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Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

coindesk.com

281–290 of 339 posts

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#281
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was an analysis recently that ETH accounts for something like 97 percent of the mining market’s value.

That does not sound right, bitcoin fraction alone should be more than 3%. Maybe GPU mining market value as bitcoin is dominated by ASICs.

If only 3% of hardware owned by miners and dedicated to mining is put towards Bitcoin, doesn't that make it super-likely that a 50% attack will happen any day? Bitcoin is still "mainstream" (within crypto) and easy to trade so a double-spend could be very lucrative?

The whole security of proof-of-work depends on "you can't beat the network", but when such a small fraction of available hardware is left in that particular network, what security does it have?

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#282
post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Checked your electricity bill lately? My rates are 11-13 cents per kWh, the same as they’ve been for years. Our power is mostly hydro, with smaller amounts coming from nuclear and wind. So no, that pithy question isn't particularly useful.

Maybe your local area isn’t representative of the general global market?

That's true of GP as well. This article is titled "... for US families".

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#283
post #281

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That does not sound right, bitcoin fraction alone should be more than 3%. Maybe GPU mining market value as bitcoin is dominated by ASICs.

If only 3% of hardware owned by miners and dedicated to mining is put towards Bitcoin, doesn't that make it super-likely that a 50% attack will happen any day? Bitcoin is still "mainstream" (within crypto) and easy to trade so a double-spend could be very lucrative? The whole security of proof-of-work depends on "you can't beat the network", but when such a small fraction of available hardware is left in that particu…

What you're missing is:

1) newer generations of bitcoin mining hardware are orders of magnitude more efficient so 3% of hardware isn't 3% of total SHA 256 computational capacity 2) 3% of hardware owned by miners is probably a GPU number. Eth is mined by GPUs, not ASICs.

Hope this helps!

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#284
post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> not a single major DeFi protocol failed during a period of enormous stress Was Terra/Luna/Anchor/Whatever not a DeFi protocol?

They were a DeFi ponzi chain which was obviously going to fail to anyone who spent time looking into it. They were printing a stablecoin backed by nothing. Far different from the blue chip DeFi apps on Ethereum that the OP listed, which process billions of dollars per day without issue. DeFi makes things more transparent, but it doesn't make them risk free. I personally profited off the collapse because of the transp…

Nearly all Defi is "ponzi chains"

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#285
post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't buy into them, nor was I the slightest bit surprised. The point is that like most theories about cryptocurrency value that originate with cryptocurrency proponents, they have been shown to be wrong when exposed to the real world. To turn it back on you - I'm not sure why you're upset that a central bank currency is being manipulated, that's entirely the point of such a system, to allow manipulation by steeri…

I had a comment written, I'll leave it at this: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10966165/Jerome-Pow... Your faith is misplaced.

When I claim that anyone has perfect knowledge… I still won’t be interested in what it says in a Daily Mail article.

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#286
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think they are claiming they can mine something like 10k bitcoin/year ( https://twitter.com/ThePrivatier/status/1547613977231798272 ) going forward but I have no idea what the COGS/cost between labor/maintenance and electricity is to mine that. If it's say 50%, then those "mining assets" will pay back in 7 years. Seems like people are going to take a large haircut on whatever they deposited and then maybe get back…

You think there’s a 50% gross margin on mining Bitcoin, after the price has fallen heavily, and we’ve entered a global energy crisis?

Difficulty adjustment takes care of reducing mining difficulty every 2 weeks based on hash power, so this should self correct

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#287
post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's wonderful. But what are all these loans used for? Arbitrage? Trading other coins around? It's turtles all the way down - there's nothing that generates value at the bottom.

We could easily put real economic assets and loans on-chain. The legal frameworks exist On-chain yields are now low enough and “real-world” interest rates high enough that there’d be demand. Delaware courts can and have enforced corporate entities governed by software. The problem is that all of this is currently illegal, because The SEC and Gary Gensler have made zero effort to build a regulatory framework for secur…

We could, and we could also build cars that run on peanut butter. We don't, because there is no point to it, because it costs too much, and because it solves problems that have already been solved.

It's not going to magically make inflation or interest rates go away. You are correct that the legal system would still be around, and will still be able to do pretty much everything that it's doing now.

It's not illegal, because it's not actually in the realm of the SEC. What you describe - the background implementation of finance isn't an investment, it's just boring clerical work. [1] If there were a better way to do it with blockchains, people would adopt it. Unfortunately, blockchains do not solve the hard problems in this space, but they do make the easy problems both hard and expensive.

[1] Yes, it's regulated, but the regulation allows for improvements. The regulation isn't the problem - getting everyone's workflows that are accustomed to how this clerical work is done is the problem! Nobody will switch to a system that's not better, and blockchains are not a better system for this [2].

[2] And if they were, no currently existing blockchain would be a better system for this. If stock clearing or whatever would somehow work better through a blockchain[3], there's no reason to do it on a blockchain that has already been pre-mined, and is being traded around by speculators. Why pay them a first-movers tax, when you can just fork and spin up your own? The hashing power of anything but BTC and maybe the ETH networks isn't sufficient to prevent attacks on something as important as this - so the existing coin ecosystems have zero value for this usecase. The organizations adopting this would have to control the hashing power, as well - and at that point, why pay third-parties for it?

[3] It wouldn't.

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#288

If I read it correctly it's more like a 1.8 bn hole. They are counting 600m of their own token, which already had only 170m or whatever of market cap, which presumably now is absolutely worthless. I don't mean worthless in a conceptual sense like all crypto, but this specific brand of made up money is based on the trust of a bankrupt lender. Nobody is buying that and counting it as 600m of asset is absurd. It's like…

It's crazy to think this is all because of Terra. Terra crashed, tanking the entire crypto sector -> 3AC defaults as they lost $$$$ on Luna -> Celsius, who already had a dubious "diversification" strategy, emerges as a big bagholder.

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> are unlikely to ever come back. This is you projecting, to some extent.

I very much doubt that people who have bought BTC at $60k, or the people cashing out of USDT while they still can, will want (or be able to) bring their money back into this crazy ecosystem. Especially so as the price of energy increases and global warming becomes ever more apparent, keeping many afraid of investing in such energy wasteful endeavors.

Investors can learn.

USDT is no longer trusted — but still swapped around due to now-legacy exchanges denominating in it.

Your other points are not true for many cryptocurrencies, and for the ones it is, there are plenty of players who don't hold your concerns — right, wrong, or indifferent, they exist.

Re: Celsius acknowledges $1.2B hole in balance sheet

#290
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Terra classic is still trading... at $0.00009 https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/terra-luna/ It had a big jump when Terra 2.0 was launched. (That coin is, inexplicably, still trading in the $2 range, by people who are looking to add a lot of excitement to their life.)

Interesting but I don’t see the relevance here? LUNA has fallen by enough that it’s a rounding error against assets. CEL (the Celsius token) has not.

I've been shorting it.

The markets don't have to make sense right away, but eventually they do. There's alot of corruption involved first. The old mantra of the market can stay irratiional longer than you can stay solvent is true only if you make a big bet. Make small bets that you believe in.

For instance, shorting LUNA's stable coin once it slightly deppegged was a smart financial decision. Since it could only 'rePeg' back to $1.00, your downside was marginal but the upside was 99.9%. Jump capital (their biggest investor) and a ton of people at the Terra Luna foundation took that trade and made a killing.

Similiarly with twitter when it was at like 50 something and the acquisition was 54.20. Minor downside, high upside if the deal doesn't go through.

DYOR and whatnot.

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