The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#261

Post by blululu » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 2:41 AM UTC

jmward01 wrote: post #195

tharne wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> “Everything” may be a bit extreme, but seriously, have you already forgotten the lessons learned during the Covid supply shocks? I don't why the mainstream media isn't focusing more on this angle. Five years ago the richest, most powerful, country in the world couldn't get basic medical supplies to its citizens during a public health crisis. That should have terrified us into making major policy changes, but instea…

These cherry-picking arguments are a huge problem and we need to acknowledge that they are. So, we focus on one problem and ignore all the benefits that helped us in that time? The world-wide effort to understand the disease and rapidly develop a vaccine? The world-wide talent pool that feeds our hospitals and clinics? The supply chain that did kick in to fill the holes eventually? An economy that always 'makes its o…

Well China made its own masks and also managed a staff a fully operational medical system and pharmaceutical industry ad the same time. So clearly a single country can do all of this. Furthermore I think most countries would look at how China managed the pandemic and be impressed by the results. The masks are not a singular item. They generalize to a whole slew of critical components that a functioning society needs like pharmaceuticals (and their precursors), or half the global electronics supply chain. These resources exist in a time of peace but in a crunch they will disappear.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#262

Post by trhway » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 2:45 AM UTC

hudon wrote: post #161

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships. When you can manufacture warships, you can protect your economy. or: If all you sell are financial services, and a pandemic hits and you need to protect your people, where will you find masks? We don't need to build literally everything ourselves, that's a reductionist argument, we just need to become a lot more productive than we are now…

>the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships.

Not really. Most of the complexity and value and technology lies in the difference between a civilian ship and a warship. Guns, radars, missiles, gas turbines - all that much more complex and involved tech than just a metal bathtub with a diesel that a regular civilian ship is. Nuclear aircraft carrier has even less common with a civilian ship. Submarine - pretty much nothing in common.

>or: If all you sell are financial services, and a pandemic hits and you need to protect your people, where will you find masks?

Well, we know that emergency stockpile wasn't maintained as a money saving measure. When you sell finservices you actually have more money to maintain stockpile than when you're manufacturing masks. Yet if you're choosing to not maintain the stockpile ...

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#263

Post by runako » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 2:47 AM UTC

Avicebron wrote: post #226

mindslight wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe if we're lucky, one of these sophomores will have an epiphany that military protection and a stable currency are some of the most complex exports , and that getting imports by trading away a self-created currency is a pretty great way to not give away any gold or silver... Just sayin'.

> military protection and a stable currency are some of the most complex exports And how come that always seems seem to come wrapped in ways that inexorably seems to concentrate wealth, so that the benefits of those exports seem to be less evenly distributed?

This was not true in the immediate postwar period. The turning point was roughly the 1980s.

Wealth concentration has been a deliberate US domestic policy for decades. This is, to a large degree, separate from the stability of our currency or military protection. It's the stated intent and logical result of relaxing taxes on the rich while enacting policies designed to hurt the working classes (e.g. reducing union power, not indexing minimum wage to inflation, refusal to address healthcare & housing costs, increasing fees at public universities, cutting existing safety net programs, etc.).

Concentration of wealth is a choice. America is a very rich country and has not always chosen to distribute our wealth this way. Other countries make different choices. We are also allowed to make different choices.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#264

Post by didericis » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 2:53 AM UTC

munksbeer wrote: post #242

didericis wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA already dictates the direction of much of the world economy through its position in the WTO, and you are correct that the tariffs will cause more independent production. That’s part of the intention. Europe specifically is underproductive and the hope is that these tariffs and the change of tone for defense agreements will bolster Europes domestic industrial and defensive capabilities. I also realize how incr…

> and you are correct that the tariffs will cause more independent production. That’s part of the intention. Europe specifically is underproductive and the hope is that these tariffs and the change of tone for defense agreements will bolster Europes domestic industrial and defensive capabilities. > I’m simply explaining the logic behind it I really disagree most strongly that this is the logic behind it. You genuinel…

The message is absolutely America first, and the motivation to boost the middle class through reindustrialization is a huge factor.

The desire to eventually back out of defense commitments in Europe is not in contradiction to that.

The political will to commit troops and to defend Ukraine simply isn’t there, especially not while Taiwan is looming. Wanting Europe to reindustrialize and handle it’s own defense allows America to focus more domestically and on potential wars more aligned with American interests (disruption of chip manufacturing affects America much more than Russian occupation of Ukraine).

