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Tesla is committing automotive suicide

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#271

Post by stickfigure »

scottyah wrote: post #263
stickfigure wrote: post #150

Bipedal robots are dumb. A robot that can only walk around my house is still useless. A robot that can wheel or track or even park in front of my dryer and fold laundry would be incredible. Yet every demo is Robot Jumps And Dances, not Robot Does Something Useful. My theory is that bipedal motion is the "easy" problem, and fine motor control is the hard problem. That makes me bearish on Optimus: A car with questionab…

Bipedal robots are an easy drop-in replacement for humans. It just becomes a software problem for them to do any task we do- your tracks are fun until you want the robot to drive your car, walk around the side of the house, or even go up the stairs.

> Bipedal robots are an easy drop-in replacement for humans.

Robots that merely walk around are just as useless as humans who merely walk around.

A robot that folds laundry would be useful even if it was built into the washing machine.

The legs are not important. The arms are important. Show me the arms doing something useful, if you can.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#272

Post by throw310822 »

youngtaff wrote: post #224
stickfigure wrote: post #150

Bipedal robots are dumb. A robot that can only walk around my house is still useless. A robot that can wheel or track or even park in front of my dryer and fold laundry would be incredible. Yet every demo is Robot Jumps And Dances, not Robot Does Something Useful. My theory is that bipedal motion is the "easy" problem, and fine motor control is the hard problem. That makes me bearish on Optimus: A car with questionab…

Chinese manufacturers were recently reporting that people were twice as efficient as humanoid robots

Twice as efficient is an incredible achievement if you think that a few years ago humanoid robots struggled to stay upright and couldn't locate their own... well, charging port.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#273

Post by MBCook »

nailer wrote: post #259
MBCook wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did I say that? I was using the classic idea of the flying car as an example of a thing that has been out of reach as an as a product for normal people and may not actually be successful if it were to really be sold. Replace flying car with whatever example you want. To put it in a different way, you could be so busy figuring out how to do it that you don’t figure out that a business case doesn’t actually exist…

> > Are you saying SpaceX doesn't make money? > Where did I say that? > > > Just because you can figure out how to do something doesn’t mean you’re going to make money at it.

Oh come on. Lots of successful companies are based on something they figured out how to do that others hadn’t.

I really was not trying to slam his other companies.

I think you’re reading too much into this. Making humanoid robots is not a guaranteed path to riches. That’s all I’m trying to say.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#274

Post by NetMageSCW »

stefan_ wrote: post #25
ClarityJones wrote: post #13

The author said he saw Tesla prove that EVs were profitable, but it was profitable when taxpayers gave it $7,500 per vehicle sold... That's the whole profit margin on higher-end cars, and more profit than most mass-market makers get. EVs were never profitable.

Also helps if Obama gives you $500M to R&D the Model S.

That was a very long time ago and many billions ago and it was a loan that was repaid with interest in two years.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#275

Post by throw310822 »

bottlepalm wrote: post #84

Give me a break. Tesla has 4 different, 4 person cars. It's redundant. In manufacturing and business, reducing variability is everything. Engineering and supply chain has now been freed from two entire SKUs. That's massive. In a self driving world, they don't really the Model 3 either. The best part is no part - well getting rid of two entire vehicles worth of parts that contributed very little to the bottom line is…

> Tesla has 4 different, 4 person cars. It's redundant.

You must be a topologist.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#276

Post by jinushaun »

amelius wrote: post #47
this_user wrote: post #10

They had the first mover advantage, but then Musk lost interest in the company and let it just sit there for the last five years or so without making sure that they have a future-proof product pipeline and that those products are actually being delivered on a reasonable schedule. Now they are increasingly turning into an EV also-ran while their moonshots are unlikely to work out any time soon. Realistically, he shoul…

The problem is that EVs are basically a solved problem. There isn't any technological advantage to be gained, since the technology in an EV is very basic (+) compared to ICE vehicles. So then it comes down to manufacturing, and there China is king. (+) Except for the battery, but that's a very long term battle with very tiny steps.

You can say the same about the traditional car industry. Just because it’s a “solved problem” doesn’t mean you can ignore the TAM.

I think people are frustrated because Musk has been pretty up front that Tesla only exists to further his goals for Mars and robots. He doesn’t actually care about selling cars.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#277

Post by scottyah »

stickfigure wrote: post #271
scottyah wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bipedal robots are an easy drop-in replacement for humans. It just becomes a software problem for them to do any task we do- your tracks are fun until you want the robot to drive your car, walk around the side of the house, or even go up the stairs.

> Bipedal robots are an easy drop-in replacement for humans. Robots that merely walk around are just as useless as humans who merely walk around. A robot that folds laundry would be useful even if it was built into the washing machine. The legs are not important. The arms are important. Show me the arms doing something useful, if you can.

Why would I show you arms of current robots doing something useful? You said "Bipedal robots are dumb" and that's all I talked about.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#278

Post by perardi »

nailer wrote: post #258
vel0city wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> so I can fly out to watch a successful Starship launch Not just watch a launch, but go to O'Hare to launch and go to Sydney in ~30min. In September 2017 they said we'd be flying Earth-to-Earth on a BFR last year .

Technology sometimes takes longer than estimates.

And in Musk’s case, “longer” means “abandoned”. Like the cheap model 3. Or the Hyperloop. Or swappable batteries. Or X as an everything app that includes banking.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#279

Post by moogly »

z2 wrote: post #7

Tesla also announced they will be discontinuing the basic lane keep + adaptive speed cruise control they helped pioneer in cars sold going forward. But this is now a standard (free) feature even in basic vehicles like the Toyota Corolla. Why would they intentionally cripple their vehicles to the point hat they would be inferior to most cars today? Then I learned that Musk's incentive pay has a 10 million full self-dr…

They should have discontinued the phantom braking instead.

Re: Tesla is committing automotive suicide

#280

Post by slumberlust »

worik wrote: post #101
Nevermark wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is rockets, now global satellite internet, ... To credibly harness off-world resources at any scale, there are going to need to be automated refueling depots and many kinds of robotic automation for resource extraction. With the Asteroid Belt looking amazing for quantity and accessibility of resources. That would also completely remove the lid on how many $ trillions of market cap SpaceX could accrue. So I fin…

> With the Asteroid Belt looking amazing for quantity and accessibility of resources. Watch out universe, here we come! What could possibly go wrong, mining asteroids? An awful lot, when we start messing with orbital dynamics in the asteroid belt. But Space X can externalise those risks. It will probably be centuries before disturbed orbits start to threaten Earth... So who cares? Me.

The expanse and A City on Mars covers the risk pretty well.
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