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China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

economist.com

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Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#271

Post by stjohnswarts »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #208
TheAdamAndChe wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The democracy is still in a good shape despite some challenges. What political pathways do you see for correcting both our two-party system and increased gerrymandering? It seems to me like those two factors are large contributors to our increasing political polarization, and fixing them would require the political parties to behave irrationally from a game theory perspective.

Easy: give the individual states more responsibility. This has already begun. There is really no reason why California and Alabama need to have 100% of the same laws on highly contentious issues. It's not called the United States for nothing.

Actually there is because southern states are well on their way to removing women's rights to do what they want with their body, installing theocratic governments, and resurrecting Jim Crow laws. If that's not a reason for more federal involvement I don't know what is.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#272

Post by blaser-waffle »

gokhan wrote: post #238
Daho0n wrote: post #23

It's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest…

This will continue until the people of the West feel threatened by China. And then, I think it will be a new playing field for Chine where they need to lay low and do fancy PR, which is not something they're capable of. During the height of the pandemic, Chinese ambassadors all over the world handled public relations terribly. We'll see worst when they need to speak directly to the people of other nations when things…

This is them doing fancy PR: paying for hit pieces in the Economist.

They are aggressively making moves in the South China Sea and going full-tilt on the propaganda.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#273

Post by bruiseralmighty »

rnd0 wrote: post #260
bruiseralmighty wrote: post #236

I mean the US is going to shit, but it's important to ask: "Compared to what?" Our demographical outlook is actually much better than any other developed nation. China's economy is based on the export of manufacturing goods. We are their main customer. More importantly, we are set up to be their only main customer for the next generation at least due to birth rates. Every other developed nation has had a declining bi…

When you say "Our demographical outlook" what do you mean, and how is it better than other nations?

Apologies I was referring to the birth-rates I referenced below that sentence.

Basically our population pyramid compared to other countries.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#274

Post by stjohnswarts »

starfallg wrote: post #269
Daho0n wrote: post #23

It's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest…

>IMO the biggest failure in all this is that the opposition to PRC's rise is the same old as we have seen before and it's very clear that it will fail. As an outsider to both the US and PRC it looks to me like the US does all it can to shoot itself in the foot continually for whatever reason while PRC is playing on a totally different level. Maybe because US policy are mostly only until next election? I would say it'…

Not sticking with the TPP was such a dumb move by Trump (but I believe Hillary was going to dump it as well, so it's days were numbered either way). We need to step back into that agreement and put more weight behind it and working with democratic countries for manufacturing rather than with dictatorships.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#275

Post by skywal_l »

k_sze wrote: post #203
skywal_l wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> they've seen past the values of the West Interesting. What would you consider are the values of the West? And, in your opinion, what are the values of the Chinese society? And don't you think there are overlaps and so, which one? No retorical questions, I am truly interesting in your answer.

Or maybe I should put it another way: they've seen past the priorities of values of the West. I think that, as civilisations, we all aspire to mostly the same values. We just have very different priorities. For the Chinese, it's economic progress over freedom. (In fact, they are mostly free to say whatever they want as long as they don't try to rally and secede or topple the government. As a point of anecdatum, I dis…

> For the Chinese, it's economic progress over freedom.

And do you think that this is the case because of some sort of permanence in chinese culture or is it just a transient artefact of the economic situation?

Is Chinese middle class really a known variable?

If you look at the west, the current doxa was not always focused on human rights and individual freedom. The same drive to economic progress has actually dominated much of its history since the renaissance and it can be argued that it was the main engine to political progress. My grand parent main political goal was mainly to ensure they would have enough to go by once they get old.

Don't you think that, as chinese middle class's economic situation evolves, its priority might not also change?

I think what's going to happen in china in the next 20 years are going to have as much impact on the world than the colonization of the new world by europeans 500 years ago. And chinese middle class will be at the center of it.

> We don't always agree with the official narrative. Neither of us has been censored or arrested.)

And if the chinese government were to do something that you consider truly horrible, would you consider that expressing your opinion openly and publicly would be considered "to rally and secede"?

Again I am not trying to trigger you, I am just trying to understand a collective state of mind on which, I believed, we are poorly informed in the west.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#276

Post by Daho0n »

gruez wrote: post #229
Daho0n wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Chinese have access to poisoned shitty water And the so-called top dog of the west have cities where people for years had to get bottled water because the whole city were poisoned and whole states are drying out. Not everyone in the west are as lucky as those of us with clean water. Definitely not the US.

