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The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

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Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#221

Post by mindslight »

lesuorac wrote: post #158
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

It's an economic theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism The general idea is that when you buy stuff you're losing wealth so if you never buy anything then you never get poorer. Since we constantly dig gold up from the ground we still get richer over time even if nobody buys our stuff. This is also why its importantly to gain colonies (Greenland/ Canada) or mineral rights from other countries so that the…

Maybe if we're lucky, one of these sophomores will have an epiphany that military protection and a stable currency are some of the most complex exports, and that getting imports by trading away a self-created currency is a pretty great way to not give away any gold or silver... Just sayin'.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#222

Post by [deleted] »

jkubicek wrote: post #64
turtlesdown11 wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quit the hyperbole. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN https://www.brookings.edu/articles/global-manufacturing-scor... > Manufacturing constitutes 27 percent of China’s overall national output, which accounts for 20 percent of the world’s manufacturing output. In the United States, it represents 12 percent of the nation’s output and 18 percent of the world’s capacity. In Japan, manufacturing is 19 percent of th…

Where is the disconnect between the US being the #2 manufacturer in the world and my sense of doom and gloom about Trumps trade-war attack on our trading partners? I suspect it's this: > Advanced manufacturing technology development can be found throughout the United States. In Indiana for example, Rolls Royce, which makes jet engines, employs thousands of engineers. Zimmer Biomet makes surgical products in Warsaw, I…

[deleted]

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#223

Post by bitmasher9 »

lesuorac wrote: post #158
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

It's an economic theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism The general idea is that when you buy stuff you're losing wealth so if you never buy anything then you never get poorer. Since we constantly dig gold up from the ground we still get richer over time even if nobody buys our stuff. This is also why its importantly to gain colonies (Greenland/ Canada) or mineral rights from other countries so that the…

It is really effective at increasing the amount of gold in your vault, but The Wealth of Nations (Admin Smith) made a strong case against that primary goal. Crucially for the HackerNews crowd, Mercantilism increases the value of physical goods relative to services, and services becomes a smaller portion of the overall economy. Most of us sell server-time wrapped in software that performs a service…

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#224

Post by SideQuark »

michaelhoney wrote: post #188
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

the reductive, absurd version of something is reductive and absurd, but that doesn't mean that the nuanced, appropriate version is wrong

But it provides a tool to see how and why the “nuanced, appropriate version” is actually wrong.

When one limits the choices for purchases or sales, one reduces efficiency, whether it’s limiting to products made at your home, in your city, in your state, or even in your country. It’s failed for so many centuries across hundreds of countries and attempts that it’s not even a question except among politicians stoking fear to gain votes.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#225

Post by SideQuark »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #196
mechagodzilla wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So applying this to China and the USA - the USA has a median household income of ~$80k, and China, in terms of purchasing power parity, has a median household income of $32k. China has a workforce of ~775M people vs 163M people in the USA. The USA has ~7M unemployed people. For the USA to stop importing goods from China, we would need to 1) stop consuming those goods altogether (even if they're intermediate goods tha…

> the equivalent of ~20M people's output if we naively scale Or about 12% of the US labor force. Meanwhile the 12th percentile US income is ~$22,000, i.e. less than the $32k median in China, and half of the jobs there are above that median. Obviously these numbers are all useless napkin math and none of it really works like that, but the premise isn't inherently absurd. If China is subsidizing manufacturing in order…

The US manufactures more than ever, and the % of GDP in manufacturing has been flat for 70+ years now. The jobs didn’t leave, so they’re never coming back. They got automated. Just like we need vastly less farmers than in 1900 to farm more than ever, we need vastly manufacturing jobs to manufacture more than ever.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#226

Post by Avicebron »

mindslight wrote: post #221
lesuorac wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's an economic theory - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mercantilism The general idea is that when you buy stuff you're losing wealth so if you never buy anything then you never get poorer. Since we constantly dig gold up from the ground we still get richer over time even if nobody buys our stuff. This is also why its importantly to gain colonies (Greenland/ Canada) or mineral rights from other countries so that the…

Maybe if we're lucky, one of these sophomores will have an epiphany that military protection and a stable currency are some of the most complex exports , and that getting imports by trading away a self-created currency is a pretty great way to not give away any gold or silver... Just sayin'.

