothing is done, things will get better, but unfortunately after many deaths.”"

https://www.gilmorehealth.com/chinese-coronavirus-is-a-man-m...

Re: First people sickened by Covid-19 were scientists at WIV: US government sources

#280

Post by lamontcg »

taeric wrote: post #273
lamontcg wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A common cold that turns into bronchial pneumonia can be substantially worse than SARS-CoV-2 in any given person. That doesn't make the common cold worse than SARS-CoV-2 on average.

Honestly, odds are high I did have an early covid case. Was like an asthma attack with a few nights of fever. And I had every symptom. (Though, my understanding is loss of smell came and went as symptoms? I can't remember what the final call on that was.) I never got a confirmed test, as they weren't testing then. Mostly irrelevant, as I don't think it would change anything else. Keep your distance and try not to get…

My understanding is that the loss of smell from early COVID tends to be fairly profound. It makes food disgusting. You can burn food on the stove and not smell it even after the fire alarm goes off. And it recovers slowly. It isn't like the usual changes in taste/smell during an infection which are mostly due to the symptoms of rhinitis and clear up when they clear up.
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