Anthropic confidentially submits draft S-1 to the SEC

Post by groundzeros2015 » Mon, Jun 01, 2026, 8:47 PM UTC

EugeneG wrote: post #260

pseudosavant wrote: post #197

Up until this point, the potential for an AI bust blast radius was limited to corporate investors, but this is going to cause regular retail/401k investors to get exposure, which could have far bigger impacts on a downturn. Not to mention the insane wake-up call it is going to be for these AI stocks when 3 months after they launch they have to start making earnings calls and showing their financials. That quarter-by-…

Reminds me of this... During Apple's 1980 Initial Public Offering (IPO), Massachusetts regulators banned residents from purchasing the stock. The state's securities regulators deemed the offering "too risky" and "over-valued," enforcing a state rule that prohibited IPOs with a price exceeding 25 times earnings.

Post by mnicky » Mon, Jun 01, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

arrowleaf wrote: post #202

anukin wrote: post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I thought you could intelligently allocate 401k. I don’t think mine was etfs of nasdaq or s&p for some time now. Ever since Tesla got in

Most (all?) 401k plans limit you to a pre-picked list of ETFs and mutual funds you can invest in. Not to mention the standard advice for decades has been 'broad market index fund'.

Post by ojbyrne » Mon, Jun 01, 2026, 8:51 PM UTC

tonfa wrote: post #247

alemanek wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Until recently companies that IPOed weren’t immediately added to the major indexes so there was a longer period for price discovery. This year that changed; so you have retirement funds that typically are more conservative acting as exit liquidity for these massive IPOs. I would have less of an issue if the inclusion in major indexes was delayed 6-12months but we are looking at inclusion within like 5 days for some o…

The float will get bigger as you wait tho, since it's common for early investors to be locked for e.g. 6 months. You can argue it's better to smooth the entry as float gets unlocked rather than being front run by all the hedge funds in a single day on a massive capitalization.

Post by largbae » Mon, Jun 01, 2026, 8:52 PM UTC

stockresearcher wrote: post #191

BoggleOhYeah wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The person I was responding to was speaking to the fast-track concept, which has been a thing in CRSP indexes for a quite a while. The float requirement changes are directly due to these huge IPOs only placing small amounts of float on the market. Their goal seems to be tracking the market and making this change prevents them from excluding two notable companies from their indexes. IIRC CRSP indexes are float-weighte…

Strongly recommend reading this linked paper, written by CRSP folks: https://indexes.morningstar.com/insights/analysis/bltcd8e699... These IPOs will have minuscule impact on the indexes initially. They will have a big impact if they can maintain share price in the first ranking/reconstitution after the lockup period expires.

Post by mixedbit » Mon, Jun 01, 2026, 8:56 PM UTC

findjashua wrote: post #111

roadside_picnic wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's more insidious than that. These IPOs aren't being rushed, they were waiting for all the pieces to be in place to force 401ks and other retirement plans to buy these IPOs. The most recent change was the NASDAQ adopting the "fast change rule" which allows newly IPO'd companies to be listed in the index after only 15 days of trading. This rule was decided March 30, 2026 and only came into effect May 1, 2026. The pl…

almost all 401k plans offer funds based on s&p 500, not nasdaq/russell others. s&p has also halved their trading days requirement from 1 yr to 6 months, but that's still sufficient to be past the post-ipo lock-up period.