> military protection and a stable currency are some of the most complex exports

And how come that always seems seem to come wrapped in ways that inexorably seems to concentrate wealth, so that the benefits of those exports seem to be less evenly distributed?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#227

Post by AnthonyMouse »

SideQuark wrote: post #225
AnthonyMouse wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the equivalent of ~20M people's output if we naively scale Or about 12% of the US labor force. Meanwhile the 12th percentile US income is ~$22,000, i.e. less than the $32k median in China, and half of the jobs there are above that median. Obviously these numbers are all useless napkin math and none of it really works like that, but the premise isn't inherently absurd. If China is subsidizing manufacturing in order…

The US manufactures more than ever, and the % of GDP in manufacturing has been flat for 70+ years now. The jobs didn’t leave, so they’re never coming back. They got automated. Just like we need vastly less farmers than in 1900 to farm more than ever, we need vastly manufacturing jobs to manufacture more than ever.

Automation increases production efficiency. Jevon's paradox says this will generally increase consumption, and in fact it has, so US consumption has gone up but production is flat. The difference comes from increasing imports from manufacturing in China. If the US manufactured the additional stuff instead of importing it, it would have more manufacturing jobs than it does now.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#228

Post by bitmasher9 »

xenadu02 wrote: post #211

I just bought a lathe to lock in prices before tariffs cause them to rise. Its a hobby I've wanted to get into for a long time. There are no manufacturers of screw cutting lathes (a variant of engine lathes and what most people think of as a manual lathe) left in the USA. If you look at old 60s/70s catalogs of lathes the basic models would cost around $15,000 in adjusted money. The Chinese imports are $3000. Could so…

A lot of manufacturing doesn’t have the market cap to gain investment in the US, lathes included. The total annual lathes sales are <$50b/yr, so you’d have to corner the global market to make it into the Fortune 500. Maybe you could get investment, but you would need killer patents and a working prototype first.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#229

Post by anon84873628 »

dgfitz wrote: post #212
anon84873628 wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It the *right wing* Americans who go bananas calling you a communist. The left by and large wants to implement more social programs to reduce inequality and allow the growth of a middle class in our existing economy. You could probably say this is the crux of the culture war.

I have never understood this. If everyone is educated, who is going to collect your garbage, fix your car, replace your broken pipe in the wall, cut down the rest of the tree that fell across the street, stock your groceries, sell you fast food, drive trucks across the country, build houses and buildings, pump septic tanks… I can keep going. I don’t get it, never have. Education is not some magical bullet. In fact, h…

Did you mean to respond to my comment? I didn't mention education so don't really understand how it connects.

No one is saying to get rid of the jobs you mentioned. The goal is to make it so people working those jobs can provide for their families, have health care, have appropriate time off, and generally work with dignity.

And I should clarify that most of what you mentioned fall in the "middle class" category, including building houses, driving trucks, serving food, and pumping septic tanks. Cost disease (especially in housing and healthcare) has made these less stable occupations than they should be.

College education should be accessible and affordable for people who want to pursue it. I agree that it has been way over-emphasized in recent decades and had a similar experience to you. "Get an education" was a cop out excuse to paper over the structural problems occuring underneath (while tuition costs ballooned). For sure the pendulum has already started to swing the other way though.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#230

Post by slg »

hudon wrote: post #161
jmward01 wrote: post #142

I keep seeing people advocating that the idea that we should build everything, and every piece or everything, here is a good one. Why? Is this just an isolationist dream? The reductive, absurd, extreme of this is why don't individual people go out and build all their own stuff like cars and houses. Let's all go out and learn how to mine and refine metal ore so we can get started on building the family sedan! There is…

the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships. When you can manufacture warships, you can protect your economy. or: If all you sell are financial services, and a pandemic hits and you need to protect your people, where will you find masks? We don't need to build literally everything ourselves, that's a reductionist argument, we just need to become a lot more productive than we are now…

>the gist is: When you can manufacture ships, you can also manufacture warships. When you can manufacture warships, you can protect your economy.

The counter to this thinking is that if you intertwine your economic wellbeing with your "enemy" to the point that neither side wants to sever the relationship, you won't need to build many warships. Reversing course back towards isolation in order to give yourself the option to build warships increases the odds that you will end up having to build those warships because you have now made it easier for both countries to go to war.

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