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After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

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Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#231
My Model 3 suddenly changed lanes today for no discernible reason. I think it considered my lane to jump over into the next lane, for some reason. I should have hit 'Record' to save the footage from TeslaCam.

(Notably, AutoPilot is not supposed to change lanes without explicit confirmation from the driver, which is clearly illustrated on the dashboard/panel.)

It's a stretch of road on which I have previously used AutoPilot many times.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#232

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's because -in general- marketing material doesn't tell the whole truth, just the selected bit that sounds impressive.

but still there's quite some difference in the fine prints between a new MacBook being "two times faster than previous model#" and a Tesla "comes with full self driving hardware&" # only on specific workloads & don't ever get distracted because it can literally kill you

this is the point I see getting lost. This isn't someone overstating the how good a pair of pants make me look. It's more like selling a flame thrower as a weeding tool.

I know that sometimes these lines are objective, but acting like you can't tell okay and not okay apart because the line is gray in some cases just seems to be bad faith.

If you are okay with Tesla misleading selling a prototype feature in the name of disruption, own your argument. If this level of risk is just okay to you because of the potential long term upsides...I disagree but I respect your willingness to say it. Just don't make a different one because you are afraid of the social consequences of your actual point.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#233
post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But would you still feel the way if a family member was killed in an accident where their human-controlled car was rear-ended by a Tesla? I don't have a dog in this fight, but appeals to emotion in order to drive irrational thinking do not make for constructive debate.

> appeals to emotion in order to drive irrational thinking do not make for constructive debate. In a perfect world, sure. Real world, you will never have an inherently emotional situation (road safety) where the only voices heard are those of completely detached individuals. As humans, we have to figure out ways to connect with them, and empathize with what they're feeling. Simply dismissing their concerns as driven…

Understanding the emotional reactions of people to situations is important. "How would you feel if"-type statements do not do that. They do, and are often intended to, shut down conversation instead of foster it.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#234
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is more optimistic than you - says late 2020 for sleep while the car drives https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8dEYm8hzLo&t=10m25s Also quite interestingly he says there will be a big jump forward in quality when they switch to their own computing hardware (18m40 or so)

> Musk is more optimistic than you Indeed. What Musk says and what Tesla delivers are two completely separate things.

If my anecdote is useful for anything, my car drives about 90% of my 25mi commute today on its own, including leaving one highway and going over a ramp to then merge into another highway. Needless to say that I’m extremely happy with what has been delivered so far.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#235
post #106
post #7

I would be a lot more forgiving of these screwups if Tesla didn't constantly swear up and down that they've solved self-driving cars. As far back as 2016 they were claiming they had full SDC capability above human driver safety [1], and their recent Model Y announcement suggests that the only thing holding it up is regulatory approval, and not failure to achieve the desired spec. >Model Y will have Full Self-Driving…

I don't want to dismiss your whole point, because it is certainly valid, but that isn't really the issue here. It is entirely possible for bugs like this to exist in the self driving tech and for Tesla to be correct in their claims that Autopilot is on average safer than a human driver. It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too…

>>It is obviously troubling to see self driving cars run into solid and stationary objects, but human drivers do that all the time too.

HAHAHA lol wow hahaha you're something. I hope you own a Tesla then.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#236
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk is more optimistic than you - says late 2020 for sleep while the car drives https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8dEYm8hzLo&t=10m25s Also quite interestingly he says there will be a big jump forward in quality when they switch to their own computing hardware (18m40 or so)

> late 2020 for sleep while the car drives Musk is often overly optimistic and he keeps underestimating the problem at hand. I call BS on this, it won't be ready in 5 or even 10 years. And then there is a regulatory approval.

Indeed though he's delivered some stuff. It'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#237
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't Teslas fare significantly worse than cars in similar class in terms of driver fatalities?

Are you asking about Teslas or Teslas being driven by Autopilot? Autopilot so far has a fatality rate of roughly 0.25 per 100 million miles. Just for information's sake the overall rate in the US in 2017 was 1.16 per 100 million miles. Although there are plenty of caveats that should prevent you from comparing those numbers directly. The national number is for all cars, all drivers, all conditions, etc while those dr…

That stat of 1.16 includes motor vehicles, motorcycles, pedestrians, buses, bicyclists and trucks. How is this a comparison to luxury electric cars again?

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For a $700 car I might consider crazy compromises, but $70k+? Absolutely not.

That's what I find so interesting with Tesla owner. They spend a fortune on a car, then they minimize every single issue they have with the car. My explanation for this is that for a lot of owners, the car is a way to be part of a hyped group more than being a utilitarian object (what a car should be).

The point non owners miss is that early adopters are aware of what they are buying and what to expect, while the very vocal know-it-alls of the interwebs are judging the technology as if it was supposed to be perfect. I am glad Tesla’s future doesn’t depend on these people’s opinions.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#239
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Musk is more optimistic than you Indeed. What Musk says and what Tesla delivers are two completely separate things.

If my anecdote is useful for anything, my car drives about 90% of my 25mi commute today on its own, including leaving one highway and going over a ramp to then merge into another highway. Needless to say that I’m extremely happy with what has been delivered so far.

I think a careful interpretation shows how far that is. A self-driving system ought not be considered reliable until it can drive O(100 million miles) without disconnecting once, in order to match human reliability (that's about the distance between fatal accidents currently). A guaranteed disconnect within 25 miles is many zeros of missing reliability.

A Disney park engineer once relayed to me the philosophy for designing safe attractions in the parks: "If there's a one in a million chance of it happening, it'll happen multiple times per year," given attendance numbers which are in the millions.

A self-driving car needs to handle ordinary commute circumstances with 100.0% reliability, and one-in-a-million circumstances (which statistically you will have never personally encountered) with reliability literally above 99%.

Re: After 6 months of working fine, Tesla software update drives at barriers again

#240
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Musk is more optimistic than you Indeed. What Musk says and what Tesla delivers are two completely separate things.

If my anecdote is useful for anything, my car drives about 90% of my 25mi commute today on its own, including leaving one highway and going over a ramp to then merge into another highway. Needless to say that I’m extremely happy with what has been delivered so far.

Hope your car doesn't drive you into a wall then.
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