America is giving up on the pandemic? • Hacker News Board

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#281

Post by axguscbklp » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

jddj wrote: post #250

axguscbklp wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But it's not a "silly number game", it's a very serious analysis of numbers that should be done to try to determine whether certain conclusions are accurate or inaccurate. Otherwise we have only anecdotes and narratives. Edit: I can make no claim of being a statistician. My statistical arguments probably have some holes in them. But I will at least say that the numbers that I've looked at seem to me to be sufficient…

You're stopping short of spelling out your conclusion. The aims of the protests are to shine a spotlight on police brutality and qualified immunity / defund the police / ensure that killer cops are prosecuted / damage property in pursuit of anarchy / score a new TV / whatever. It's all fairly clear and makes enough sense. Your idea, however, leaves us with nothing but a knowing look and an appeal to not trust the nar…

>it's because all the "but what about white folks?" people in my social circle have been following the same playbook.

Consider that maybe it's not a playbook. Maybe people look at the data and reach conclusions different from yours.

Call to action: Let's work together to reduce police brutality. However, let's not sweep black-on-white violence under the rug while focusing narrowly on white-on-black violence.

The prevailing media narrative about racial violence in this country is, compared to available data, grossly inaccurate. The inaccuracy fuels political division and distrust of the media.

If protest organizers said something like: "Police brutality is wrong and there is reason to think that it is a worse problem for black people than for white people. At the same time, we recognize the disproportionate extent to which white people suffer from black violence. We may perhaps disagree about the extent to which the discrepancy is due to systematic racism or socioeconomic issues, but we recognize your concerns. We want to reach across the division and work together to fix all these issues." In that case, I would be totally on board. Because that would be fair, and transparent, and unifying.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#282

Post by n9 » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:46 PM UTC

Trasmatta wrote: post #245

n9 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recalibrate your assessment with the 14-21 day incubation rate factored in and with a critical eye on states like Florida, who are actively trying to minimize reported cases/deaths.

Source on Florida trying to actively minimize cases / deaths? Also, I thought the incubation period was more like 3-14 days, not 14-21?

Florida has restricted test availability until mid May, had fired a data scientist who contends they are juking their numbers and has been (along with several other states) not counting deaths of people with covid symptoms as covid if the patients were not tested while living.

21 days indicates the incubation period plus adequate time for an infected person to become ill enough to seek testing or treatment. Cutting the number at 14 is a way to minimize assessment of impact.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#283

Post by manfredo » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:47 PM UTC

caconym_ wrote: post #224

metrokoi wrote: post #90

Quoted from a letter from 1,000 health professionals on the virus and protests [0] >However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from…

Where'd they "tell us there is no risk from these protests"? The letter you linked explicitly advises us to "prepare for an increased number of infections in the days following a protest [and] provide increased access to testing and care for people in the affected communities, especially when they or their family members put themselves at risk by attending protests." They just seem to think protesting America's rampa…

On average the police kill ~80 unarmed people each year, of any race [1]. By comparison, 40 million people are unemployed as a result of the pandemic and lockdown. Certainly, the impact of someone unjustly killed is vastly larger than that of someone laid off or furloughed. But is it 500,000 times greater? These are different issues. They aren't equivalent, but they're comparable at least. Pointing out the inconsistency here isn't "sticking one's head in the sand of relativism."

1. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/polic...

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#284

Post by christiansakai » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:48 PM UTC

dang wrote: post #405

dang wrote: post #220

All: if commenting, please be up to date on the site guidelines ( https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html ) and be sure follow them. Start here: Be kind. Don't be snarky. Have curious conversation; don't cross-examine. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. Don't use a thread like this to fulminate or flame. It helps no one. It adds toxic fumes. Regardle…

This is a stub comment to collect replies in one place, so that it can be collapsed and prevent too much offtopicness at the top of the thread.

Sorry I’m not a native English speaker. What does do not cross examine here mean? I thought cross examination is good?

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#285

Post by neonate » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

achenatx wrote: post #277

stonogo wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not a double standard. That's just a standard. When one group of people is holding signs that say "stop murdering people" and the other group is holding signs that say "I need a haircut," and you're mad that "the commenters" are not treating them the same, the problem is not with the commenters.

neonate I agree with you. "I need a haircut" is a proxy for economic freedom of choice and freedom of movement, regardless the purpose. Freedom of movement only for the causes you believe in is not freedom at all. They want to be the judges that get to determine which movement is worthwhile and which movement is not worthwhile.

