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Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

timjrobinson.com

281–290 of 1001 posts

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#281

Why give free money to everyone? Clearly a rich person doesn’t need a monthly check from government... Milton Friedman long ago proposed a negative income tax to replace means-tested welfare programs. Essentially, people below a certain income threshold would receive money which scales to a maximum the closer their income approaches zero. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax I do think people radically…

> Why give free money to everyone?

Because it's simpler and avoids duplicating effort, since the means testing is rolled into the tax system, and avoids perverse consequences, since with a single payment system you don't end up with a combination that has greater than 1:1 reductions in benefits without outside income for some recipients at some income levels.

> Milton Friedman long ago proposed a negative income tax to replace means-tested welfare programs.

A negative income tax is, in terms of who gets what payment, exactly equivalent to a UBI funded by a progressive income tax.

A monthly UBI with the usual annual income tax filing and reconciliation payment/refund is a better mechanism than simply rolling the UBI into the income tax calculation and annual reconciliation, though.

> I do think people radically underestimate the unforeseen consequences of a free guaranteed income, even if it was low. I’d be willing to live as a poor person if that meant not having to work.

I think people like you overestimate it, because they ignore the well-established effects of general deprivation and voracious human wants. They may also overestimate their own tolerance for non-work, as do many people leading up to retirement.

> I’d be willing to live as a poor person if that meant not having to work.

Some people would. But many more people would also be willing to work a little bit more for a little bit more, which UBI makes easier than existing means-tested programs.

And many people who initially would reduce work for the novelty of leisure would turn around later and work to have the things they couldn't afford on the basic stipend.

> I definitely would choose not to work or work less if that money came free from government. If I got free money I wouldn’t increase spending, I would reduce work.

Unless you are the poorest of the poor, that outcome isn't actually contrary to the design or problematic.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#282
UBI is Communism Lite. Very likely ends badly, as voters seek to increase UBI to infinity. Politicians will get reelected on the basis of how much they're willing to increase UBI. Probably causes a currency crisis as well. Unfortunately the Silicon Valley crowd seems to be beholden to this flawed idea. Voters and politicians will not restrain themselves if this tool is made available.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#283

People don’t need money. People need basics like housing, food, and medical care. No UBI scheme is going to work in an economic system like the one in the U.S. that isn’t capable of providing those things. It’s not like there’s a shortage of food or shelter now and yet we still have homeless people while homes sit empty. We still have hungry people while farmers are destroying their crops. The economic system is the…

I agree.

I bet everyone reading this has at one time or another met someone who is completely incapable of managing money at even simple levels. Or thinking ahead even. Not everyone can wisely use XX a month. Or even eat with it. Then what?

The fixation on money is a little nearsighted imo. It didn't always exist. It's just a tool for determining access to good and services. What if everyone could get a healthy meal and a clean safe place to sleep at any time and a shower and some net access or whatever is deemed necessary. Would that cost less or more then UBI?

(I still think some form of UBI might be a good idea for the present, just, we should think bigger and outside of the current economic stack for the long term.)

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#284
> "Even the most hardcore anti-capitalists have to give respect to how the combination of capitalism and technology has worked to lift most of the world out poverty and provided us with the security and comfort only kings enjoyed just a few century’s ago."

I really don't have to. The best tools in software are free and open source, and if I contrast that with the tools which aren't it's really obvious that there are externalities from competition i.e. anti-cooperation. You also need an explanation for progress in communist countries besides "they would have been better off with capitalism." Maybe, but the premise is that capitalism is the reason for "comfort only kings enjoyed just a few centuries ago"...or one century ago in Russia. Research, engineering and trade are some of the real reasons for rapid growth.

A big problem with UBI is that it gives up on dealing with concentration of wealth and power into the hands of a few ceos, often for no benefit to anyone else. This is especially true of the version of UBI with a funding model like Andrew Yang proposes. I think a better path forward for "capitalism 2.0" is to require companies give much more stock equity to employees - all employees, including low wage and contractor. An extreme option would be to force every company to reform as a coop. And neither of these are mutually exclusive with UBI.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#285

A UBI paid for with a carbon tax would both save us from the worst consequences of global warming and stimulate the economy. It's hard to find a rational excuse for not doing it. Planet Money did a great episode on this idea over 7 years ago: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2013/07/12/201502003/epis... They did a followup 5 years later: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2018/07/18/630267782/epis... It seems like…

I don't see how this would really work. A carbon tax in an ideal situation is just a consumption tax. This means that it's the consumer that pays it. Rich people don't eat more food nor do they drive dozens of cars at once. If we want this carbon tax to offset our greenhouse emissions then that means it will necessarily disproportionately impact poor people. And then you want to turn around and pay that money back to…

Implementations vary, but the most efficient design is to tax carbon as far upstream as possible (e.g. oil refineries), rather than at the manufacturer or household level. So, it’s not a direct tax on consumers the way a sales tax is. In theory, this cost is then passed on down the chain in the form of higher prices for carbon intensive products and processes.

