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China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

japannews.yomiuri.co.jp

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Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#261

Post by worrycue »

joecool1029 wrote: post #250
klodolph wrote: post #237

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am less convinced that China is really good at playing the long game, and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles that we see in the US. It’s just so easy to tap into our fears of China that we want to believe that they’re this smart and ruthless. We look for evidence to validate our feelings. There are deposits of these rare earth minerals elsewhere. There are always more depos…

>and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles Who's going to vote their government out or jam things up with filibuster? For better or worse their government just 'does'. You cannot seriously compare a system like this to US/UK democracy paralyzation during things like COVID. I do not think their system is better or worse, it's just not subject to any kind of politics internally th…

> Who's going to vote their government out or jam things up with filibuster?

Losing an election in the US just means you are out of a job - and lose all its perks.

Losing power in an authoritarian government could mean you are arrested for “corruption” and sentenced to death.

The paranoia (and occasional country sabotaging acts) of CCP critters are justified as it’s a no holds barred fight for power and survival.

https://archive.is/d9OsU

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#262

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Animatronio wrote: post #127
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the US, after all, is allowed to militarize the South China sea The U.S. doesn’t claim the sea as its sovereign waters. China does. (Which had the totally unpredictable effect of majorly pissing off every one of its maritime neighbours.)

Not true, China's claims are best known in the West because everybody hates/fears them. But there are others - like the dispute between Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines regarding maritime borders.

> the dispute between Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines regarding maritime borders

There are disputes over territorial waters and EEZs. China uniquely claims the whole damn thing, not as its exclusive economic zone, but its sovereign territory. The Philippines aren't asking for the right to tax ships passing through its EEZ, it just wants to fish and drill and mine them.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#263

Post by NicoJuicy »

I am going to bet that Xi is severely overplaying his hand.

They need to provide 1 billion people. I remember even an outbreak over porkmeat (1 disease) and milk powder was a national emergency. There's even a whole army of fishing boats...

China is not self reliant on food and if a war would break out, China is going to be in scrambles pretty fast.

Sure, They can contain protests in a region of China, but not across the country.

Unfortunately, i think we'll have to find out sooner or later.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#264

Post by ProjectArcturis »

lenkite wrote: post #116
anonymouskimmer wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Possible access to, and control of, most of the world's top chip manufacturing node fabs. > other than nationalistic fervor And as you said, this. Jingoism can be used to bolster those in power. I don't know that Xi could use this boost at this point in his career, but as he seems to want to be Chairman-for-life, he may need it eventually.

Not really. The U.S. really has its blinkers fully on if folks think that controlling the node fabs is a reason for the Chinese invasion. They are not dumbos - they know the foundries will be destroyed immediately. The reason is simple - China has always considered Taiwan part of China and the U.S. agreed to that position, before it first became "strategic ambiguity" and then it became "Taiwanese Independence" under…

>Do you think the U.S. would accept Chinese military aid to Cuba with the Cubans armed with Chinese weapons and the presence of Chinese troops in Cuba ?

We accepted this exact scenario during the Cold War with Soviet troops. We wouldn't start a nuclear war to kick them out.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#265

Post by seanmcdirmid »

worrycue wrote: post #261
joecool1029 wrote: post #250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>and more convinced that China is subject to many of the same political struggles Who's going to vote their government out or jam things up with filibuster? For better or worse their government just 'does'. You cannot seriously compare a system like this to US/UK democracy paralyzation during things like COVID. I do not think their system is better or worse, it's just not subject to any kind of politics internally th…

> Who's going to vote their government out or jam things up with filibuster? Losing an election in the US just means you are out of a job - and lose all its perks. Losing power in an authoritarian government could mean you are arrested for “corruption” and sentenced to death. The paranoia (and occasional country sabotaging acts) of CCP critters are justified as it’s a no holds barred fight for power and survival. htt…

Look what happened to Hu Jintao at the last party congress. However, China is pretty mellow about this: presidents/party leaders are allowed to retire gracefully since Deng Xiaoping set that precedent. I don't see even Xi or his successor breaking that contract.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#266

Post by brandonmenc »

tomcam wrote: post #204
decafninja wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Face. As an East Asian myself, the amount of stupidity that goes on in all of the East Asian countries at all levels because of “face” is astounding. Call it “honor” or “nationalism” or “XXX Pride” - ultimately all the same thing.