I don't agree that "I need a haircut" is a good argument, or even that what it is a proxy for is a good argument. It's also lousy politics because it's so easy to dismiss.

The good argument is that if we care about mitigating suffering and death, we should also be looking at the suffering and death the lockdown measures lead to. Counting one side and not the other is dishonest.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#286

Post by matwood » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

Trasmatta wrote: post #245

n9 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Recalibrate your assessment with the 14-21 day incubation rate factored in and with a critical eye on states like Florida, who are actively trying to minimize reported cases/deaths.

Source on Florida trying to actively minimize cases / deaths? Also, I thought the incubation period was more like 3-14 days, not 14-21?

There has been a lot of confusion if FL does/will list deaths from 'snowbirds'. IMO, this highlights the weakness of poor federal oversight and leadership in the pandemic.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/health/2020/04/11/floridas-cou...

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#287

Post by macspoofing » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

Nasrudith wrote: post #240

neonate wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is the double standard with which some protestors were condemned while others were lauded based solely on which causes (and which classes of people) the commenters happened to politically support. It's transparently unprincipled, to the point of being a sad joke.

That isn't a double standard but a fundamental result of judgement of costs, values, and outcomes. Somebody who shoots an armed and dangerous spree shooter is lauded as heroic while someone who shoots a kid thought they was shoplifting a one dollar drink is regarded as a psychopath with no regard for human life. Circumstances and outcomes vary, a form of 'neutrality' that ignores that fundamentally isn't a useful met…

>That isn't a double standard but a fundamental result of judgement of costs, values, and outcomes.

What do you think the definition of a 'double standard' is? You know, applying a different standard to the same behaviour (protests).

>Circumstances and outcomes vary, a form of 'neutrality' that ignores that fundamentally isn't a useful metric.

Sure. And it's still a double-standard. You just associate the phrase 'double-standard' as a negative and you don't like to apply something negative to behaviour you approve of.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#288

Post by d2v » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

axguscbklp wrote: post #183

jakkyboi wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is such an ignorant take, it's astonishing. The "general narrative" is about rampant police brutality that first and foremost disproportionately affects people of color. It's a problem that's existed since the inception of a police force in the US and that's what this movement is about. No one is trying to play a silly number game of which race kills more of what other race.

But it's not a "silly number game", it's a very serious analysis of numbers that should be done to try to determine whether certain conclusions are accurate or inaccurate. Otherwise we have only anecdotes and narratives. Edit: I can make no claim of being a statistician. My statistical arguments probably have some holes in them. But I will at least say that the numbers that I've looked at seem to me to be sufficient…

I think anecdote, personal experience, and most importantly, history, are valuable when the groups in question (law enforcement) are collecting the data in question. Would you believe a survey taken by Coca-cola about what soda is the tastiest? A lot of the initial reactions of law enforcement to incidents of police brutality start with denial, and they don't change their story until there is video evidence to contradict them. In so many incidents where there isn't publicly available evidence, they get to shape the narrative. No amount of data are meaningful if the source benefits from them supporting certain hypotheses.

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#289

Post by calidreaming » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

caconym_ wrote: post #224

metrokoi wrote: post #90

Quoted from a letter from 1,000 health professionals on the virus and protests [0] >However, as public health advocates, we do not condemn these gatherings as risky for COVID-19 transmission. We support them as vital to the national public health and to the threatened health specifically of Black people in the United States. We can show that support by facilitating safest protesting practices without detracting from…

Where'd they "tell us there is no risk from these protests"? The letter you linked explicitly advises us to "prepare for an increased number of infections in the days following a protest [and] provide increased access to testing and care for people in the affected communities, especially when they or their family members put themselves at risk by attending protests." They just seem to think protesting America's rampa…

[flagged]

Re: America is giving up on the pandemic?

#290

Post by stevoski » Sun, Jun 07, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

dang wrote: post #405

dang wrote: post #220

All: if commenting, please be up to date on the site guidelines ( https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html ) and be sure follow them. Start here: Be kind. Don't be snarky. Have curious conversation; don't cross-examine. Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. Don't use a thread like this to fulminate or flame. It helps no one. It adds toxic fumes. Regardle…

This is a stub comment to collect replies in one place, so that it can be collapsed and prevent too much offtopicness at the top of the thread.

@dang,

Maybe the text in italics ("Be kind. Don't be snarky...") should be always shown above the HN comment box? It'd be nice to get the reminder every time we are starting to write something unkind or snarky...