Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

simulacrum.cc

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

261–270 of 681 posts

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#261

Post by absherwin »

jellicle wrote: post #146
crazygringo wrote: post #73

> "How would we pay for it? We could start by getting corporations to pay their taxes." I don't know why people keep harping on corporate taxes. If anything, taxing corporations is regressive -- the taxes ultimately get passed on to consumers through higher product prices, regardless of their income levels. Taxing corporations doesn't produce magic money -- it's still taxing people in the end, but it's the consumers.…

> If anything, taxing corporations is regressive -- the taxes ultimately get passed on to consumers through higher product prices, regardless of their income levels. Actually, the studies show that corporate taxes are essentially a proxy for the taxing the ultra-wealthy - a cut in the corporate tax rate is very similar to cutting the highest marginal income tax rate. After all, if corporate taxes truly fell on the po…

It's not that simple. Of course, the direct effect of corporate taxes is mostly on the wealthy who own most of the stock but that's not necessarily the group who gets most of the wealth--more on that below. Even in terms of direct payments, wealth isn't the only important factor. As significant is a company's willingness to be creative. I have never seen a corporate tax scheme that's ungamable that doesn't involve giving the IRS more discretion post-hoc in applying the law nor is one feasible in practice given the resources a company tends to devote to minimizing a multi-billion dollar tax bill. So we have the perverse situation where, to a significant degree, tax creativity is a productive economic activity and belief in adhering more closely to the spirit of the law of punished with higher taxes.

As for the economic payers. Consider what happens if we eliminate corporate taxes: The company has more money. It can use that money in three general ways: Lower prices, raise pay or return it to shareholders. In a company with little competition, the optimal calculation is fairly simple. Does the additional return enable new entrants at current prices? Do we have employees who could leave and create competition and to what extent does the additional cash-flow make it more likely? In a competitive environment, the right answer is based on the sensitivity of profit to talent, the sensitivity of talent to pay increases, and the sensitivity of consumers to price decreases.

Given this different factors, what's the empirical answer? It varies based on circumstance and no one can say definitively. Here's an example of one attempt to answer based on variation in European tax rates that suggests that 49% of the taxes are paid by workers: http://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/51691/1/66322666X.pdf. You can find many more papers with different points of view through your favorite search engine.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#262

Post by k-mcgrady »

chiph wrote: post #237
kyllo wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never really heard of anyone proposing a weekly payment from the state, which is enough to live comfortably on I've heard of lots of people proposing a very small guaranteed payment from the state, as in, bare minimum for subsistence-level food and shelter, on the order of $10,000/year. You would not be able to "party every night for life" on such a pension. The idea is that it would lubricate the job market, re…

I strongly suspect that the Basic Income Guarantee would receive increases in excess of the rate of inflation, as politicians use it to buy votes. I think the $10k/yr figure that was quoted is unrealistic - that would cover food expenses with not much left over for housing costs. Even in a low-cost part of the nation, they'd have to perform work of some kind to earn more.

That's a crazy amount of money to spend on food. Does that figure include buying food for multiple people? As a single person that's more than 5X what I spend on food. In fact $10K would completely cover my food and rent for a year with a small bit left over. Obviously this will differ from place to place and person to person.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#263

Post by rayiner »

unclebucknasty wrote: post #149
crazygringo wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but its pretty self-evident that the effect on actual prices is dependent on price elasticity of demand in the markets for particular products Of course, but there's still the "minimum profitability" that a business seeks to have. Suppose three firms compete to sell widget X, and consumers are willing to pay up to $10 for it, but the companies sell it at $5 due to competition (it costs $4 to make and distribute). T…

> "corporate taxes are ultimately passed onto people" I don't really get this argument. It's always made as if the taxes are applied in a vacuum where market forces no longer exist. If corporations are operating in a competitive market, they will seek cost advantages and continue to compete for market share. Raised taxes represent an additional expense (for the purposes of this discussion), much like raised energy pr…

> Raised taxes represent an additional expense (for the purposes of this discussion)

Raised income taxes aren't really an additional expense, because they are taken out of after-tax net income, not gross income. That complicates the analysis substantially.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#264

Post by k-mcgrady »

dgallagher wrote: post #150

Every single adult member receives a weekly payment from the state, which is enough to live comfortably on. The only condition is citizenship and/or residency. Sweet! None of us have to work anymore! Party at my place every night for life! You get the basic income whether or not you’re employed, any wages you earn are additional. Few, that's a relief. It'll be nice to close all of the school's down and tell kids they…

>> "Who wants to volunteer to clean my toilet and mow my lawn?"