This is the answer. It is so simple and yet so alien to the west that it simply doesn’t register in most people’s minds.

It’s becoming less alien by the day, our refusal to cut tail in Iraq and Afghanistan as evidence.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#267

Post by thrashh »

nobodyandproud wrote: post #257
thrashh wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about? Do you not remember this whole thing? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_missile_defense_... Or the talk about nations joining NATO? Or the discussion about how because we expect Russia to do something, we actually are not sure about NATO anymore because we don't want to be obligated to enter in a war ? Here's an 2021 article about US pressure on Germany to stop the import of more…

> The US did all the things that you are complaining that it didn't do. Strange. Do you believe the US is the entire Western civilization? And do you believe if the entire US believed Russia was going to invade, that we wouldn’t have pressured Germany even more?

No but your point is that it is a weakness of the democratic process when clearly the democratic process created both outcomes.

You also made the point that a weakness of democracy is that it follows the general sentiment, but clearly the US govt didn't give a damn that a lot of people didn't care about Russia or weren't even aware of the things the US govt was doing -- like trying to put US missile installations in other sovereign nations. We tried and tried... for a very long time.

If Germany had an authoritarian leader, it doesn't mean that they would have taken Russia any more seriously. I've heard that Angela Merkel supported the shutdown of nuclear reactors after Fukishima because she wanted to shore up her popularity. An authoritarian leader could have done exactly the same thing -- who doesn't want to look good?

There is a limit to the amount of pressure that the US can put on a country. Crimea already happened and if that wasn't good enough, what was?

Even after Russia did invade Ukraine, the US had to pressure Europe to really look into alternative energy sources (especially after the shutdown of those nuclear reactors) even through winter was coming up and the writing was on the wall. In the end, the US ended up becoming the world's biggest (or 2nd biggest -- don't recall) natural gas exporter this winter just to shore up Europe's heating supplies (which also meant my natural gas bill went up like 3x!).

Ultimately, I don't think democracy can be blamed. We can blame bad leadership in some cases, but that is a problem endemic to every political system.

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#268

Post by JumpCrisscross »

DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #160
Despegar wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the countries in the region have overlapping claims to the waters, it's not unique to China.

Including Taiwan, which makes almost exactly the same claims as China, and which occupies the largest of the islands in the South China Sea.

> Taiwan, which makes almost exactly the same claims as China

Source? I've never heard of Taiwan claiming waters off the coasts of Brunei, Malaysia and Vietnam as China does [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line#/media/File:9_d...

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#269

Post by JumpCrisscross »

CountSessine wrote: post #260
DiogenesKynikos wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo. However, it's becoming increasingly clear that the US is shifting away from the One China policy. That shift is deeply alarming the Chinese government. There doesn't seem to be anyone in American politics who is capable of pressing the breaks, slowing down the drive towards confrontation, and reengaging in real diplomacy with China. In the end, t…

The Chinese government does, at present, strongly favor the status quo. There is only one external event - an event that takes place outside of China - that can seriously disrupt the CCP's rule over China and that is Taiwan successfully declaring independence and international recognition. It would be a humiliating loss of face for the CCP and would probably be followed by a desperate reshuffling within the party and…

> Taiwanese independence would be the nucleating particle for an explosion of domestic unrest and chaos

Honest question: does it have to be? Couldn't they sneer it off and keep doing what they're doing: claim it's a rebellious province they're too busy to deal with?

Re: China plans to ban exports of rare earth magnet tech

#270

Post by jacquesm »

varispeed wrote: post #254
jacquesm wrote: post #230

In a way this is good news. The more China overplays its hand in this undeclared economic war the more likely that Western countries will realize that they are making the exact same mistake with China that they have made with Russia. You can't play nice with dictatorships in the hope that your long term economic interests will be aligned to the point that the other party will be forced to continue to play nice. China…

Most people don't want to try and make things, so they are unaware how incredibly f we are. Like I have little project and needed an enclosure made to order. Nothing fancy. Tried three rather known Western vendors and none could manufacture it to an acceptable standard. It was also very expensive and customer service seemed annoyed that I even want to order anything. I lost a lot of money on this, simply because I di…

Indeed. But thank you for trying!
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