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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

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Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#191

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #128
throwaway_2121 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of boredom is also a factor. Social media and modern games are keeping them occupied.

People also have fewer possessions worth stealing and trying to hock? It's not like TVs and radios cost that much anymore. People wear less jewelry. Though this is not a significant factor, it might be worth putting on the list still.

I was thinking that as I was getting ready to sell my house. I'm not a particularly materialistic person to start with, but there are hardly any physical objects in my home that I value that much besides (a) some photo albums/pictures and yearbooks - and for newer generations these are mostly digital I guess, (b) my violin and (c) my espresso machine and grinder. I guess you could throw my cellphone in there as well - easy to replace but would be a PITA, like losing my wallet. It'd be a pain to replace all my furniture and other stuff but I certainly don't feel any attachment to those things.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#193

Post by BirAdam »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #156
casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

America closes a college per week and multiple primary schools per week. There are fewer youth to commit crime or otherwise. In NYC the black community has a majority of pregnancies not end with the birth of a child. This is where abortion policy is focused.

It’s simpler and less nefarious than that. Kids have to meet up to produce offspring. If kids don’t meet up, no drugs, no sex, no kids having kids. Video games, smart phones, and chat apps are more likely the cause of this change.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#194

Post by dh2022 »

NoMoreNicksLeft wrote: post #68
antonymoose wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in a deep Red Bible thumping, back the blue, law and order county / state. About 7 years ago a former schoolmate of mine shot a man 6 times over a bad drug deal, fled the state to California. He was captured by the US Marshal and brought back to the county jail where he bonded out after 3 month. After his bonding out, he drove over to the victim’s parent’s house and performed a drive-by shooting, injuring none…

There should be statutory limitations for prosecutors concerning the use of plea deals. No more than 1% of cases in any calendar year should be permitted to even offer plea deals, so that they use that tool sparingly and only when appropriate. If they waste it out of laziness or apathy, then the subsequent cases that year would have to be brought to trial. This would cut down on alot of the bullshit (and not just for…

The problem is not the judge that approved a plea deal - the problem is the prosecutor who gave (negotiated maybe is a better term) such a lousy plea deal. After fleeing the state and being brought by US Marshal service I would think the prosecutor should have pushed for some state jail time.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#195

Post by snickerdoodle12 »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

That would also explain why the current administration is banning abortion. Got to keep the prison slaves flowing.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#196

Post by WalterBright »

energywut wrote: post #129
WalterBright wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At least in Seattle, crime is "way down" because many businesses have stopped reporting it, because the police don't respond to less serious crimes anymore. A shopkeeper friend of mine closed his business in Seattle after multiple lootings of his place and the police never showing up. He relocated to a bedroom community. Crime statistics are not necessarily accurate, and politicians have an interest in minimizing tho…

You have any data to support that? I've lived in Seattle for 40 years, and crime here is way less of a concern now than it ever has been. Especially violent crime. My experience also seems to match statistics. So, it would seem that your friend's experience might be the outlier -- I'm not saying they are wrong, I'm saying their experience doesn't match the data and there's at least one anecdote (mine) that runs count…

Googling "crime down in seattle due to lower reporting rates" results in:

"While crime rates in Seattle have recently shown a decrease, some reports suggest this may be partially attributed to a decline in reporting rather than a genuine reduction in criminal activity. Specifically, some authorities have noted that crimes against businesses, in particular, are frequently not reported."

"The police chief specifically mentioned that a 10% drop in property crime might not be entirely accurate because many business-related crimes go unreported."

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#197

Post by sieabahlpark »

casenmgreen wrote: post #25

Freakonomics argued that crime correlates to whether or not abortion is available. If it is not, crime rates are up, and by a lot. If it is, crime rates are down. When you flip from one to the other, takes about 15/20 years for the effect to show up. Rationale is that forcing parents to have their kids when they're not ready for them significantly increases delinquency in young adults. This is apparently the only pos…

[dead]

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#198

Post by pc86 »

stubish wrote: post #182
strict9 wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No it's not. Not entirely anyway. One thing I've learned in my decades on this planet is that just about never is one explanation for a human condition mostly correct. Lead is a convenient technical explanation that underestimates the impact of upbringing and community. It doesn't explain a lot of factors of juvenile delinquency that existed for generations before lead service lines or leaded gasoline.

Industry and highways and other high sources of lead pollution were built in the areas with higher juvenile delinquency. Not in rich, privileged areas. I think you can also correlate the rise in violent crime to amount of lead contamination in the soil, some articles claiming down to the city block level.

Which order did these things happen in?

Maybe industry and highways increase lead exposure which leads to crime, or maybe areas already high in crime are cheaper so that's where industry and highways go?

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#199

Post by treyd »

throwawaycities wrote: post #169
ericmcer wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is insane to just confidently assert that the only factor in the decrease in crime is Lead. Treating an insanely nuanced issue as an absolute doesn't make your argument more compelling, it is actually kind of baffling.

Why bother stopping at crime rates with that confidence? The 1st recorded cases of fatty liver disease and T2D in children were in the 1980’s are have continued growing since - lead must have been protecting children’s health. Testosterone has been on a sharp decline during this same time period - lead must promote healthy testosterone production. Debt of all kinds, from the national debt, to household debt, to stude…

If you do the same comparison of the rates of leaded gasoline during childhood to adulthood crime rates across different countries which have different histories of leaded gasoline usage, you notice that the correlation persists. While of course correlation does not imply causation, it's a link that's fairly well-established in literature, it's not a spurious correlation, and we know that lead has concrete neurological effects, so it's plausible from a pharmacological basis.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#200

Post by nradov »

mymythisisthis wrote: post #128
throwaway_2121 wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lack of boredom is also a factor. Social media and modern games are keeping them occupied.

People also have fewer possessions worth stealing and trying to hock? It's not like TVs and radios cost that much anymore. People wear less jewelry. Though this is not a significant factor, it might be worth putting on the list still.

Right, there has been a huge reduction in home burglaries over the past several decades. The only stuff really worth stealing anymore is cash, drugs, and firearms.

https://doi.org/10.1057/s41284-021-00284-4

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