Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

281–290 of 488 posts

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#281

Post by ineedasername »

SEJeff wrote: post #188
ineedasername wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. They may have a lead on battery tech etc., but I wouldn't say it's a commanding lead. Given a few other EV options that come close in range, other manufacturers seem likely to keep plugging away on their own tech rather than rely on someone else with marginal & decreasing advantages. On drive train, motors, etc., established manufacturers have decades more comparable experience they can bring to bea…

They have an exclusive tech partnership with John B Goodenough (yes that is his real name), who is literally one of the inventors of lithium ion batteries. He's made a few breakthroughs[1] recently wrt max duty cycles, and only Tesla is getting that technology. It means their batteries will last longer than anyone else. It is one of the reasons the Tesla batteries have less nickel and cobalt, which is completely unri…

"Good enough" is, I think, the operative phrase. Most people don't get their cars near to 100,000 miles before buying/leasing a new one. (people average a car per 6 years [0], about 13,000 miles/year[1])

If the cars keep most of their capacity that long, it won't matter all that much to the average consumer that Tesla keeps theirs better. I'm not saying Tesla wouldn't have a place in the market, only that other manufacturers are showing the potential to eat up most of the lower end market before Tesla ever gets there.

[0]https://www.autotrader.com/car-shopping/buying-car-how-long-...

[1]https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/onh00/bar8.htm

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#282

Post by toast0 »

ssewell wrote: post #269
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My Model 3 can conveniently do cross-country trips. Not compared to gasoline, though.

Would have to mostly agree here, but it's trading time spent at one place for time spent at another. (Disclosure: I'm a Chevy Volt owner, so I have the option of both EV charging and gasoline, on rare occasion). I recently saw someone make a valid point (IMHO) that I hadn't given much thought in the past: The time spent a DC chargers is somewhat offset by lack of stops at a gas station. Assuming you stop for gas once…

Plug-in hybrid is best of both here, assuming you have a charger either at home or work, you will increase time between fueling, and you can go on a road trip without worrying about range.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#283

Post by philwelch »

leesec wrote: post #122
sschueller wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But how do you not plan for that? It's not that people are waiting for non existing cars. They are waiting for cars that have been produced and are sitting in lots and ship yards.

Remember how the last U.S. car company to make it to mass production was over 100 years ago? Scaling up cars is really, really hard. It is not software.

Most Americans didn't own cars until a few years after the Second World War. So that's maybe 70 years ago, but let's give the car companies some credit because they already scaled up to produce war materiel about a decade previous. Volkswagen, though, started from 12,000 cars per year in 1946, which is remarkable in itself.

Between 1949 and 1969, Toyota scaled from tens of thousands to millions of cars produced per year. That's 50 years ago.

Kia manufactured 26 cars in 1986 and millions of cars per year today. That's 33 years ago.

Tesla isn't doing something that hasn't been done in over a century, unless you're willing to pretend that the rest of the world doesn't exist and you're willing to round up "less than 80 years" to "more than 100 years".

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#284

Post by philwelch »

SEJeff wrote: post #189
jfoster wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Had any other car company ever scaled up as rapidly as Tesla is?

No. The last "new" American car manufacturer was GM, which was founded September 16, 1908 in Flint, MI. "ha ha ha Tesla is so bad at logistics, they suck so much! Look how much better everyone else is!" Imagine how much better I'd be at literally anything if you gave me a > 100 year head start!

Not only do countries other than the United States exist, but many of them are considerably better at car manufacturing.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#285

Post by what_ever »

azhenley wrote: post #262
ntsplnkv2 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My Model 3 can conveniently do cross-country trips. Not compared to gasoline, though.

Maybe. It forces me to take 30 minute breaks every 3-3.5 hours, which I have found far more enjoyable than what I did in my gasoline car (drive for 10 hours with only one five minute break). I quite like stopping at Tesla charging stations. They're generally in shopping areas with food and WiFi, and you can talk to other Tesla owners. It is like a new philosophy of traveling for me :)

Also, 30 minutes break is not needed if you are not driving alone.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#286

Post by philwelch »

karpodiem wrote: post #109
sjwright wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re being sarcastic, right? What is the signal you’re trying to send by admitting to choosing one of the most unreliable car brands on the market?

I live in Detroit and buy a vehicle that's produced at Jefferson and Connor, five miles from where I live. I feel good about that. The 3.6L V6 / and ZF eight speed transmission are battle tested - we're five years into the current Grand Cherokee iteration, they've mostly worked out the issues. The volume of TSBs (technical service bulletins - http://wk2jeeps.com/wk2_tsb.htm ) are way lower vs. the launch model year.…

> battle tested

Interesting choice of words, considering that the trucks used as technicals [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_(vehicle)] in actual battle tend to be Toyotas.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#287

Post by legitster »

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Mazda developed their physical controls by blindfolding testers and making sure they could use everything on touch alone.

In comparison, Tesla's approach of putting everything in a single touchscreen is a cost cutting measure being sold as trendy BS. And dangerous to boot.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#288

Post by iknowstuff »

steelframe wrote: post #233

Data point: I'm a current Tesla owner who during Q1 was in the market for replacing my remaining gas-powered car with an EV. Looking at the options available, the direction I'm seeing with respect to charging infrastructure, and the character of the company (yes, there's a touchy-feely part to me), I went with a Jaguar I-PACE instead of another Tesla. I feel that directly contributed to at least one lost potential sa…

Audio can be controlled via the wheels on the steering wheel. Suspension height is remembered and adjusted automatically in accordance with your car's location. There's no vroom vroom to worry about in an EV yet the torque is always instant. A/C is automatic -you probably want it around 72F/21C, just let the car automatically figure out the best way to get to that level.

Model 3 supports CCS - in Europe natively, in the US via an adapter. While I agree about the self-driving goal shifting they're doing, it's still the best driver assist out there and you can simply opt out of buying it.

So, I don't get it.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#289

Post by sangnoir »

dustindiamond wrote: post #264
notfromhere wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's probably going to turn out that the guys who've been building cars for a century can figure out battery technology faster than the battery guys figuring out how to scale auto manufacturing

All the German car manufacturers have in terms of engineerig talent and cultural is mostly mechanical, and brilliantly so. But, the electronics suck. Some of the most talented chemical, physical materials and electrical engineers work for Musk’s companies. You can just tell that Tesla’s were not designed with teams in silos. I don’t think car makers are currently capable of that.

Germany has a lot of electric and chemical engineering talent - you might have heard of Bosch and BASF. These companies are already involved in the car manufacturing supply chain. "Working in silos" allows engineers to specialize and get in-depth knowledge.

Re: Tesla’s First-Quarter Deliveries Plummet

#290

Post by leesec »

philwelch wrote: post #283
leesec wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember how the last U.S. car company to make it to mass production was over 100 years ago? Scaling up cars is really, really hard. It is not software.

Most Americans didn't own cars until a few years after the Second World War. So that's maybe 70 years ago, but let's give the car companies some credit because they already scaled up to produce war materiel about a decade previous. Volkswagen, though, started from 12,000 cars per year in 1946, which is remarkable in itself. Between 1949 and 1969, Toyota scaled from tens of thousands to millions of cars produced per y…

>unless you're willing to pretend that the rest of the world doesn't exist

Well that's why I said U.S. car company...

Post reply on HN