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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

271–280 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#271
post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? AI assisted shopping for example will boost growth. Productivity also boosts growth.

How does AI assisted shopping create more economic activity? Even assuming you can do it, and people do find it helpful, it likely just shifts who people buy from, not how much?

How did Amazon.com create more economic activity? Same way. It just has to make it more efficient.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#272
post #269

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody pays attention to things aligned to the fundamentals. When people are crying that there is a bubble, it is a bubble. Plain and simple. We know for certain it was a bubble as non-bubbles have sustainable growth. As all the software developers now struggling to find work will be happy to tell you, the growth wasn't sustainable. The proof is in the pudding.

How do you prove that software development is a bubble? Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.

> How do you prove that software development is a bubble?

By looking at the software development market. How else would you do it? Salaries rose sharply from 2020-2023, but then plateaued and are now starting to decline. Slowly, however. It did not crash. It ticks the boxes: Rapid price appreciation, speculation, a disconnect from fundamentals, widespread media attention, and an eventual correction.

> Stock prices are at all time high and continuously growing.

If we're sharing random facts: Global average temperature is also at an all time high and continuously increasing.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#273

What if... there's an AI agent/bot someone wrote that has the prompt: > Watch HN threads for sentiments of "AI Can't Do It". When detected, generate short "it's working marvelously for me actually" responses. Probably not, but it's a fun(ny) imagination game.

90% of the time people are praising the benefits of AI it seems like they are copy pasting something from their Chatbot so you’re not far off.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looking at both of these I'm struggling to understand why AI exponentially increased the productivity and quality of either of these examples. Especially since I don't see open source code anywhere, I can't get a good gauge of quality either. I've built tools like this on the web in the past. They were never more than a weekends worth of work to begin with. I am looking for exponential increases, with quality to back…

Tools like this in the past? Open source isn't even necessary to prove the point, you want to see exponential increase, closing half an open source projects and year long pending bugs in span of minutes? https://github.com/nadermx/backgroundremover/commits?author=...

This commit graph seemingly shows that they fixed a couple bugs over like a week. Period that involves changing like six lines of code. That code has no abstractions no structure and several problems you could poke holes in. While it may work and that’s great for whoever benefits, this isn’t very convincing as I can currently write more than six lines of code per day by hand

Re: Is it a bubble?

#275
post #49

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Yes, I save an incredible amount of time. I suspect I’m likely 5-10x more productive, though it depends exactly what I’m working on. Most of the issues that you cite can be solved, though it requires you to rewire the programming part of your brain to work with this new paradigm. To be honest, I don’t really have a problem with chunking my tasks. The reason I don’t is because I don’t really think about it that way. I…

Your site has waterfalls and flashes of unstyled content. It loads slowly and the whole design is basically exactly what every AI-designed site looks like. All of the work you described is essentially manual labor. It's not difficult work - just boring, sometimes error prone work that mostly requires you to do obvious things and then tackle errors as they pop up in very obvious ways. Great use case for AI, for sure.…

Let me see your typical manual piece of work, I'm sure I'll be able to tear it apart in a way that really hurts your ego :)

Re: Is it a bubble?

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them.

I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators. It really comes mostly down to being able to concisely and eloquently define what you want done. It also is important to understand what the default tendencies and biases of the model are so you know where to lean in a little. Occasionally you need to provide reference material. The capabilities have grown dramatically in the last 6 months.…

> I beginning to think most "advanced" programmers are just poor communicators.

This is a interesting take take considering that programmers are experts in communicating what someone has asked for (however vaguely) into code.

I think you're referring to is the transition from 'write code that does X' which is very concrete to 'trick an AI into writing the code I would have written, only faster', which feels like work that's somewhere between an art form and asking a magic box to fix things over and over again until it stops being broken (in obvious ways, at least).

Understandably people that prefer engineered solutions do not like the idea of working this way very much.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Internetspeed is a 3 years old app. So what exactly are you talking about?

This is what you remember https://web.archive.org/web/20231106214450/https://www.inter... . What you see now, I did in an afternoon with AI; it's monumental. No way I could of done that in that time. At all.

Yeah but what was wrong with the previous implementation that it had to be redone?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#278
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

source: me I wrote 4000 lines of Rust code with Codex - a high throughput websocket data collector. Spoiler: I do not know Rust at all. I discussed possible architectures with GPT/Gemini/Grok (sync/async, data flow, storage options, ...), refined a design and then it was all implemented with agents. Works perfectly, no bugs.

Since when is a 4000 line of code project "advanced software"? That's about the scope of a sophomore year university CompSci project, something where there's already a broad consensus AI does quite well.

4K was never advanced software. Even in the 90s, a typical Enterprise sofware was several 100 KLOC. A decade later, it had grown to a few million LOC while system software are also similar size.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#280

I am shocked at the discourse over this. I'm either ahead of the curve or behind; but its undeniable that AI can and does write most the code. Not trivial, if you spend some time and dig deep into simple appearing web apps like https://microphonetest.com or https://internetspeed.my you'd be amazed at how fast they went from mvp to full feature. Trivial to think anyone could pull off something like that in hours.

So, just an advertisement for what you built? As for the apps, what's so great about them? I'm genuinely curious.

With respect to the microphone test site I don't need it as my OS provides everything I need for this and I also don't trust your site (that's just by default for what you're asking to have access or my machine).

As for the speed test, OK? There are far better options that already exist and are fully open source.

Building things that are trivial, or already exist aren't exciting. It's great that you feel you went from MVP to "full feature". But IMO both of these are MVPs as they stand. They're not worth much to anyone but you, most likely.

The final thing I'll say is both of these examples have the vibe coded look. It's just like text, images and audio now: AI content is easy to pick out. I'd gather things will get better, but for now there's low likelihood I'm interacting with these in any meaningful way and zero chance I'm buying anything from sites like these.

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