Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter • Hacker News Board

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#261

Post by timr » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:09 PM UTC

Noaidi wrote: post #246

timr wrote: post #242

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oops. Links got truncated. Here: Figure 11-9: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure... Figure 11-2: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/figures/chapter-11/figure... Chapter 11: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/

> What is happening, right now, is that winters are mostly getting warmer. Summers are getting hotter in certain places, but not at nearly the rate that cold days are decreasing -- and the evidence is weaker on a global scale. From the IPCC 6AR report, figure 11-9 shows it clearly: Thanks. Crazy that you think even these graphs, which do not include the last six years, are just fine. Climate change is not just about…

> Crazy that you think even these graphs, which do not include the last six years, are just fine.

Did I say those words?

This is the latest assessment report, AR6, published 2021-2023. It's the latest IPCC data available. The next one won't come out until after 2029.

The fact that you don't understand this indicates that you don't really know the details of what you're talking about.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#262

Post by nec4b » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:09 PM UTC

vrganj wrote: post #157

vixen99 wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're not going to do anything at all without money as a fungible exchange mechanism (a sometime measure of 'value'). Capitalists see value in things and try to generate that value. Yes, politicians and the rest of us have the job of regulating that process and sometime fail to do a good job. Do you know the right thing to do? I doubt it. You seriously do not see this as an immensely complicated issue? Finally pleas…

> Capitalists see value in things and try to generate that value Value for who? Value as determined by who? > Finally please give chapter and verse for the 'dying'. You're commenting on it right now. Rivers here are drying out. Glaciers are melting. Forests are burning. How long do you think we can keep going like this? > Maybe compare the world of 2026 with that of 1900 and the quality of life for people in general…

>>Value for who? Value as determined by who?

Value for us, real people who have needs. We decide what we want to buy and not some apparatchik on their pedestal.

>>Rivers here are drying out. Glaciers are melting. Forests are burning.

As if this never happened before capitalism?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#263

Post by mlsu » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:10 PM UTC

bix6 wrote: post #13

Great write up but bummed to not see any info about the waves. It’s been a bonkers summer!

Check out stormsurf001 on YouTube. He’s been tracking the development of the El Niño for months now.

I (SoCal) kinda hate El Niño. Seems like it always means way more weather (blown out days) and most reefs around here are maxed out beyond overhead. It’s nice to get lots of groundswell but I’ll take 2-3 and high pressure over 6-7 and rainy any day.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#264

Post by vrganj » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:14 PM UTC

nec4b wrote: post #262

vrganj wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Capitalists see value in things and try to generate that value Value for who? Value as determined by who? > Finally please give chapter and verse for the 'dying'. You're commenting on it right now. Rivers here are drying out. Glaciers are melting. Forests are burning. How long do you think we can keep going like this? > Maybe compare the world of 2026 with that of 1900 and the quality of life for people in general…

>>Value for who? Value as determined by who? Value for us, real people who have needs. We decide what we want to buy and not some apparatchik on their pedestal. >>Rivers here are drying out. Glaciers are melting. Forests are burning. As if this never happened before capitalism?

Who is "us"? Because in capitalism, only people with capital get to decide what has value.

The values of the poor are not reflected. The values of the indigenous are not reflected. The values of the non-capitalist are not reflected. The value of the unborn is not reflected. The value of nature is not reflected.

The glacier doesn't participate in the market and neither does the river. Are they without value?

> As if this never happened before capitalism?

That's correct. Look at the graph I posted above, you'll notice that things weren't always this hot. Before capitalism they sure weren't.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#265

Post by vrganj » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC

nec4b wrote: post #258

vrganj wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I really appreciate the self-reflective answer and I fully understand the conflict. You seem like a thoughtful dude, kudos. I fully agree with your assessment about capitalism devolving into either fascism or some sort of feudalism. I, too, have been struggling with what a more just system could look like. Personally, some aspects of Yugoslav worker self-management appeal to me. Basic idea is: Companies compete on a…

Yugoslavia failed spectacularly economically. People had to smuggle bananas, diapers, coffee and jeans among other goods from the neighboring Italy and Austria. Millions of people (Gastarbeiter) migrated to Germany to be able support their families, because there was no opportunity at home. Inflation was horrendous, people exchanged the local currency to german marks on the same day as the payday, otherwise by the ne…

First of all, as already acknowledged above Yugoslavia wasn't perfect - I'm not sure what you're trying to get at here. As already mentioned, I'm not arguing for copying their entire setup wholesale - I just find the specific bits I pointed out interesting. Democracy comes was both invented and then repopularized by societies of slave holders, but that doesn't mean we have to throw out the baby with the bath water!

Inflation was horrendous in many countries, including lots of very capitalist ones. Think Weimar Germany for a famous example, or the Latin American debt crises of the 80s and 90s for ones contemporaneous with Yugoslavia (note also the IMF involvement here)

In the case of Yugoslavia, there's a good argument to be made that the root cause were western trade barriers as part of the successful plan to push it into IMF loans that could then be used to dismantle the country.

Anyways, why are we even religitating the 20th century? We need to be looking forward and figuring out a solution to the crisis right in front of us instead of going all cold war again. The forest are burning right now. The rivers are running low right now. Yugoslavia, however you may feel about it, ended decades ago.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#266

Post by cumshitpiss » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:16 PM UTC

zahlman wrote: post #93

fHr wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If only China and US could get their shit together....

Per capita CO2 emissions in the US are down about 36% from their 1973 peak ( https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions ).

[dead]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#267

Post by [deleted] » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:32 PM UTC

mort96 wrote: post #114

tomjen3 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would have been doable if we could have switched to nuclear, but no.

It would've helped a ton but it's not like electricity generation is the only source of emissions. You can't run a car or a plane on nuclear power. You can technically run a cargo ship on nuclear power but that's also not gonna happen. Yet transport is the second largest source of emissions. Batteries have only recently-ish gotten energy dense and cheap enough for electric cars to be competitive, completely different…

[deleted]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#268

Post by Chris660 » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:39 PM UTC

I found myself moved by this recent interview with Prof. Kevin Anderson on the topic of climate change (and associated politics): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBFos_T7cT0

He paints quite a bleak picture of the situation we are in (I tend to agree), but there's also a glimmer of hope in there.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#269

Post by Noaidi » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:44 PM UTC

alt227 wrote: post #254

Noaidi wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This El Nino is expected to be worse than that based on the El Nino 3.4 temperatures we are already seeing. This is why most weather people are talking about it so much. We do not have the same data for the 1877 event that we do for the last strongest El Nino in 1997. And this one is much stronger than that by far: https://xcancel.com/BenNollWeather/status/208864941472211787...

> expected to be worse Lets not speculate, currently there have been worse ones in the past. If this eventually becomes more extreme then yes it will become a big talking point, but it is not there yet.

It’s not called speculation. It’s called the scientific extrapolation. The reason why we do this is to prevent people from dying. If we wait till it becomes extreme and we’re saddled with food shortages it’s too late.

And currently , this is the worst El Niño ever recorded at this point. El Niño right now is worse than the El Niño in 1997 was at this point. Much worse. We simply don’t have these numbers for 1887.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#270

Post by hananova » Sun, Aug 16, 2026, 4:55 PM UTC

tzs wrote: post #66

hananova wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't set cookies so it doesn't have to ask.

It sets several cookies. Did you mean to say it doesn't set the kind of cookies for which permission is required?

I did not see any cookies on my machine. Maybe it sets cookies outside of the EU?