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Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

timesofisrael.com

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Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#271

Post by ajross »

tsimionescu wrote: post #266
ajross wrote: post #67

So, just to point it out: people don't get violent and criminal magically because they made a bet. They get violent and criminal to backstop a bet they can't cover . The story here isn't that horrible criminals are using Polymarket. It's that Polymarket bettors are overleveraged, and at the margin some of them turn to crime to avoid losing their shirts. We've all been looking around for the trigger for the market-cra…

This is said with very high authority, and nothing whatsoever to back it up. Sure, not all, nor even the majority, nor even the plurality or a large minority of gamblers resort to criminal behavior. But what evidence do you have that only over-leveraged gamblers resort to criminal behavior? Why do you think that some rich person who bet, say, $1 million they can actually afford will not still seek to recoup their inv…

> Why do you think that some rich person who bet, say, $1 million they can actually afford will not still seek to recoup their investment, especially if it only takes some bribes and threats?

Because "only bribes and threats" are crimes for which people go to jail, and most "rich people" in the west, even in our authoritarian corruption hellhole timeline, are unwilling to engage in that nonsense because the benefits don't outweigh the risks.

Do I get to demand you cite evidence here, too? Has a wealthy person ever been caught in criminal extortion trying to goose a losing position that they could cover? I don't think that's ever happened, honestly.

I mean, yeah, it's my opinion. My gut says that the "bro" markets are all overleveraged right now, there aren't any easy winning positions at the moment (even AI stock valuations seem to have topped), and now the loans are coming due. Something's going to pop, and we're all looking for proxy measurements. This is one.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#272

Post by breppp »

echoangle wrote: post #49
bitmasher9 wrote: post #32

I don’t understand how this isn’t an immediate open and shut case for the police, assuming certain facts are verified independently. At the point that you’re making death threats to strangers you should be removed from civil society.

It’s probably an open and shut case regarding being illegal but prosecution could be hard. How are you going to find the person?

The Israeli police can contact Google, Meta, etc and get the user details.

The question is whether they deem this case important enough, this is a journalist so there is a higher chance but I don't think this specific journalist carry a lot of weight locally

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#273

Post by NicuCalcea »

Hammershaft wrote: post #194
fnands wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least cryptocurrencies had some nice ideas behind them. Just sad they almost immediately got co-opted by swindlers and criminals.

Prediction markets also have very interesting ideas. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/10/pr...

The source is a company that works with Polymarket and sells Polymarket data (as well as Kalshi and other gambling platforms).

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#274

Post by globular-toast »

alpineman wrote: post #239
markus_zhang wrote: post #16

The gambling market is really bringing out the worst of us.

Day trading too, and day trading led us down this path. Everyone is a gambler now. All morals are out the window. On a side note, I find it incredible crypto trading/day trading/meme stock trading etc is not recognised as a bigger societal problem. It is 100% gambling and has the same negative externalities associated with it. But none of the tools gambling companies need to abide by (blocklists, warnings, limits, et…

It's true but it's just revealing what Wall Street et al have been up to for the past several decades. There's this perception that they're all doing Very Important Work(tm), when in fact they're just making up silly rules and playing games with each other, aka gambling.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#275

Post by NicuCalcea »

Esophagus4 wrote: post #270
mpalmer wrote: post #10

I truly don't know how you wake up, read this story with your morning coffee, and go to work at a company like this.

I would bet it’s some combination of 1) “I believe in what we’re doing as a mostly positive force in the world” 2) “Eh, the money is good” Probably the same way FB people feel, probably the same way Palantir people feel, etc etc

3) If I won't do it, someone even worse will.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#276

Post by randallsquared »

nekusar wrote: post #241
vincnetas wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But wait, there is more: Assassination market bet that someone will die by certain date https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market

Huh, I figured they were rumors. But it's fairly close to a tontine. But those are banned in the USA. But in those cases, rewards are split regularly between survivors. People who die with a tontine lose their share. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tontine I could see a movie about that, with living tontine holders sending out hitmen to remove other tontine holders, so they can get more money.

The "popular culture" section of the very wiki article you linked has several such.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#277

Post by chii »

gus_massa wrote: post #255
kasey_junk wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Prediction markets as a useful tool are predicated on insider information. The punters without edge are the bait incentivizing the insiders. And in the US prediction markets are regulated like commodities which have much more lax insider rules, because again, insider trading is the point.

If the value is insider information, and assuming it's legal, wouldn't it be better if the major newspaper offer a big pile of money to insiders that leak the data? At least there will be some level of ethical checking.

> wouldn't it be better if the major newspaper offer a big pile of money to insiders that leak the data?

so why would a newspaper pay money for information they cannot recover or monetize? Where would this money come from in the first place, because even if they wanted to do this out of altruism, they will simply run out of money after a while.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#278

Post by JumpinJack_Cash »

ipaddr wrote: post #89
Waterluvian wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…

The insiders ruin a market like this. Unlike in sports/stocks there are no rules / punishment for insider trading.

The stock market and the sports market are also honeypots .

I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn if you believe that when you bet on the stock market or on the sports market for each and every particular bet involving millions of people the maximum profit is not reaped by a half a dozen of insiders who trade on inside informations and their only problem is not being too obvious about it.

Also even if they get caught the millions of people wagering are still getting fucked because there is not a redo or making people whole when the insider traders get caught (which is a tiny percentage of the time)

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#279

Post by watwut »

Waterluvian wrote: post #43
fzil wrote: post #3

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

I think the idea behind a prediction market is pretty interesting, especially from an economics dataset point-of-view. And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?" But we're in an era of less and less responsible government oversight, so the whole thing naturally gets ruined if there's no guardrails to prevent peoeple without souls or…

> And there's probably a lot of fun, harmless things to bet on. eg. "Will Conan lead an extravagent musical number at the Oscars?"

What about calling it "gambling" rather then "prediction market"? And then applying the gambling regulation on what is gambling.

People betting on stuff is not exactly a novel idea, the novel thing is how they are avoiding the regulations.

Re: Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

#280

Post by maybelsyrup »

wmil wrote: post #184
bitmasher9 wrote: post #32

I don’t understand how this isn’t an immediate open and shut case for the police, assuming certain facts are verified independently. At the point that you’re making death threats to strangers you should be removed from civil society.

Reporters for The Times of Israel get a lot of death threats. I doubt this was the author's first one. So it's common and hard to prosecute because the person threatening is most likely in another country.

Honestly this behavior is pretty representative of the place, in my experience.
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