My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse” • Hacker News Board

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#281

Post by taurath » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 7:47 AM UTC

rytis wrote: post #248

hughrr wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

History shows us that greedy people end up with their heads on sticks. Even when they have armies to protect them. It doesn’t take a lot to regress to that again.

I think it's excessively greedy who end up on sticks. Moderately greedy are doing just fine...

One of the main properties of many of the communist revolutions of the 20th centuries was the mass killing or removal of property of the landed gentry in those countries - sometimes more directly violent than others. Cambodia, China, Vietnam, N Korea, etc.

I think recent history has shown that simply killing the Bourgeoisie tends to just eventually create another in the form of whoever had the power to do the other killings, and not always to better ends for the people. That form of communism has been shown to not really work. Democratic socialism though seems to work out pretty well for people.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#282

Post by exporectomy » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 7:47 AM UTC

inlikealamb wrote: post #162

School-Cotton wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> there was an attempted coup in the US No there wasn’t. A rowdy protest is not “an attempted coup”. All actual institutions behaved according to the law.

Just because they were bad at it doesn't mean they didn't try. Here's a list: * Breaking into congress * Carrying flags representing a rival (dead) government * While wearing tactical gear, some carrying blunt objects, handcuffs, mace * Stealing computers and documents * Searching for congresspeople * Killing a police officer, beating others Not to mention they were doing it while Congress was meant to be counting el…

Apply the criteria for criminal attempted crimes. You have to do more than just attempt it, you have to have a realistic possibility of succeeding.

Sticking pins in a voodoo doll isn't attempted murder, no matter how seriously you believe it will kill the person.

So how would that event in the US have succeeded in overthrowing the government? What would the next steps have been? Even if they killed everyone in the building, would the rest of the government/military/courts/etc. agree to follow orders from the new kings? Why?

By the way, they didn't kill that police officer. It turned out later that he died of natural causes. Be careful of fake embellishments of real news.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#283

Post by ben_w » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 7:54 AM UTC

sillysaurusx wrote: post #11

thewarrior wrote: post #3

I’ve become a follower of the Collapse subreddit. I initially dismissed it as a bunch of alarmist doomers but the more I looked into the more I realized that even if they end up being wrong modern civilization is a lot more fragile than most people think. Climate change, resource depletion and environmental damage all have the potential to severely destabilize the entire system we have built. I really wish we had a l…

I used to be in the “peak oil” scene — and by that I mean, I listened carefully to my friend, who was really into the peak oil scene. It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. As long as you don’t take it too seriously, it’s fine to enjoy it. But I think it’s a mistake to get too into the idea that civilizat…

The fear of the fall can cause the search for the solution to prevent the fall.

The fundamental logic of peak oil is sound, even though a bell curve is not appropriate when considering the global economic consequences: at some point any finite resource must run out, exponential growth always means the last half of a finite quantity is consumed in one doubling period. It’s not a law of nature that alternative tech will appear just at the right time, and in one sense we got lucky with alternative oils and renewables. To the extent that one can talk of “making our own luck”, I expect at least some of the people who developed all those solutions did so out of a fear of peak oil.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#284

Post by mullingitover » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 7:55 AM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #279

vecinu wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the serious issue is more around long COVID and the associated symptoms with something that could perhaps become a chronic issue down the line.

What chronic issues?

Heart damage[1]. Brain damage[2].

[1] https://academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/42/19/1866/614099...

[2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.11.21258690v...

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#285

Post by atomashpolskiy » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 7:56 AM UTC

swman wrote: post #230

cjohnson318 wrote: post #163

I love that there's a "technology will fix things" model. This assumes we'll discover some magical bullet, that we haven't thought of, that will counteract erosion of topsoil, water shortages, and climate change. Another implicit assumption is that we'll be able to move forward unilaterally with such a solution, instead of it becoming a political football until it's too late to do anything, like climate change. A lot…

I think technology will result in a great outcome for humanity as long as our greed is checked somehow. Most of the problems today are caused by our greed. I’m no MIT scholar nor as educated as most of you here, but from a anecdotal ground level I have seen it really seems some people at various positions from a office manager all the way to the highest political offices are driven by greed. Their greed usually resul…

Absolutely, most problems are caused by either of:

- stupidity

-fear

-greed

The problem is figuring out which instances of these are induced by society and civilization and which are inherent to human behavior in general. While we can try to address the former, the latter probably can't be fixed without significantly changing our definition/perception of what humans are.