You can't clean your own toilet and mow your own lawn? Especially considering you would have more time to do it with a guaranteed basic income.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#265

Post by ewams »

enko wrote: post #181
dgallagher wrote: post #150

Every single adult member receives a weekly payment from the state, which is enough to live comfortably on. The only condition is citizenship and/or residency. Sweet! None of us have to work anymore! Party at my place every night for life! You get the basic income whether or not you’re employed, any wages you earn are additional. Few, that's a relief. It'll be nice to close all of the school's down and tell kids they…

This is a really unhelpful comment. Why don't you think for a second next time before rushing out some snarky, superficial nonsense. Of course people would still work, for the same reason you don't still live with your parents - although judging by your response, maybe you do. Are you personally going to be perfectly content with a $10K/yr subsistence allowance? And closing all schools? What are you talking about? Th…

Can you please explain how and why living with one's parents is an insult?

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#266

Post by aidenn0 »

The single biggest issue with BI is that there is some fraction of the population that will fritter it away and starve.

Most people proposing BI are economic liberals so have the point of view "If we gave them enough money to live off of and they wasted it, it's no longer our problem" but that doesn't sit will with the rest of the population that aren't economic liberals.

Even if you buy into that view, you still have to deal with the increased crime from starving desperate people; it costs a lot more than $10k per year to keep someone incarcerated, so inevitably non-violent offenders will be paroled only to offend again.

[edit] Perhaps those downvoting me could let me know why? I'd like to know how my comment detracts from the conversation on this article.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#267

Post by zxcdw »

mikekij wrote: post #53

Do you have any idea how many people would just not work, sit at home, watch TV, and collect their BI check?

I thought it was a good thing that you don't have to work unless you want to do so for additional income.

Which one of us is wrong? Which one of us will be wrong in the future, as more and more jobs can be automated and thus disappear while the amount of people on this planet keeps increasing?

Just remember that the future is now.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#268

Post by antitrust »

The problem with unconditional basic income is that there's no incentive to do anything beyond the minimum.

Like most utopian plans, this idea relies on the belief that humans will get up and do things in large numbers.

We can't even get them to voluntarily recycle and quit beating their kids.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#269

Post by daraul »

streptomycin wrote: post #142
cdoxsey wrote: post #59

I think in the end this wouldn't work. It'd play out something like this: A certain percentage of the population would stop working entirely since they no longer need to. (Particularly when politicians push the basic income amount up to placate constituencies) Because workers bow out of the system certain industries lose productive capacity. Maybe we stop producing enough food, or enough fuel. Prices rise (assuming a…

A certain percentage of the population would stop working entirely since they no longer need to. True. The problem is, as things are now, a certain percentage of the population will be forced to stop working as they are made obsolete by increasingly efficient globalization and automation. As that percentage increases, eventually either society will collapse or something fundamental will have to change (such as implem…

This is a powerful point to ignore. The Great Recession has shown this trend might be establishing itself already; the percentage of people not participating in the workforce in any fashion spiked, hasn't recovered, and isn't showing promising signs of ever recovering.

What a basic income will tend to do however is reduce the need for a minimum wage. Currently the minimum wage exists to solve a problem: People need to survive, and to do that they need to work enough to enable that. The problem is with workforce participation being compulsory, absent a minimum wage the price for labor in unskilled work rapidly drops. Where you can find someone desperate for 7.00 an hour, you'll find someone else equally desperate willing to take 6.90 an hour. There will be yet another person willing to take 6.80, and this trend continues until you reach a point where you're better off scraping whatever you can do to survive.

So it's actually preferential for the labor force to shrink some; instead of everyone competing for the tiniest slice of a paycheck just for survival, you'd have a labor force with much more power, ensuring that you don't have to settle for work at 7.50 an hour just to eat. On the contrary: You'll stand on a corner and flip a signboard around in the air for 20 bucks a day only if it's worth your time, and to buy the extra 6-pack or whatever you desire, but don't need to survive.

Re: Trends that will create demand for an Unconditional Basic Income

#270

Post by danbmil99 »

Nursie wrote: post #242
mahyarm wrote: post #238

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Among us highly motivated and educated people who read HN regularly, it seems somewhat foreign that large swaths of the population will revert to just drinking beer, smoking legal weed, playing video games, watching tv, eating McDonalds and living in their RV or subsided apartment and not use birth control. But large swaths of the population already do this.

>> large swaths of the population already do this. They do indeed. And why not let them? Most of what they could do with their time is being automated away, and the front-line service industries (restaurants, coffee houses) can only take on so many. Does there not ever come a point when we can say we're rich enough as a society to support those who can't meaningfully contribute? That even without their effort we have…

> Does there not ever come a point when we can say we're rich enough as a society to support those who can't meaningfully contribute?

You are free to support those who can't meaningfully contribute, but where do you get the moral authority to demand that I do so as well, with my own money?

Besides the moral argument, isn't there a good chance that a permanent underclass with a guaranteed welfare income will overpopulate in relation to those who are "meaningfully contributing", to the point where the ratio is so bad that the system breaks down?

Post reply on HN