After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again • Hacker News Board

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#271

Post by jimktrains2 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:00 AM UTC

yellowapple wrote: post #229

jimktrains2 wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So if a pacemaker has a bug, it's still overwhelmingly better than the baseline scenario of "no pacemakers." Unless it goes of when it's not needed and kills you.

Right, but the probability of you dying because you do have a pacemaker is (in the situations for which a pacemaker is prescribed) far less than the probability of you dying because you don't have a pacemaker. The same cannot yet be said about "self-driving" cars.

> Right, but the probability of you dying because you do have a pacemaker is (in the situations for which a pacemaker is prescribed) far less than the probability of you dying because you don't have a pacemaker.

That assumes the pacemaker works more often than it doesn't. (Which is the case now.) It's an unstated assumption that doesn't always apply when generalizing your example.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#272

Post by m463 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:01 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #106

SilasX wrote: post #7

I would be a lot more forgiving of these screwups if Tesla didn't constantly swear up and down that they've solved self-driving cars. As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety [1], and their recent Model Y announcement suggests that the only thing holding it up is regulatory approval, and not failure to achieve the desired spec. >Model Y will have Full Self-Driving…

I don't want to dismiss your whole point, because it is certainly valid, but that isn't really the issue here. It is entirely possible for bugs like this to exist in the self driving tech and for Tesla to be correct in their claims that Autopilot is on average safer than a human driver. It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too…

I think this graph:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a5/Causes_o...

puts a lot of arguments (and young people) to rest.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#273

Post by ec109685 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:02 AM UTC

dmitrygr wrote: post #223

ben174 wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly two cameras with different FOVs could be combined to give the same depth data that a stereo camera setup could give, right?

not if they are on the same axis. then anything along that axis cannot have its depth determined

It can through other signals. You can drive successfully with one eye.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#274

Post by ec109685 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:03 AM UTC

tbabb wrote: post #60

I have been yelling about this for a long time: Tesla is not going to be able to deliver full self-driving as promised. They don't have the hardware, for one (ranging is terrible; they need stereo cameras), and second, their software strategy seems to be a dead end. They need sensor fusion. The system needs to make maximum use of all the information available to it: Where is the road striping? Where are the other car…

I think you are confusing what the software is capable of today with hardware limitations in the sensors deployed in the cars.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#275

Post by ec109685 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:06 AM UTC

tbabb wrote: post #239

goshx wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If my anecdote is useful for anything, my car drives about 90% of my 25mi commute today on its own, including leaving one highway and going over a ramp to then merge into another highway. Needless to say that I’m extremely happy with what has been delivered so far.

I think a careful interpretation shows how far that is. A self-driving system ought not be considered reliable until it can drive O(100 million miles) without disconnecting once, in order to match human reliability (that's about the distance between fatal accidents currently). A guaranteed disconnect within 25 miles is many zeros of missing reliability. A Disney park engineer once relayed to me the philosophy for des…

On the flip side, with a million cars on the road, that is a lot of edge cases they see before they remove the steering wheel of their cars.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#276

Post by m463 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:06 AM UTC

erobbins wrote: post #138

I think Tesla eventually has a catastrophic accident and is sued and/or criminally prosecuted into oblivion. I feel sorry for the people who are going to have to die for this to happen. This trope that humans are bad drivers is, in general, crap. Humans are very good drivers. The US has 7.3 deaths per billion km driven. This means if you drive 50km a day, every day, you are (essentially) guaranteed to die... after 75…

yet the leading cause of death in youths is automobile accidents:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a5/Causes_o...

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#277

Post by rohit2412 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:09 AM UTC

throwaway789214 wrote: post #166

jessaustin wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps those drivers don't have your inside view of Tesla R&D?

Inside view not required, self-awareness of users should suffice to come to that conclusion (i.e. "I know nothing of the inner workings of this system, so my judgement has to be worse than that of the ones who designed it.").

Maybe you can tell Elon musk to be more self aware too.

https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-breaks-tesla-autop...

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#278

Post by thisisit » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:10 AM UTC

slg wrote: post #106

SilasX wrote: post #7

I would be a lot more forgiving of these screwups if Tesla didn't constantly swear up and down that they've solved self-driving cars. As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety [1], and their recent Model Y announcement suggests that the only thing holding it up is regulatory approval, and not failure to achieve the desired spec. >Model Y will have Full Self-Driving…

I don't want to dismiss your whole point, because it is certainly valid, but that isn't really the issue here. It is entirely possible for bugs like this to exist in the self driving tech and for Tesla to be correct in their claims that Autopilot is on average safer than a human driver. It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too…

> It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too. The question shouldn't be whether this technology is perfect, it should be whether this technology is safer than humans

I fail to understand this line of reasoning. Are you saying because humans tend to run into solid objects it is okay if the self driving cars do it, only if it does less times than humans?

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#279

Post by carlivar » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:12 AM UTC

goshx wrote: post #234

madeofpalk wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Musk is more optimistic than you Indeed. What Musk says and what Tesla delivers are two completely separate things.

If my anecdote is useful for anything, my car drives about 90% of my 25mi commute today on its own, including leaving one highway and going over a ramp to then merge into another highway. Needless to say that I’m extremely happy with what has been delivered so far.

And if your trip on autopilot is 99.9% reliable, how would you feel about that stat?

Do you find yourself paying attention to the road context the entire time? I'm curious if your mental acuity has dropped over time as the car has driven you.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#280

Post by ec109685 » Thu, Mar 21, 2019, 4:15 AM UTC

erobbins wrote: post #138

I think Tesla eventually has a catastrophic accident and is sued and/or criminally prosecuted into oblivion. I feel sorry for the people who are going to have to die for this to happen. This trope that humans are bad drivers is, in general, crap. Humans are very good drivers. The US has 7.3 deaths per billion km driven. This means if you drive 50km a day, every day, you are (essentially) guaranteed to die... after 75…

30k deaths a year in US, 50 years of driving. That is 1.5M deaths over your lifetime. Let’s say there are 690M drivers throughout your lifetime. You have a quarter of a percent chance of driving being your cause of death.

Also, 2.45% of deaths worldwide are from road accidents: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-deaths-by-cause-...