271–280 of 310 posts
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China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?
When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?
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What it doesn't mean is a "collapse", which is how you are framing it. It won't be overnight. I assume you are a fellow geek so picture moving a huge infrastructure off of AWS and/or going "multi-cloud". It's not a switch that you flip and definitely not something upper management would want unless AWS keeps crashing and its fabled SLAs don't hold up. Assurances. Entire supply chains (and everything that goes to make…
"unless Russia collapses first". Yes, that is the very likely outcome indeed. You are aware that the GDP of Russia is less than that of several individual European countries? And I mean individual. Germany alone has twice the GDP. You are woefully overestimating the Russian economy in the first place.
But the global economic picture really requires understanding of how China decides to act. People tend to view the world according to their own civilizational context, so for example, the Western geopolitical analysis du jour posits a “Thucydides‘s Trap” vis a viz US and China. Chinese, on the other hand, have their own ready and applicable historic paradigms to apply to the global order. The ‘Three Kingdoms’ period of Chinese history is how the Chinese view the world. You will also need to understand that the fabled Chinese “century of humiliation” includes Russians in the list of offending nations. It’s a complex and subtle calculus for the Chinese leadership and having a very aggressive and successful RF on their border is not entirely in their interest in the long term. [but p.s. going “multi-cloud” definitely is what they want.]
Earlier quoted context omitted.
China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?
When is the last time the US annexed land or tried to?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> As I said, most European countries don't have an ADIZ, and a number of those reported cases are of actual violations of national airspace. Not ADIZs. Articles should distinguish between them, then. A headline of "Russian aircraft violated European airspace nearly 300 times" with "flying close to NATO airspace" in the actual copy is irresponsible journalism.
The imprecision's of some journalist's pale, comparing to the irresponsible behaviours that endager the security of others. Can you imagine any European country doing actions like: "Tactics typically deployed by Russian pilots include a practice of deliberately failing to report flight plans, ignoring civilian air traffic controllers and switching off their on-board transponders that NATO Secretary General Jens Stolt…
> Military aircraft are not required by international law to file flight plans with a country’s Air Traffic Service before flying through their Flight Information Region (FIR)...
We violate airspace from time to time: https://www.cnn.com/2014/08/02/us/us-spy-plane/index.html
> The quickest route away from the Russians took them into Swedish airspace. The U.S. official acknowledged that was done without Swedish military approval.
> As a result of this incident, the United States is discussing the matter with Sweden and letting officials know there may be further occurrences where American jets have to divert so quickly they may not be able to wait for permission.
And we fuck around with transponders: https://news.yahoo.com/u-spy-plane-impersonates-malaysian-13...
> A U.S. Air Force aircraft electronically impersonated a Malaysian plane while flying over the South China Sea this week. The RC-135W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft flew off China’s Hainan island on Tuesday, coming within 55 miles of the Chinese mainland.
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They did quite a bit of invading inbetween, though.
Korea/Vietnam- Invited by host governments Grenada- response to a coup d'e´tat with a multinational force Panama- technically Noriega declared a state of war first (not the brightest move) Desert Storm - response to Iraqi invasion/aggression Haiti - restore democratically elected president Bosnia- UN sanctioned response to Serbian aggression Afghanistan- response to Twin Towers - 9/11 aggression. The worst thing we d…
In the case of Korea at least, they were fighting off the Soviet installed dictator, but in Vietnam they were fighting off the longstanding indigenous anti colonial movement.
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There's a significant chance their nuclear weapons are in absolute shambles, but who wants to call that bluff? Additionally, even if their nuclear forces are in shambles, it really only takes a single launch to set off nuclear war. It's not like their entire nuclear force needs to function in order for the world to see a very bad outcome.
> Additionally, even if their nuclear forces are in shambles, it really only takes a single launch to set off nuclear war. Not really - a single launch order has to be communicated and obeyed. No one single person can launch it. Then where is it launched to ? Uninhabited area, high altitude or a population center of a non-nuclear power? You think Russia is cancelled now - imagine after firing off a nuclear weapon - C…
When I say "shambles" I don't mean "0% functional, can't even launch a missile."
The system would have to be minimally functional to at least launch something. But at that point, even if the warhead is a dud or the rocket explodes immediately after launch, or goes off target, etc - the genie is well and truly out of the bottle.
Just yesterday I was thinking: What if others started to grab territory, which Russia claims to be its territory around the world now? Wouldn't that be fortunate timing and overload Russian army? Today I read this.
I too have taken Russia's actions as both precedent and the distraction needed to make my own move. I declared the basement of my house (finished, furnished) complete with bathroom, sink and microwave, to be my own sovereign domain. The consequences for violating that territory will be such as none in my household have ever in their history experienced.
None is superior to their guerilla and sabotage tactics
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China and Taiwan would be a lot more interesting Out of the three major nuclear powers, I’d say only Russia would ever get sanctions for invading and occupying land. When was the last time US got sanctions?
> When was the last time US got sanctions? A more relevant question would be "from whom?" You can't sanction someone much, much larger than yourself.
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> serious problems, like relying on civilian GPS So their _own_ GPS-system Glonass, not the US GPS.
They appear to be using civilian equipment from all over. And unsecured civilian radio, too.
When I was at the military we "learned" that encrypted communication makes no sense when the transmitted content effects events no longer than half a day into the future as the opponent cannot take effective countermeasures anyway.
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Thankfully, Article 9 is still in Japan's constitution, so it's very unlikely that any action would happen. Just rolling back to pre-2018 status quo, before Japan was seemingly willing to resolve the dispute at last.
Article 9 doesn’t really mean what it says, at least in practice. If Japan is attacked the state won’t just roll over and die - it’ll try to defend itself (hence the JSDF). You can read it as forbidding offensive war, but if Japan has claimed that those islands are part of Japan for a while then there’s enough of an argument for it being defensive war that no one will much care.