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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#271

Post by andsoitis »

b112 wrote: post #234
dcow wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We may have swung the pendulum a little too far towards deliberate, though. The birthrate right now is below replacement rate, meaning that if we keep going like this (even if the birthrate doesn't keep trending down and holds steady) that society will die off. We need to figure out how to build an economy and society that can facilitate deliberate responsible parentage younger and more often. Luckily we have generat…

Too far is an understatement. People keep poking at the wrong reasons, but in some societies it is quite dire. South Korea with this year of 1, when 2.1 means 'static', means more than halving the population every 30 years or so. For a reverse comparison, if you take a penny and double it every day, you end up with > $5M in 30 days. And yet this birthrate issue doesn't take into account plague, war, natural disasters…

> What happens when no one can have children?

That sounds like the plot of a sci-fi movie.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#272

Post by BLKNSLVR »

lupusreal wrote: post #93
deadbabe wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And most young people would rather have social media that lets them easily be tracked than staying anonymous for the purposes of committing crimes.

Even if you leave your phone at home to create an alibi for yourself, it is very likely that CCTVs will see you enroute to the crime scene, if not at the crime scene itself. Between businesses with cameras, front door cameras on houses, and traffic cameras, it's very difficult to travel anywhere without leaving a trace that investigators can pick up after the fact if they're sufficiently motivated.

I have a (likely lifelong) mostly-unrealised project to try and document all the things necessary to maximise the anonymity of committing a petty crime, with the vague notion of turning it into a meta-story about the joys of pointless intellectual pursuits that cost far more than they materially return.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#273

Post by boston_clone »

wskinner wrote: post #231
boston_clone wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

there is no research to support the notion that mass incarceration leads to a reduction in crime; full stop.

The scholarly debate is over how large and how lasting the effect is, not whether any evidence exists.

Is it not that studies show how mass incarceration increases likelihood of children to be offenders, not make them less likely to do so?

e.g., an incarcerated parent before the age of 12 increases the chances of being in jail after 18 by 230%

I genuinely don’t recall anything to support the idea that incarceration decreases crime, in general, at all…

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#274

Post by andsoitis »

naasking wrote: post #177
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> All of these working together means that each year the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources. Which in turn should mean fewer youth delinquency, which as the article notes is how most in prison started out. Or the less popular more controversial hypothesis: the steepest decline in births is among the poor, a population with, on average, worse impulse control and…

> the steepest decline in births is among the poor, a population with, on average, worse impulse control and more issues with mental health, and since all qualities are at least partly heritable... Surprisingly, the fertility rate among the affluent does not appear to be nearly as impacted.

Generally, fertility rates are higher among poorer populations compared to wealthier populations. This pattern is observed both at the national level, with poorer countries generally having higher fertility rates than wealthier ones, and at the individual level, with poorer families tending to have more children than wealthier families.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/december/link...

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#275

Post by mrweasel »

bluGill wrote: post #55
strict9 wrote: post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

> Don't read the above as advocating having kids too young, it is not.

Depending on the circumstances in a persons country, maybe getting children at a young age isn't that dumb. I'd argue that the best time to get kids is as a university student. You get free daycare, the government doubles your stipend (and it's extended), your housing subsidy increases, you generally have more free time as a student, grandparents are younger and able to help more and you have more energy and can more easily deal with lose of sleep.

As a bonus, when your kids move out, you're not even 40 year olds.

The only real issue is: Have you meet the right partner yet?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#276

Post by edflsafoiewq »

b112 wrote: post #236
quantified wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A plane at 75,000 feet can descend for a long time and then level off without crashing. Eventually population will stop declining. Everyone needs to just chill about a declined birthrate.

What is your proof that it will not decline further? If you have no proof, then at the very least the cause must be investigated. After all, the concern is that the current rate of declining birth rate, means extinction in a few centuries. You don't just shrug that off and say "oh well, it'll probably be just fine."

There are subpopulations with high birth rates. They are very small currently, but if you really think the general population will die off for want of reproduction, eventually they will comprise a sufficiently large fraction of the population to raise the overall birth rate.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#277

Post by arkey »

mrweasel wrote: post #275
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

> Don't read the above as advocating having kids too young, it is not. Depending on the circumstances in a persons country, maybe getting children at a young age isn't that dumb. I'd argue that the best time to get kids is as a university student. You get free daycare, the government doubles your stipend (and it's extended), your housing subsidy increases, you generally have more free time as a student, grandparents…

> I'd argue that the best time to get kids is as a university student. You get free daycare, the government doubles your stipend (and it's extended), your housing subsidy increases, you generally have more free time as a student...

Where... where do you live? I'm all for having kids as soon as possible, but I was barely able to provide for just myself during university.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#278

Post by arkey »

anyfoo wrote: post #84
bluGill wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

We did wait for the “perfect” time, and are very happy we did. I got my son at almost 40, and I’m positive I’m a much better parent because of that. Sure, kids cost energy, but at 40 and 50 you’re not geriatric. I often get the opportunity to compare our parenting style to younger parents, and it’s clear that they often have some emotional growing up to do themselves. They complain about normal parenting things that…

> they often lack patience, where to us it just comes natural.

Having kids fast-tracked me to a critical increase in patience. I've grown so much in less than three years because of my kids. I'm not sure this growth would have ever happened so quickly through other means.

And I'll always have a special, particular respect especially towards my firstborn for causing that in me, and for enduring my shortcomings in the meantime.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#279

Post by [deleted] »

nradov wrote: post #200
mymythisisthis wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People also have fewer possessions worth stealing and trying to hock? It's not like TVs and radios cost that much anymore. People wear less jewelry. Though this is not a significant factor, it might be worth putting on the list still.

Right, there has been a huge reduction in home burglaries over the past several decades. The only stuff really worth stealing anymore is cash, drugs, and firearms. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-021-00284-4

[deleted]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#280

Post by ath3nd »

wredcoll wrote: post #241
999900000999 wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue here is this can lead people to pushing it till 40+. I was talking to a nice girl up until she mentioned still wanting kids in her late 40s. Maybe I’m old school, but telling someone you froze your eggs the same day you meet them is weird. Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle. This rapidly transformed int…

> Society itself is broken. You SHOULD be able to graduate high school and make enough to support yourself and a family with a bit of struggle This has literally only been true for about 30 years out of the sum total of human history, would you like to guess when those 30 years happened to be? Obviously the answer is "1950s america". For the rest of human history, you needed something beyond the education you receive…

> Obviously the answer is "1950s america".

And the 50s to 80s anywhere else in the civilized world.

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