>And the so-called top dog of the west have cities where people for years had to get bottled water because the whole city were poisoned and whole states are drying out. The point remains. Tap water is by default not drinkable, whereas water in the US is (barring some exceptions).

No it clearly is not. It migh be to you but I would never drink water in the US from the tap. When you are used to clean groundwater and discussions about water from the Alps not being clean enough then the water in the US is not even on the same level.

And how did it look in the US in the 70's when it were booming like China is now? Children in plastic cocoons because the air were toxic with lead, drinking water full of crap, dead fish everywhere from dumping of chemicals in lakes and sea, radioactive waste leaking, etc.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#277

Post by TearsInTheRain »

subpixel wrote: post #50
Daho0n wrote: post #23

It's very hard to disagree IMO. The west is in decline and unless something catastrophic happens in PRC or war breaks out (also pretty catastrophic) I can't see any future where the PRC isn't going to at least become on par with the US soon but most likely it will succeed it as top dog. The only question in my mind is where do the EU end up in all this and if Russia will become closer with PRC or EU. IMO the biggest…

> because US policy are mostly only until next election elections in the US are like earnings calls for public companies and drive the same short-term thinking.

The US is more than just its government. It is easy to argue that we are in a cultural decline as well. We all have agency in that regard.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#278

Post by vict7 »

centimeter wrote: post #200
vict7 wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What sort of eugenicist bs is this. Do you have a single source to back up these claims?

> Do you have a single source to back up these claims? I have many. You should start with these: https://www1.udel.edu/educ/gottfredson/30years/Rushton-Jense... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4270739/pdf/mp2...

Thanks for the source! Just finished the first one.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#279

Post by blaser-waffle »

paulmd wrote: post #247
satellite2 wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly democracy. Democracies that are actually constantly changing micro dictatures are failed democracies. It is perfectly reasonable to stop to discuss and aim for consensus when you are not able to reach an agreement. Otherwise each party just spends time and resources undoing what the other has done until then. Good democracies are actually those that go even further and try to incorporate the needs of…

I don't think anyone considers, let's say the UK or Canada as a "micro-dictatorship". The UK and other parliamentary systems have fewer checks and balances with a deliberate orientation to producing a government with a mandate to rule, for example the leader of the executive branch is always of the same party as the legislature. I think the US system is probably a de-optimization from that approach. This is just feti…

> The US system is actually not particularly good compared to other western liberal nations, due to the aforementioned frequent inability to form a government with a mandate to lead.

What other western nations? Examples, please.

If the choice is dictatorship that absolutely suppresses me, or a liberal government that panders a little harder than it should to virtual signal, I'd gladly take the latter any day of the week, even if it means putting up with ridiculous social justice wankery.

What does a world led by China have to offer anyone, except dictatorship and exploitation? "Communism with Chinese Characteristics" is just Crony Capitalism, with 1984-style repression.

Re: China is betting that the West is in irreversible decline

#280

Post by throwaway20875 »

vict7 wrote: post #262
throwaway20875 wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you share any data points on the rise of domestic white supremacist terrorism? I'm genuinely interested in what kind of threat this poses.

Here's two articles from within the last calendar year. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/24/us/domestic-terrorist-gro... https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/interactive/20...

They both reference the same CSIS study.

One of the quotes from the most recent study which seems to contradict there's a rise in violence:

"White supremacists, extremist militia members, and other violent far-right extremists were responsible for 66 percent of domestic terrorist attacks and plots in 2020—roughly consistent with their share in other recent years. For example, on June 7, Harry H. Rogers—a self-proclaimed leader of the Ku Klux Klan—intentionally drove his pick-up truck into a crowd of Black Lives Matter demonstrators in Henrico, Virginia. One protester was injured, and Rogers received a six-year prison sentence. In addition, anarchists, anti-fascists, violent environmentalists, and other violent far-left extremists conducted 23 percent of terrorist attacks and plots in 2020—an increase from the previous three years, in which violent far-left incidents comprised between 5 and 11 percent of all domestic terrorist attacks and plots. For example, on August 29 in Portland, Oregon, Michael Reinoehl—an Antifa extremist—followed two members of the far-right group Patriot Prayer and then shot and killed one of them, Aaron “Jay” Danielson."

These are important trends and I pay close attention to them as I believe we're going to be facing a sharply decreasing quality of life for the average American in the coming years which will provoke anger and unrest. These are going to be ingredients to serious problems, some of which will trigger a broad increase in violence. Unfortunately I have little faith in our current leadership or system to deal with these challenges.

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