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#286

Post by ben_w » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 8:05 AM UTC

exporectomy wrote: post #282

inlikealamb wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because they were bad at it doesn't mean they didn't try. Here's a list: * Breaking into congress * Carrying flags representing a rival (dead) government * While wearing tactical gear, some carrying blunt objects, handcuffs, mace * Stealing computers and documents * Searching for congresspeople * Killing a police officer, beating others Not to mention they were doing it while Congress was meant to be counting el…

Apply the criteria for criminal attempted crimes. You have to do more than just attempt it, you have to have a realistic possibility of succeeding. Sticking pins in a voodoo doll isn't attempted murder, no matter how seriously you believe it will kill the person. So how would that event in the US have succeeded in overthrowing the government? What would the next steps have been? Even if they killed everyone in the bu…

The boundary between what is factually impossible and legally impossible with regard to “attempted $crime” is not one that I, a non-lawyer, would be comfortable asserting: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impossibility_defense

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#287

Post by makomk » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 8:05 AM UTC

swader999 wrote: post #186

Doom scrolled about halfway down. I'm a bit flabbergasted by all the esoteric commentary when we have a real life example of this happening right now in South Africa.

Most people who've heard about what's happening in South Africa probably know that they've had major problems for pretty much their entire existence as a country which lead to this. (There's been an unfortunate tendency for the western left to pretend those problems don't exist for stupid political reasons, but that's not unusual.)

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#288

Post by sgt101 » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 8:07 AM UTC

zug_zug wrote: post #232

tanbog4 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not that silly to model as historically that has also happened. To use the "peak oil" example this work also influenced, the technology of fossil oil reserves was a response in part to "peak whale" (not a joke). The main source much commercial 'oil' for things like Street lamps in the 1800s was whale blubber. As whales got overfished fossilised oil reserves were developed and not only took over those markets but…

Correct me if I'm wrong, but "peak whale" and "peak oil" are naturally self-correcting in a free-market, because as the resources become scarce their prices goes up hence leading to technological incentives to find alternative sources. This would also apply to topsoil erosion. However this isn't the case with carbon emissions for example, unless we had some financial feedback loop (e.g. some carbon tax).

The catastrophic results come from overshoot; peak whale didn't have an overshoot where the folks exploiting whale oil then got into trouble because of fossil oil. Topsoil erosion will have overshoot because it's caused by people trying to get fed. When the topsoil goes those people are in trouble. For carbon the same is true - when it passes a certain point catastrophes occur - stopping the exploitation is not an option as it's toooooo late!

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#289

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 8:09 AM UTC

mrpopo wrote: post #216

iammisc wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is like how peak wheat has not been truly debunked because we now have GMO wheat and novel agricultural practices.

Your answer makes no sense. There is no peak wheat, it's not a non-renewable resource. The difference between peak oil and shale oil is the EROI which is very bad (between 1 and 2) compared to conventional (20 to 50). This would make it absolutely useless as an energy source, except we also get free Nat. gas out of it. Once the EROI on all our fossil energy sources gets below 1 we won't be able to use any, despite so…

[deleted]

Re: My take on the study from MIT that predicts “societal collapse”

#290

Post by hyperman1 » Fri, Jul 16, 2021, 8:11 AM UTC

ThomPete wrote: post #277

cjohnson318 wrote: post #163

I love that there's a "technology will fix things" model. This assumes we'll discover some magical bullet, that we haven't thought of, that will counteract erosion of topsoil, water shortages, and climate change. Another implicit assumption is that we'll be able to move forward unilaterally with such a solution, instead of it becoming a political football until it's too late to do anything, like climate change. A lot…

This civilization IS different. Not in any magical way just simply in the fact that we are the first who through our combination of wealth and knowledge-creation and with the help of technology and science have the potential of solving the problems we encounter. It's not a guarantee but it's very different than previous civilizations (just as the challenges are). In general humans and our ansestors have gradually bee…

It really isn't. History is littered with civilizations that were on top, got complacent, and were swallowed by up to that point irrelevant tiny neighbours.

They all had the wealth, the power, the tech. They didn't have the tolerance for short term pain for greater future gains anymore. So they stood there watching how they went down, slowly but surely . And talking a lot.

I would not be surprised if future historians mark the 1990’s as the peak of the US empire