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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
271–280 of 370 posts
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#272Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just my personal experience. I'm not really interested in giving up more personal details in this forum, apologies for that.
I'm generally pretty accepting of trust me bro style arguments where we some claims presented without evidence. Especially for AI, sure some model just rm -rf ed your home directy bro sounds bad. It works fine for online discourse. This is less agreeable. You kind of just made statements without even having claims (even without requirement of evidence or details) to back them up. This is like the illusion of contribu…
this whole argument is illusory. nobody is arguing in good faith based on repeatable experiments. this debate is 100% based on how this technology makes one feel, and whether one is speculating for or against future economic returns from the technology
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#273Apple's greatest accomplishment is convincing its customers that they're all geniuses.
The largest acquisition in Apples history is only $3 billion dollars it is no surprise they didn’t fall for Sammy or give Google more than $1 billion refund.
A legitimate criticism will be Apple not fixing their memory problem in the next 2 to 4 years…
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#274Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well hold on. "They" also thought tokenmaxxing was a good idea, until they didn't. Whether companies pay will come down to the bottom line once the hype around the country club dies down a bit and for that it's still TBD on the actual product cost impact.
Yeah, tokenmaxxing was obviously stupid. Setting a limit is what happens when the adults in the room stop being stupid.
"the last decision these people made was obviously stupid, but trust me bro that this one is smart"
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#275Earlier quoted context omitted.
So then what is the deadline for AI reaching into all these new industries (or are you asserting it will never happen)? And you're right, technical people latch onto him sounding like a horse's ass on technical subjects and why shouldn't they? IMO this isn't the same as Elon's endless empty FSD promises (which I called out the whole danged time from the beginning FWIW), but I get why people assume it is, I just don't…
Sorry, you're taking this up way too many notches for me to want to continue this convo. But as I said, I have no interested in defending Zitron in general, I made no claims about him being groundbreaking, and I don't even take him too seriously. I was responding to your points around AI's usefulness and how the discussion is almost always localized around "AI as a software development tool" here on HN. For me he's j…
So saying you like his vibes and feels is cool, thanks, genuinely. FWIW I avoid AI shills and doomers myself and focus on developing my skills working with the technology. The comp for that doesn't suck either.
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#276Earlier quoted context omitted.
No Apple was not sitting there and waiting as if its some grand plan. They tried their VR device which they don't even talk about now. They were late to AI and yes if the bubble bursts they will be at a better position but it's not some grand master strategy. Even inside apple there's been a lot of talk about how badly the company handled AI. As for laughing all the way to the bank, I am sure memory manufacturers and…
A better way to frame this might be that Apple tried VR and quickly realized the market wasn't there and moved on. Compare that to Meta, who went all-in (so much so that they changed the company name) despite apparent overwhelming user apathy toward the product. The estimates I've seen say that Apple spent ~$10b on their VR program, whereas Meta is in for about $80b.
Meta had more than 10x the install base of Apple's headset. And they shipped real VR that was compatible day-1 with standards like OpenXR; Apple didn't.
If we're being actually honest with ourselves, Apple did not even try to make a VR headset. They tried to carve out a nonexistent niche with AR, and bashfully wrote it off as a Tim Cook folly like the Apple Car or Airpower.
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#277Apple looks better and better as every day passes. Other players going deeply into debt to build out massive infrastructure, VCs pumping up the model ecosystem that is now a total commodity. Apple’s just been sitting there with solid cashflow waiting for all this to implode and then have on-device models with their own chips. Apple will own the end device while the rest of the world is fighting over a pure commodity.…
Isn’t Apple potentially under a lot of pressure due to the DRAM prices as well as having to compete with AI for fab capacity? Before all the price hikes their products were already priced at the top of the market so I would assume that memory getting more expensive will impact their sales or margin quite a bit as they can’t subsidize hardware like AI companies do (they can of course eat into their own margins a bit w…
Apple already had giant margins before and could easily absorb memory price increases. The fact that they did not and instead decided to increase prices shows how confident they are that people will buy their hardware anyway.
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#278I will never understand the decision-making process that led to "Let's build an awesome VR headset that can't do gaming". I would love to replace my monitor with Apple Vision Pro for programming and productivity. I would gladly pay $1000 for that. But at $4000 it really needs to put me in a Microsoft Flight Simulator cockpit.
For me, the economics are the exact opposite. I'd pay $1000 for a good gaming VR headset, but not $4000 -- because gaming is just a hobby that isn't really worth that much to me. Gaming VR headsets have been around for well over a decade, I've "been there, done that", and it's just not something that's worth that much money to me. However, I have no problem paying $3500+ for something that creates a new category of p…
The market spoke. The overwhelming majority of people don't want to pay $4,000 for a tethered AR experience. You're the minority.
Conversely; the grandparent comment is still right, Apple could have made this a real VR headset without compromising any part of the AR experience. Apple knew that Hololens was a total failure, they saw the pushback on Google Glass, they should have known that people would feel like an idiot buying one of those headsets. Instead of trying to recoup the missed opportunity, Apple doubles down and pretends that those experiences are beneath them.
Anyone with a $300 headset can stream games to it. AVP isn't unique for that, it's was already outsold by the Index and it's eschatologically destined to be outsold by user-respecting headsets like the Steam Frame. It's downright impossible to imagine a world where Vision Pro outsells the Quest.
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#279Earlier quoted context omitted.
Just feels like the Apple press/podcast circuit just keep trying to spin ways to frame Apples fumble of the AI era as some sort of savvy move.
When your competition is currently burning billions of dollars left and right, Apple refunding Google $1 billion and giving OpenAI zero dollars seems pretty smart to me, Apple‘s largest acquisition in their entire history is only three billion dollars that’s planning.
Apple's competition is high-performance compute. Nvidia is eating their lunch to the tune of $4 trillion, and Apple just let it happen. They left billions on the table in revenue that Nvidia eats up with their own ARM servers that aren't arbitrarily restricted by the OEM.
Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts
#280Earlier quoted context omitted.
You should read this thread and the linked article for a discussion about your last sentence: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49052023
Could you leave a comment expressing your perspective?
I did actually reply to a few of the threads there. I think you'd find more perspective in reading the article and the author is also there talking about it.