A carbon tax is overwhelmingly considered to be the most efficient solution by economists for Econ101 reasons—pricing negative externalities (correcting a market failure is more efficient than doing nothing), and enabling competition and comparative advantage (more efficient than command-and-control policies).

The idea of taxing things we want less of is known as a Pigouvian tax, by the way—and it’s considered a no-brainer even by the most conservative economists (e.g. Mankiw).

> good luck getting people to swallow a doubling of their tax bill even if you give it back.

Not so! Public opinion on climate change has shifted dramatically in the last several years. This poll from last year (and from a top Republican pollster to boot) found that people support a carbon-tax-and-dividend policy 4-to-1. 75% of GOP voters (!) under age 40 support this type of policy. Read all of the results, they are remarkable. It’s a winner in the eyes of both economists and the public. https://www.clcouncil.org/media/Luntz-Carbon-Dividends-Polli...

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#286

I am opposed to UBI. I want smart people to have more money. I want less smart people to have less money, provided they have enough to live on. A smart person might invest in books, study and self improvement. Then those industries that create these will be stimulated. That is what you want. Less smart people might spend their money on lottery tickets, junk food, booze etc. Those industries would be stimulated by UBI…

So... you're jealous that the winner of a lottery got the money without merit and therefore oppose providing subsistence income to poor people?

Intelligence and wealth are correlated, but not nearly as cleanly as you think. More importantly, taste for the various vices of life are not at all correlated with intelligence. Except maybe positively.

Desperation is the key ingredient to participation in lotteries. I realized this when an entire cohort of mathematics phd candidates at a top program bought lottery tickets. They understood the odds. They also made 20K/yr and faced the worst job market in a century. Desperation with basically zero meaningful opportunity cost. What are they going to do, invest it? They aren't even invested in fucking social security after 6 years of 80 hour weeks.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#287
post #158

As a rich person I am happy to pay for UBI as it lowers the likelihood that I will be the victim of a possibly violent crime by someone with not enough to lose. The one modification I’d make is that a violent felony conviction docks 5 years of UBI and a second conviction nixes them permanently.

reducing poverty reduces crime, i would think

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most likely implementation in the existing US federal government is a negative income tax. > I definitely would choose not to work or work less if that money came free from government. You aren't alone, so your $1200 would not go as far in that future as it does now. There would be some inflation (perhaps only localized increased costs to some industries), but I'd suspect that people working less would be a featu…

You also have to remember that supply and demand still works. If the UBI causes several of your janitors to quit because they now have better options, you can still get them back by paying them more. All it does is give more negotiating leverage to labor because they no longer starve if they walk away.

That money has to come from some where. If you're paying janitors more and they're no more productive than before, someone else is making less.

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#289

Why give free money to everyone? Clearly a rich person doesn’t need a monthly check from government... Milton Friedman long ago proposed a negative income tax to replace means-tested welfare programs. Essentially, people below a certain income threshold would receive money which scales to a maximum the closer their income approaches zero. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negative_income_tax I do think people radically…

> Why give free money to everyone? Clearly a rich person doesn’t need a monthly check from government...

The problem is that a small loophole or exception paves the way for larger exceptions, and so on, which continues until the original concept is gutted and bleeds out to the status quo

Re: Universal Basic Income is Capitalism 2.0

#290

I am opposed to UBI. I want smart people to have more money. I want less smart people to have less money, provided they have enough to live on. A smart person might invest in books, study and self improvement. Then those industries that create these will be stimulated. That is what you want. Less smart people might spend their money on lottery tickets, junk food, booze etc. Those industries would be stimulated by UBI…

"I want smart people to have more money"

Why? Shouldn't it be "people who have a more positive impact on society should have more money"?

Being smart isn't anything, it's like being tall. You got it because you were born with it.

Also, what about those who weren't born "smart"? Should society just tell them "tough luck"? Shouldn't we think about everyone and how they will all do in our future, more perfect country/world?

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