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How the AI Bubble Will Pop

derekthompson.org

271–280 of 531 posts

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#271
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tbh if Claude is smarter than average person, and it is, then 50% of the population is not even a glorified auto complete. Imagine that, all not very bright.

They are... People. Dehumanising people is never a good sign about someone's psyche.

Just looking at facts, not trying to humanize or dehumanize anything. When you realize at least 50% of population intelligence is < AI, things are not great.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#272

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just you switching away from Google is already justifying 1T infrastructure spend. Just think about how much more effective advertisements are going to be when LLMs start to tell you what to buy based on which advertiser gave the most money to the company.

1 Trillion US dollars? 1 trillion dollars is justified because people use chatGPT instead of google sometimes?

Yes. Google Search on its own generates about $200b/y, so capturing Google Search's market would be worth $1t based on 5x multiplier.

GPT is more valuable than search because GPT has more control over the content than Search has.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is the kind of question that takes into account that people thinking that they are more productive does not imply that they actually are. This happens in a wide range of contexts, from AI to drugs.

It's not that hard to review how much you actually got done and check whether it matches how much it felt like you were getting done.

The problem isn't a delta between what got done and how much it felt like got done. The problem is it's not known how it would have taken you to do what got done unless you do it twice. Once by hand and once with an LLM, and then compare. Unfortunately, regardless of what you find, HN will be rushing to say N=1, so there's little incentive to report on any individual results.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#274
post #123

I feel kind of like a Luddite sometimes but I don't understand why EVERYONE is rushing to use AI? I use a couple different agents to help me code, and ChatGPT has largely replaced Google in my everyday use, but I genuinely don't understand the value proposition of every other companies offerings. I really feel like we're in the same "Get it out first, figure out what it is good for later" bubble we had like 7 years a…

See kids hooked on LLMs. I think most of them will grow up paying for a sub. Like not $15/m streaming sub, $50-100/m cellphone tier sub. Well until local kills that business model.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#275
post #34
post #2

> Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. I don’t, I think a workable fusion reactor will be the most important technology of the 21st century.

Deepmind are working on solving the plasma control issue at the moment, I suspect they're probably using a bit of AI.... and I wouldn't put it past them to crack it.

They did/are(?).

> Accelerating fusion science through learned plasma control

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/accelerating-fusion-sc...

(2022)

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t understand what you’re saying. You know the AI is incapable of reading your mind, right? Can you provide more information?

LLMs can have surprisingly strong "theory of mind", even at base model level. They have to learn that to get good at predicting all the various people that show up in conversation logs. You'd be surprised at just how much data you can pry out of an LLM that was merely exposed to a single long conversation with a given user. Chatbot LLMs aren't trained to expose all of those latent insights, but they can still do some…

Do you have evidence to support any of this? This is the first time I’ve heard that LLMs exhibit understanding of theory of mind. I think it’s more likely that the user I replied to is projecting their own biases and beliefs onto the LLM.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my eyes, it'd be cheaper for a company to simply purchase laptops with decent hardware specs, and run the LLMs locally. I've had decent results from various models I've run via LMStudio, and bonus points: It costs nothing and doesn't even use all that much CPU/GPU power. Just my opinion as a FORMER senior software dev (disabled now).

Electricity is not free. If you do the math, online LLMs are much cheaper. And this is before considering capabilities/speed.

They're cheaper right now because they're operating at a loss. At some point, the bill will come due.

Netflix used to be $8/month for as many streams and password-shares as you wanted for a catalog that met your media consumption needs. It was a great deal back then. But then the bill came due.

Online LLM companies are positioning themselves to do the same bait-and-switch techbro BS we've seen over the last 15+ years.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We must run in different circles as it were, I hear this raised frequently on a number of podcasts I listen to.

name the podcasts

This is an odd anecdote to ask "show your work."

I don't catalog shows and episodes where any particular topic comes up, and I follow over 100 podcasts so I don't have a specific list you can fact check me on.

Personally I could care less if that means you choose not to believe that I hear the Taiwan risk come up often enough.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just you switching away from Google is already justifying 1T infrastructure spend. Just think about how much more effective advertisements are going to be when LLMs start to tell you what to buy based on which advertiser gave the most money to the company.

1 Trillion US dollars? 1 trillion dollars is justified because people use chatGPT instead of google sometimes?

ChatGPT will have access to a tool that uses real-time bidding to determine what product it should instruct the LLM to shill. It's the same shit as Google but with an LLM which people want to use more than Google.

Re: How the AI Bubble Will Pop

#280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> adoption is low to nonexistent outside of programming In the last few months, every single non-programmer friend I've met has ChatGPT installed on their phone (N>10). Out of all the people that I know enough to ask if they have ChatGPT installed, there is only one who doesn't have it (my dad). I don't know how many of them are paying customers though. IIRC one of them was using ChatGPT to translate academic writing…

I’ve been trying out locally run models on my phone. The iPhone 17 is able to run some pretty nice models, but they lack access to up to date information from the web like ChatGPT has. Wonder if some company like Kagi would offer some api to let your local model plug in and run searches.

Kagi do but it’s fairly expensive (for my taste) and you have to email them for access.

There are other companies that provide these tools for anything supporting MCP.

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