I linked to a hoover institute interview with Niall Ferguson explaining a lot of the thinking. You can also just listen to what the administration has been saying themselves. You don’t have to agree with it, but the goal is reindustrialization of both America and Europe so America doesn’t lose it’s defense capabilities and so Europe can defend itself without relying on American support.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#265

Post by thescriptkiddie » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 2:56 AM UTC

obviously re-industrializing a de-industrialized economy is not something that has ever been tried before, it's not clear it would even be desirable, and industrializing in the first place was a traumatic process. that said, machine tools and similar specialized equipment are exactly the kind of high-margin low-volume goods that you want to be manufacturing in a developed country. well, that and microchips.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#266

Post by mmooss » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 2:59 AM UTC

lesuorac wrote: post #158

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

It's an economic theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism The general idea is that when you buy stuff you're losing wealth so if you never buy anything then you never get poorer. Since we constantly dig gold up from the ground we still get richer over time even if nobody buys our stuff. This is also why its importantly to gain colonies (Greenland/ Canada) or mineral rights from other countries so that the…

> historically very popular

When? Not for a long time. Slavery and witchcraft were historically very popular ...

> when you buy stuff you're losing wealth

That's a incredible failure of understanding. I can't believe that's the basis of mercantilism. Why would anyone buy something?

If you buy a house for $100,000, your wealth remains the same - you replace $100,000 in cash with a $100,000 house (ignoring complexities like a mortgage, transaction costs, etc.). That is basic accounting, of course.

In fact, your wealth probably increases: The house's value is $100,000 to the buyer, or else they would be disinclined to make the effort of making the deal - it would be like trading a $10 bill for a $10 bill, with lots of time and transaction costs. Market value - the value to others - may remain the same or vary, of course.

The economy works because people make these value-increasing transactions. I take $10 of inputs, manufacture $20 worth of output, and sell it to you for $15. We both gain $5. If your business isn't producing more output than its input, you're going to be out of business soon.

Many transactions are better with people who happen to be outside the borders of your country - why wouldn't they be?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#267

Post by Spooky23 » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 3:02 AM UTC

hudon wrote: post #161

jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships. When you can manufacture warships, you can protect your economy. or: If all you sell are financial services, and a pandemic hits and you need to protect your people, where will you find masks? We don't need to build literally everything ourselves, that's a reductionist argument, we just need to become a lot more productive than we are now…

We had a little event a few years ago that answered your question. You give people money and they make crap. I helped procure like 30M masks. Nature finds a way.

As a society, we’re more productive than we ever have been. We’re not breaking society to create a nation of workshops. This is a cynical power play.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#268

Post by throwaway173738 » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 3:02 AM UTC

blululu wrote: post #256

slg wrote: post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships. When you can manufacture warships, you can protect your economy. The counter to this thinking is that if you intertwine your economic wellbeing with your "enemy" to the point that neither side wants to sever the relationship, you won't need to build many warships. Reversing course back towards isolation in order to give yourself the opti…

In 2020 during the largest public health crisis in a century, non-woven respiratory masks were found to be an effective intervention. The country that manufactured 90% of the world's respiratory masks took care of itself first and foremost at the expense of all other countries. You can't blame them for doing so, but you can avoid this scenario repeating itself in the future.

The US had manufacturers of melt blown masks, but instead of giving those manufacturers long guarantees to build up capacity they decided to just wait for China to build up instead.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#269

Post by didericis » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 3:04 AM UTC

alabastervlog wrote: post #198

didericis wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current international situation as understood by a lot of people in republican circles is outline in detail here: https://youtu.be/vDBZeHhx3YE > The US reliably enforces international order and global trade now Yes, which is why many believe now is the time to revamp our industrial capacity while we still have strategic dominance. The war in Ukraine has illustrated the importance of mass drone production, and we…

You can improve all those things, even fast, without doing… this. Tariffing close allies at the same time as likely or actual foes especially doesn’t make sense. And rather than this weird roundabout approach, the government can just… pay for things to happen. Like, they used to run weapons factories. If that’s the actual reason for this, it would have been a ton cheaper to just fire up a few government factories, co…

Yes, this is a real perspective. Again, I’m not endorsing the approach they’re taking, I’m simply explaining it.

I also don’t think even a moderate introduction of tariffs would have been viewed favorably. Reindustrialization is I think necessary/I agree with the desire to ramp up domestic production and secure supply chains in both America and Europe, but we haven’t done it yet because it’s going to be painful to reverse the current trajectory.

This could very well be a part of a kind of shock deal to get allies to know we’re serious as we negotiate down.

I’m not saying I agree with that tactic, either, and the complaints about the damage in trust are extremely valid.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#270

Post by gkanai » Wed, Apr 09, 2025, 3:04 AM UTC

What is sadly ironic is that every manufacturing industry this administration wants back in the US- the US spent decades getting rid of those exact industries in order to focus on higher wage, higher skill roles in services, etc.

That said, the US should never have gotten rid of industries that are critical for defense such as semiconductor manufacturing and ship building among others. That those industries left the US to go to Japan and then Korea and then now China- those were terrible mistakes that were made.